The tipping point

jkswor":1mz3vnsp said:
A person can have their own opinions or their beliefs, but a person cannot have their own facts.
So, the question was, if climate change or global warming is not the cause of these 10 things that are happening, what is the reason?
By the way, you left out one of the most important indicators of man's influence on the environment - ocean acidification. I don't think many realize how big an impact excess CO2 has had on the acidity of the ocean - see for example this link or do a google search on ocean acidification. The impact that ocean acidification can (and likely will) have on the shellfish industry and other animals in the ocean is large. The fact of the matter is that the ocean pH is decreasing at much faster rates than has happened at any time in the past many millions of years and the pH rise started when man started burning lots of fossil fuels. The rate of decrease is highly correlated with our rate of dumping CO2 into the air and the consensus scientific opinion is that man's fossil fuel use is responsible for this. Of course the internet makes it easy to find the occasional apparent "expert" who will claim otherwise, but make no mistake about it, if you talk to the vast majority of those with direct experience in the field, they will tell you there is little doubt that our own CO2 emissions are responsible for this rapid decrease in ocean pH.

The same is true when it comes to the average temperature on the earth. E.g. the RATE of change is much faster than what is estimated from various records of temperature (ice core data, data from living and fossilized trees etc). Again the vast majority of those will knowledge and experience in the field will tell you that there is little doubt that man made CO2 emissions are likely the cause of this temperature increase. What no one can predict with high accuracy is how much worse things will get, how fast that will happen, short term temperatures rises/decreases etc. Again it's easy to find apparent "experts" who will argue otherwise but the scientific consensus is that we can and are having an impact on climate with CO2 emissions. Both the left and the right wing have over sensationalized the potential impacts, the inevitable errors that occur in some models and the occasional short term decrease in temperature or decrease in rate.

But for now I'll tend to believe the overall scientific consensus that was developed by the best experts in the field (such as the reports and statements developed by the national academy of sciences) way more than I'd believe anything from the Heartland Institute (a clearly political organization), skeptical science.com (a web site by a bunch of people with limited experience in science - e.g. mostly bachelors degrees and very limited peer reviewed science), Forbes (a magazine that is beholden to large corporations and is owned by Republican Steve Forbes) or the AP Roundtable (another political organization). In fact if one looks at the AProundtable links with any real degree of inquiry, you'll find that their claim that "most scientists do not believe that human activities threaten to disrupt the Earth's climate" to be complete hogwash. They cite as evidence of this claim as petition signed by 17,000 "scientists". Go find that petition, look at the typical signatory and you'll find very few actual scientists with degrees relevant to climate science or with peer reviewed research in climate science. What you will find are M.D.'s, chemical engineers etc.

As I stated on another recent thread, if I want good advice on my Honda Boat engines, I go to a marine mechanic with direct experience on Honda. I don't go to a Honda car mechanic (although he may have some relevant knowledge), I don't go to a climate scientists and I don't go to a carpenter. I go to people who REALLY know about Honda marine engines. When I want a good understanding of climate science I go to sources put together by the best climate scientists in the world - such as those at the National Academy of Science. I can also independently judge the quality of a climate scientist by a number of factors including: how much experience he or she has in the field, how many peer review publications they have, where they obtained their degree, how often others site their research etc. When I talk to people who REALLY understand the entire collection of relevant data and models, I get a consensus opinion that is fairly well represented by the NAS reports.
 
I think climate change and whether or not man has a significant impact on it is the least of our country's worries. Here's to good leadership and everyone working together in 2014. :beer
 
Rogerbum's carefully reasoned treatise is a powerful nudge many ignore.

In concrete economic terms, the oyster spat hatchery in Netarts Bay on the Oregon coast lost most of a season's spat output, an economic calamity for them, owing to a sharp increase in acidity of the bay, as have a couple other oyster growers on the Willapa Bay in SW Washington. Ocean acidification is translating into significant dollars and cents losses for businesses dependent on ocean waters for such nuturing operations. FORBES ought to go out and get their stories and report the effects of ocean acidification up front and dump the political perspective.

If we lose the bulk of oyster spat production in high volume areas such as those described above, expect mature oysters in the marketplace to cost more than prime rib ... or to be scarce to the point restaurants will not be able to menu them. These effects are real, and have economic consequences, today, likely to increase in years to come.
 
