El and Bill
New member
PS Glad to see that the number of 'hits' on Daily Laugh exceeds Uh Oh! :lol:
Uh Oh!
- Thread starter El and Bill
- Start date
El and Bill-
Thanks for the continued advice, both here here and in PM form.
I sensed this was no ordinary recession and that national and world economic and political occurances were leading to and continue to point to a a series of vast changes in our economy and place in the world.
"Batten Down the Hatches" and hold on tight to what ever you can!
Joe. An Appreciative Fan and CV-Brat Friend! :teeth :thup
Thanks for the continued advice, both here here and in PM form.
I sensed this was no ordinary recession and that national and world economic and political occurances were leading to and continue to point to a a series of vast changes in our economy and place in the world.
"Batten Down the Hatches" and hold on tight to what ever you can!
Joe. An Appreciative Fan and CV-Brat Friend! :teeth :thup
Pat Anderson
New member
Jay Leno did a bit on Starbucks' profits being down 97% - "Imagine that - who would have thought that an out of work person wouldn't pay $5 for a cup of coffee!"
On the other side of the picture, the Snoqualmie Casino just opened, 170,000 square feet, and people are stacked up on the freeway back to Issquah trying to get in, I am told it is doing a great business. The CEO was on TV saying "Gaming is pretty much recession-proof" and it appears he may be right. According to my Assistant Manager at the Taproom, we are seeing a big spin-off benefit from the casino. Go figure.
We already changed some of our boating habits just due to the formerly high gas prices, we take shorter local cruises and go slower. Not likely to change that even though gas is back down at least for now. Will probably head back to Lake Powell next September though.
We got hammered on the IRAs like a lot of folks, just didn't recognize what has happening soon enough, couldn't believe it wasn't just about to bottom out. Today it looks like there may BE no bottom...Two main issues for us personally will be deciding on a retirement date, might delay that a year or two, and what conditions will be for selling our house when we do retire, since the house is / was a major asset. Only time will tell, I guess.
On the other side of the picture, the Snoqualmie Casino just opened, 170,000 square feet, and people are stacked up on the freeway back to Issquah trying to get in, I am told it is doing a great business. The CEO was on TV saying "Gaming is pretty much recession-proof" and it appears he may be right. According to my Assistant Manager at the Taproom, we are seeing a big spin-off benefit from the casino. Go figure.
We already changed some of our boating habits just due to the formerly high gas prices, we take shorter local cruises and go slower. Not likely to change that even though gas is back down at least for now. Will probably head back to Lake Powell next September though.
We got hammered on the IRAs like a lot of folks, just didn't recognize what has happening soon enough, couldn't believe it wasn't just about to bottom out. Today it looks like there may BE no bottom...Two main issues for us personally will be deciding on a retirement date, might delay that a year or two, and what conditions will be for selling our house when we do retire, since the house is / was a major asset. Only time will tell, I guess.
handyandy":4zfk1qwz said:
I'm wondering aloud if some of SBucks decline is due to the emergence of McDonalds as serious competition. Their coffee and lattes are quite good....and considerably cheaper.
In the meantime, I think blue chip stock investments are the way to go. Buy stocks from companies who have survived a few storms.
Finally....I read an interesting article in a boating magazine that says we have a downturn every 8 years. The one after 9/11 was scary and shortlived. Hopefully this purging will repeat the previous history.
Meanwhile...I'm sure liking the price of gas and diesel.
-Greg
In the meantime, I think blue chip stock investments are the way to go. Buy stocks from companies who have survived a few storms.
Finally....I read an interesting article in a boating magazine that says we have a downturn every 8 years. The one after 9/11 was scary and shortlived. Hopefully this purging will repeat the previous history.
Meanwhile...I'm sure liking the price of gas and diesel.
