October is traditionally a bad month in the markets, and this year was no exception. Back in October 1987, a year after we had left our jobs, sold our house, and 'hit the road' the S&P fell almost 22% in one day. That was a shocker. That drop was, fortunately, a short-term correction for most. This year, it took a month, but the S&P fell (to last Monday) 272 points for the worst month in 57 years and the second worst in history. What now?
Well, there are many articles about whether it is a half full or half empty glass, and, of course no one knows the future. Probably the most difficult aspect of the markets now is the extreme volatility. During the month, the Dow fell over 20%, and up to last Friday, never had two successive up days but also had two days where it roared upward over 10%.
Also, with many retirement 401K accounts, the finances of more folks are linked to the market than ever before so the effects of market movements are widely felt. In the past, most folks in retirement lived on their pension checks and social security. Now, there are increasing numbers of retirees who also draw from (or are dependent on) their 401K or IRA accounts. Consequently, movements in the stock markets are affecting many more retirees and also many of those who are thinking of retiring in the near future. It was formerly just the 'rich' who were shook-up by markets (of course, all were ultimately affected when companies cut jobs, banks foreclosed on houses, etc).
So, now with so many folks 'invested' in the market through their retirement plans, large movements change our view of our personal well-being. Over the past years, a generally up market in stocks and house values have given most a warm feeling of security - so we (collectively) did not save much, or easily went into debt. We could buy our boats, often using a loan, charge our fuel costs, pay high slip and storage fees, and enjoy life on the water, usually with little concern.
We have (at least temporarily, for sure) entered a different era. The wannabees will be more cautious since they will feel (and probably be) somewhat less affluent; those of us who have boats may plan our use of the boats somewhat differently. I know El and I have altered our boat use - we don't travel as far. We do not foresee any cut-back in our days on the boat, but long-distance trailer trips to new water, or long-distances on cruising routes, will probably be curtailed (fuel costs are back down, but still an important part of the long-distance cruising budget).
For some, thinking of buying a C-Dory, the smaller boat options will be more attractive - less initial cost, less per-foot expenses in owning, perhaps less fuel costs, etc. For others, unable to 'fit into' a smaller boat, it might mean waiting longer until savings are higher before purchase, rather than taking on more debt.
Perhaps we are in a major sea change in the economic world - the end of 'easy' credit and double digit annual rise in home values, perhaps a 'muddle' along time (after the volatility of the markets settle) in the stock market, an environment that requires more spending restraint and prioritizing of how we spend our money.
With unemployment and bankruptcies rising, and people generally reducing spending costs, we will probably see more used boats (at better prices) coming on the market. Folks who have a boat, and find they are seldom using it (for whatever reason) will feel more compulsion to sell the asset.
Since many boats traveling popular long-distance routes (the Great Loop, back east, or the Inside Passage, in the northwest) are big fuel-guzzlers there will be fewer boats doing long trips (we already have reports of that). This will make the cruise more enjoyable for those still on the water (fewer wakes from large boats, more solitude, etc.) but ... marina rates may go up as marina owners up rates to cover loss of business (this is being reported, also, at least in the east).
We all watch to see if there are signs of impending inflation or deflation, either of which will affect our financial lives. When there were indications of a slide into recession last January (the beginning of this thread), we shifted some investments into inflation-protection. We have since moved out of those since costs of energy have come down and we see few signs of inflation (stagflation) hitting us soon.
Fuel prices, for many reasons, discussed on another thread, have been on a roller coaster. They are now 'down' and not a major threat to our boating use.
The US dollar has gone up sharply (since the end of August (relative to most other currencies) and the Canadian dollar (relative to US) has dropped sharply since the end of September. This past week both those trends reversed. These fluctuations will affect all of us, since this affects import/export prices (and so much of our food, energy and 'consumer goods' are imported). Those boating near the Canada/US border will find all costs on the 'other side' changing and this will have an effect on longer trips (such as Washington to Alaska for US residents, or a summer in the San Juans, for Canadians).
Since we use our boat many days of the year (like many of you), these economic factors are important to us and in planning our boat use for the coming year. We have been interested in comments from others in the pub about these economic factors (and appreciate it when politics is left out).
We don't dwell on the risks of the future, but find some pondering to be of value for us. The sunrise over the lake out our window, or the smiles of kids at the door last night, absorbs more of our time and interest.