-Greg
Good topic to keep alive Bill and El! Personally, I was seeing retirement on the very near horizon.....now I'm not so optimistic but certainly thrilled that I still have a vibrant occupation and there are those that are still and always will be need of our services. Also, pleased that I managed to keep my body healthy so I could continue to do the work I do. What with daughter in 1st year of college and diminishing value of investments (both for college and retirement), I'm at least thrilled that Jessica continues to do well in college and is certainly not wasting our money.
As for boating, I'm still extremely happy that I chose a C-Dory in our lives as I'll always be able to float the boat and after I purchase a couple of oarlocks and oars, I believe that a couple of lovely young ladies can easily power the 22' over to Friday Harbor for the springtime gathering... :wink .
As for boating, I'm still extremely happy that I chose a C-Dory in our lives as I'll always be able to float the boat and after I purchase a couple of oarlocks and oars, I believe that a couple of lovely young ladies can easily power the 22' over to Friday Harbor for the springtime gathering... :wink .
Pat Anderson
New member
Gift certificates to the Taproom would be good...:lol:
dotnmarty":30z9mtml said:
Pat,
I'm not sure about the "recession proof" statement on casinos. I just got back from a 2 day business trip to Reno. We stayed in one of the casinos and according to the staff, business is way off in both Reno and Las Vegas.
I hadn't been in Reno since the early 80's and it was like deja vu all over again. The economy there is way down, the big company that makes gambling equipment there has had major layoffs and the biggest casino in town is bankrupt.
I'm glad to hear that the tribal casino near you is thriving and spilling over on your business. I think it may be because it's new, it's in a great area and Seattle isn't doing as badly as other areas.
I've lived through a few recessions, and this is as bad as I've ever seen for the national and world outlook. When I look down the well with my weak flashlight, I can't see bottom. We were looking at bigger boats (trawlers) and boy I'm glad we didn't buy one of them. I want all of the cash (and lack of debt) that I can get right now as a buffer against this economic environment.
Lyle
I'm not sure about the "recession proof" statement on casinos. I just got back from a 2 day business trip to Reno. We stayed in one of the casinos and according to the staff, business is way off in both Reno and Las Vegas.
I hadn't been in Reno since the early 80's and it was like deja vu all over again. The economy there is way down, the big company that makes gambling equipment there has had major layoffs and the biggest casino in town is bankrupt.
I'm glad to hear that the tribal casino near you is thriving and spilling over on your business. I think it may be because it's new, it's in a great area and Seattle isn't doing as badly as other areas.
I've lived through a few recessions, and this is as bad as I've ever seen for the national and world outlook. When I look down the well with my weak flashlight, I can't see bottom. We were looking at bigger boats (trawlers) and boy I'm glad we didn't buy one of them. I want all of the cash (and lack of debt) that I can get right now as a buffer against this economic environment.
Lyle
Brat's,
As usual, Bill broached a great topic....
Certainly a basket of interesting things going-on in the national/international economies. The USD is higher than it's been in a Long time even with all the bad news at home, of course that's a reflection of a downward spiraling global economy (folks are diving into the USD thinking it's a safe haven [like bonds, full faith and credit and all that]).
At the moment we are witnessing deflationary impacts across the wide (but narrowing) economic landscape, but with the massive monetization the US Treasury/Fed is doing to stave-off a depression, they are likely fueling a seriously inflationary jump (some call it hyperinflation...) over the horizon. Bottomline: the USD is for the moment still the world's Reserve currency, and there may not be a serious competitor (although the recent G20+BRIC banker's may be exploring the options).
My concerns are somewhat beyond the Market (as though that isn't Enough!). Our financial mismanagers, both in gov't and on Wall Street, have it well within their grasp to kill the USD as a viable currency inspiteof its current strength. One option just beneath the surface is a new monetary unit, worldwide or regional (e.g. the "Amero") which might be based on something tangible to replace the various global fiat currency systems. Banker's might love the idea but politicians would hate it (would limit their profligate ways....).
What to do in the mean time? #1 reduce personal debt load to the extent possible (unless we witness an official USD devaluation in which case savers will get Screwed big time). #2 Moderate your lifestyle, and keep your financial powder dry and in cash or insured cash equivalents. #3 Spend your money on needed tangibles. #4 Lay-in some supplies. #5 Prepare your (re)investment pipelines for the possibility of coming buying opportunities (...but we're not there Yet. These are not the financial Endtimes; just the tribulation.). #6 Do your investing homework in preparation for a change in market direction (although it may be quite a ways down the road - in the meantime beware of Bear Market Rallies). #7 Be prepared to assist family where advisable. #8 Review how you can best utilize your C-Dory as your personal escape machine amid a current and coming turbulent time!
I'm still working on item #9 and #10...but I think "Visit the Taproom" might be #9.
Best,
Casey Casebeer
(vice) C-Dory Naknek
currently in Arizona, and back to The Villages (FL) in a couple weeks
As usual, Bill broached a great topic....
Certainly a basket of interesting things going-on in the national/international economies. The USD is higher than it's been in a Long time even with all the bad news at home, of course that's a reflection of a downward spiraling global economy (folks are diving into the USD thinking it's a safe haven [like bonds, full faith and credit and all that]).
At the moment we are witnessing deflationary impacts across the wide (but narrowing) economic landscape, but with the massive monetization the US Treasury/Fed is doing to stave-off a depression, they are likely fueling a seriously inflationary jump (some call it hyperinflation...) over the horizon. Bottomline: the USD is for the moment still the world's Reserve currency, and there may not be a serious competitor (although the recent G20+BRIC banker's may be exploring the options).
My concerns are somewhat beyond the Market (as though that isn't Enough!). Our financial mismanagers, both in gov't and on Wall Street, have it well within their grasp to kill the USD as a viable currency inspiteof its current strength. One option just beneath the surface is a new monetary unit, worldwide or regional (e.g. the "Amero") which might be based on something tangible to replace the various global fiat currency systems. Banker's might love the idea but politicians would hate it (would limit their profligate ways....).
What to do in the mean time? #1 reduce personal debt load to the extent possible (unless we witness an official USD devaluation in which case savers will get Screwed big time). #2 Moderate your lifestyle, and keep your financial powder dry and in cash or insured cash equivalents. #3 Spend your money on needed tangibles. #4 Lay-in some supplies. #5 Prepare your (re)investment pipelines for the possibility of coming buying opportunities (...but we're not there Yet. These are not the financial Endtimes; just the tribulation.). #6 Do your investing homework in preparation for a change in market direction (although it may be quite a ways down the road - in the meantime beware of Bear Market Rallies). #7 Be prepared to assist family where advisable. #8 Review how you can best utilize your C-Dory as your personal escape machine amid a current and coming turbulent time!
I'm still working on item #9 and #10...but I think "Visit the Taproom" might be #9.
Best,
Casey Casebeer
(vice) C-Dory Naknek
currently in Arizona, and back to The Villages (FL) in a couple weeks
Casey
That's the best analyzes on this topic I've read here so far. Of course that could be due to you mirroring my own thinking. Come on up to Yellowstone this summer and we'll kick back and work on #10.
We have several pricey items we would like to purchase before retirement in approximately l9 months and your comments on USD & possible upcoming hyperinflation (which has been and remains the biggest financial concern we have for our future) looms large in our consideration of when we should make the purchases or even if some that we've planned on for a long time should now be dropped from the list.
Jay
That's the best analyzes on this topic I've read here so far. Of course that could be due to you mirroring my own thinking. Come on up to Yellowstone this summer and we'll kick back and work on #10.
We have several pricey items we would like to purchase before retirement in approximately l9 months and your comments on USD & possible upcoming hyperinflation (which has been and remains the biggest financial concern we have for our future) looms large in our consideration of when we should make the purchases or even if some that we've planned on for a long time should now be dropped from the list.
Jay
Westfield 11
New member
I think you might be preparing for the wrong storm, rather than inflation, I think the big danger is from a deflationary spiral. Once people get into the habit of waiting for prices to drop before buying then that just feeds the collapsing retail sales and thus causing layoffs everywhere. At least there is a known cure for inflation no matter how painful it may be: tight monetary supply. No one really knows how to fix a deflation. It might all look good at first, prices are lower and you can get more for your buck, but soon millions are out of work and wages for those lucky to have a job plummet. Farmers get lower prices until it makes no sense to plant at a loss, steel producers have no market since no one is making anything because what buyers are left are waiting for prices to drop even more before buying anything. The same in service businesses, they cut prices to compete in a shrinking market. And so it goes....
Most of this is happening right now, but just like a year ago, people refuse the see what is in front of them. There were many warning signs of the housing bust, the credit collapse and the stock market crash, a few people tried to warn the public, but no one listened. The whole idea of buying "blue chip" stocks is crazy when the market is going to fall another 50%, it will take a decade or more to get back to your starting point and thats after the recovery starts. Who can guess when that will be? It makes no sense to buy into a market that is at 7500 if it is going to go down to 3000. Wait until there are two consecutive quarters of gain and then get aboard the train.
There are worse things than missing out on a few % of gain: like losing all of your capital. My father taught me this a long time ago and I have been 100% cash since last January. We keep our money in FDIC insured accounts in a variety of banks, money markets and Treasuries. Sure we lost out on the tail end of the bull market, but we also got off on almost the top floor, now the elevator is plunging towards the basement.
Most of this is happening right now, but just like a year ago, people refuse the see what is in front of them. There were many warning signs of the housing bust, the credit collapse and the stock market crash, a few people tried to warn the public, but no one listened. The whole idea of buying "blue chip" stocks is crazy when the market is going to fall another 50%, it will take a decade or more to get back to your starting point and thats after the recovery starts. Who can guess when that will be? It makes no sense to buy into a market that is at 7500 if it is going to go down to 3000. Wait until there are two consecutive quarters of gain and then get aboard the train.
There are worse things than missing out on a few % of gain: like losing all of your capital. My father taught me this a long time ago and I have been 100% cash since last January. We keep our money in FDIC insured accounts in a variety of banks, money markets and Treasuries. Sure we lost out on the tail end of the bull market, but we also got off on almost the top floor, now the elevator is plunging towards the basement.
Great post, Casey. It brought me back to my post in January of Hell Year 2008:
It has been and still is a wild ride, with (IMHO) an end on the horizon but not necessarily in sight. Lots of hand wringing will go on between now and then. This morning's Morningstar article is pretty clear about the five reminders for market sanity. My economics professor preached a bit of contraryism. He'd pound it into us that "The masses are asses" and to follow the basics; Intrinsic value stock. He proved himself right. My index fund, managed by others - heck ALL my "managed" funds are down to 2004 levels or earlier. Personally researched, carefully chosen stocks? Some doing quite well, none down to the pits our precious IRA's are.
Warren Buffett has always been my personal hero but it's time to add that old phart who taught at SDSU.
As an addendum, that old phart (wish I could remember his name) alsod th preached that companies rarely fail due to the economy. Rather, they fail due to poor management. I've seen little reason to fault him there either. Toyota's CEO makes $1 million/year. Ford/GM/Chrysler CEO's make more than $1 million/MONTH. Which companies court failure and why? Pretty obvious I think....
Lets look at the positive side. In hopes of keeping their jobs, in the past two months I've seen floor personnel make a marked improvement in personal customer service at both Lowes and Home Depot. Anyone else seeing the same? Just stay away from giving gift cards this Christmas. They may end up as good as the plastic they're embossed on. (sigh)
Again, on a Futurist note, IMHO major retailers are on the threshold of a new era. Will traditional malls exist in 2-3 years? My personal prediction is yes, but filled with individualized "Internet cafe's" where a customer wanders in, selects from a broad local inventory, fills their "shopping cart" with mag stripe "tokens" and orders/pays at the checkout stand for delivery by UPS/FEDEX in the correct size/color selected. Botiques and restaurants will be there to cater to the shoppers and make the experience fun.
I certainly hope to live long enough to see this all come to fruition.
Don
Sneaks":27mtzyxc said:
It has been and still is a wild ride, with (IMHO) an end on the horizon but not necessarily in sight. Lots of hand wringing will go on between now and then. This morning's Morningstar article is pretty clear about the five reminders for market sanity. My economics professor preached a bit of contraryism. He'd pound it into us that "The masses are asses" and to follow the basics; Intrinsic value stock. He proved himself right. My index fund, managed by others - heck ALL my "managed" funds are down to 2004 levels or earlier. Personally researched, carefully chosen stocks? Some doing quite well, none down to the pits our precious IRA's are.
Warren Buffett has always been my personal hero but it's time to add that old phart who taught at SDSU.
As an addendum, that old phart (wish I could remember his name) alsod th preached that companies rarely fail due to the economy. Rather, they fail due to poor management. I've seen little reason to fault him there either. Toyota's CEO makes $1 million/year. Ford/GM/Chrysler CEO's make more than $1 million/MONTH. Which companies court failure and why? Pretty obvious I think....
Lets look at the positive side. In hopes of keeping their jobs, in the past two months I've seen floor personnel make a marked improvement in personal customer service at both Lowes and Home Depot. Anyone else seeing the same? Just stay away from giving gift cards this Christmas. They may end up as good as the plastic they're embossed on. (sigh)
Again, on a Futurist note, IMHO major retailers are on the threshold of a new era. Will traditional malls exist in 2-3 years? My personal prediction is yes, but filled with individualized "Internet cafe's" where a customer wanders in, selects from a broad local inventory, fills their "shopping cart" with mag stripe "tokens" and orders/pays at the checkout stand for delivery by UPS/FEDEX in the correct size/color selected. Botiques and restaurants will be there to cater to the shoppers and make the experience fun.
I certainly hope to live long enough to see this all come to fruition.
Don
Speaking of gift cards: Got this list and warning this morning.
FYI -
If you tend to give gift cards around the holidays, you need to be careful
that the cards will be honored after the holidays. Stores that are
planning to close after Christmas are still selling the cards through the holidays even though the cards will be worthless January 1. There is no law preventing them from doing this. On the contrary, it is referred to as
Bankruptcy Planning. Below is a partial list of stores that you need to be cautious about.
Circuit City (filed Chapter 11)
Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide closing
Lane Bryant , Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 stores nationwide
Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January
Cache will close all stores
Talbots closing down specialty stores
J. Jill closing all stores (owned by Talbots)
Pacific Sunwear (also owned by Talbots)
GAP closing 85 stores
Footlocker closing 140 stores more to close after January
Wickes Furniture closing down
Levitz closing down remaining stores
Bombay closing remaining stores
Zales closing down 82 stores and 105 after January
Whitehall closing all stores
Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January.
Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ ( New Brunswick )
Macys to close 9 stores after January
Linens and Things closing all stores
Movie Galley Closing all stores
Pep Boys Closing 33 stores
Sprint/Nextel closing 133 stores
JC Penney closing a number of stores after January
Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
Wilson Leather closing down all stores
Sharper Image closing down all stores
K B Toys closing 356 stores
Loews to close down some stores
Dillard's to close some stores
Mervyns closing all stores
FYI -
If you tend to give gift cards around the holidays, you need to be careful
that the cards will be honored after the holidays. Stores that are
planning to close after Christmas are still selling the cards through the holidays even though the cards will be worthless January 1. There is no law preventing them from doing this. On the contrary, it is referred to as
Bankruptcy Planning. Below is a partial list of stores that you need to be cautious about.
Circuit City (filed Chapter 11)
Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide closing
Lane Bryant , Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 stores nationwide
Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January
Cache will close all stores
Talbots closing down specialty stores
J. Jill closing all stores (owned by Talbots)
Pacific Sunwear (also owned by Talbots)
GAP closing 85 stores
Footlocker closing 140 stores more to close after January
Wickes Furniture closing down
Levitz closing down remaining stores
Bombay closing remaining stores
Zales closing down 82 stores and 105 after January
Whitehall closing all stores
Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January.
Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ ( New Brunswick )
Macys to close 9 stores after January
Linens and Things closing all stores
Movie Galley Closing all stores
Pep Boys Closing 33 stores
Sprint/Nextel closing 133 stores
JC Penney closing a number of stores after January
Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
Wilson Leather closing down all stores
Sharper Image closing down all stores
K B Toys closing 356 stores
Loews to close down some stores
Dillard's to close some stores
Mervyns closing all stores
Westfield 11, very good description of the deflationary spiral and follows close to what happened in the last Great Depression. However I'm having a hard time remembering the country that allowed itself to get into a hyperinflation scenario in the process of stimulating its economy to stop the deflationary spiral without an eventual collapse of it's government. Germany before Hitler on the other hand comes foremost to mind in those who's government did collapse in this process. There's a line that should not be crossed in either senorial, but hyperinflation with its total eventual ruination of a countries currency to me is the worst of the two. The USA has already or is presently in the process of priming the pump by about a trillion dollars and without some restraint in the future and I see no restraint on the horizon the likely hood of jumping from the deflationary spiral to hyperinflation in the not to distant future is to me quite possible.
The gale we're presently facing I'm well prepared for having frugally saved and stayed out of debt with all investments including IRA in FDIC accounts and they have been there for the last two years. Also have untill I retire about as stable a job as can be found, so am about as well prepared for the deflationary spiral as I could be. On the other hand if the perfect storm comes to pass and the air goes out of the USD by hyperinflation or other means there is no way I see to personally prepare for that and that is why it ranks so high on my list of future financial concerns.
Jay
The gale we're presently facing I'm well prepared for having frugally saved and stayed out of debt with all investments including IRA in FDIC accounts and they have been there for the last two years. Also have untill I retire about as stable a job as can be found, so am about as well prepared for the deflationary spiral as I could be. On the other hand if the perfect storm comes to pass and the air goes out of the USD by hyperinflation or other means there is no way I see to personally prepare for that and that is why it ranks so high on my list of future financial concerns.
Jay
Things are slow here in Reno as Bess-c mentioned.
The Grand Sierra Resort, formerly Hilton, was turned over to it's note holders, as opposed to being bankrupt. May be the same thing or not.
On the other hand the Peppermill is wrapping up a multi million dollar expansion. Worth checking out if you are in town. Indian gaming in California and other states has been bad for Nevada. Leading state for foreclosures - Nevada. Mainly in "Lost wages". It is all relative. I plan to work here and weather the financial storm as do many others. We have a new Baseball stadium and triple A team starting up in spring. Great deals on ski/Hotel packages! (If we get some good snow soon!)
Give me a shout if you need a guide or suggestions when in Reno!
Sunny, and 60 degrees.
JT :wink
F/V "Palomino"
The Grand Sierra Resort, formerly Hilton, was turned over to it's note holders, as opposed to being bankrupt. May be the same thing or not.
On the other hand the Peppermill is wrapping up a multi million dollar expansion. Worth checking out if you are in town. Indian gaming in California and other states has been bad for Nevada. Leading state for foreclosures - Nevada. Mainly in "Lost wages". It is all relative. I plan to work here and weather the financial storm as do many others. We have a new Baseball stadium and triple A team starting up in spring. Great deals on ski/Hotel packages! (If we get some good snow soon!)
Give me a shout if you need a guide or suggestions when in Reno!
Sunny, and 60 degrees.
JT :wink
F/V "Palomino"