The science cannot be argued with any longer. Don't waste time on the deniers. They contribute nothing meaningful so should be ignored. They simply are ignorant of the facts and are entirely ineffectual.
 
I dismiss the entire premise upon which the global warming alarmists have built their argument. Anybody that thinks that a couple hundred years of humanity's industrialization of the planet matters AT ALL to the planet's 'health', has no idea how insignificant that humanity really is, and has way too big of an ego to have an honest conversation about it. In the big picture, nothing that humanity could possibly do to this planet matters one whit. At some point, the earth will be swallowed by the sun, and this argument will finally be silenced. And, as obnoxious as many of these alarmists are, I can only pray that that day comes soon...

Until then, can we get back to talking about boats?
 
jkswor":1c0hqy1x said:
How can you spin a fact? A fact is a fact. It is what it is. If you dont believe these are facts, then tell me how they are not! with facts!

Um.., I put QUOTES around the word facts. Yes, you are right - they are certainly SOMEBODY's facts.

Have you seen these facts in print?
Have you read through each of the reports and rebuttals associated with each of them to verify that you agree with said "facts"?
Have you verified that these facts are specifically due to things man is doing and not one of nature's cycles?

Just sayin'.......

I did not post my comment to start an argument, I would like everyone to get educated and think for themselves (not saying that you are not).

Sorry - I think AK Angler has it right - ".....can we get back to talking about boats?"
 
Although I think there are certain threads/subjects that tend to "devolve," and in which (despite some well-spoken/reasoned posts) many people just seem to be quipping at each other -- I do like the fact that we don't only talk about boats here. I enjoy reading about other hobbies, work, weather, health, music, land travels, and/or any of a number of other things. Plus, of course, bring on the boating and boat mod threads :thup

For me, forums that only talk about their one subject are never as dynamic, and I don't feel I get to know the members as well. I belong to a few, but they are more like a reference resource to me, and not like a community of friends (which is how I think of C-Brats).
 
FACT:

today is 25 seconds longer than yesterday.


FACT:

I will be on a beach with my bikini clad wife in less than a month.

FACT:

I visited my C-Dory yesterday (still tucked away safely in mom and dad's barn) and thought how glad I am I made that purchase.

FACT:

2014 should be a fantastic year for boating :mrgreen:

and internet arguments. :beer
 
Sunbeam":joitj8ja said:
Although I think there are certain threads/subjects that tend to "devolve," and in which (despite some well-spoken/reasoned posts) many people just seem to be quipping at each other -- I do like the fact that we don't only talk about boats here. I enjoy reading about other hobbies, work, weather, health, music, land travels, and/or any of a number of other things. Plus, of course, bring on the boating and boat mod threads :thup

For me, forums that only talk about their one subject are never as dynamic, and I don't feel I get to know the members as well. I belong to a few, but they are more like a reference resource to me, and not like a community of friends (which is how I think of C-Brats).

Sunbeam-

I'm 100% in agreement with you as stated above, but would add the following.

Members should either refrain from discussing matters of politics, religion, or other controversial subjects such as global warming/climate change, or do so only with due respect to others without emotionally charged arguments or personal references, and all keeping within the "just be nice" guidelines in effect on this forum.

TyBoo was right: "It's going to be a long winter." :lol:

Joe. :teeth :thup
 
I agree, Sea Wolf. Your saying "emotionally charged arguments" was a better description than my "quipping." I think in both cases it comes through as more "making a point, perhaps with a 'zing'" than it does as explaining one's position. In any case, I agree with you. No desire for acrimonious threads here - but I would like to talk about more than boats (as long as we don't neglect to talk about boats!). So I think we're basically in agreement, but I liked your addendum.
 
Your right, I should not have responded to the posters who were pretending to run their cars or lawn equipment in order to hurry along the so called climate change. So, my apologies.
And I agree that folks should refrain from bringing up politics and religion and global warming and such, which usually cause some sort of response from folks who disagree with them. These are arguments which cannot be won due to the beliefs of those involved. Things can be said which can be very disrespectful towards others.
So, My wish is that all of us keep our opinions to ourselves, if that is possible.
 
AK Angler":27z0ptwn said:
I dismiss the entire premise upon which the global warming alarmists have built their argument. Anybody that thinks that a couple hundred years of humanity's industrialization of the planet matters AT ALL to the planet's 'health', has no idea how insignificant that humanity really is, and has way too big of an ego to have an honest conversation about it. In the big picture, nothing that humanity could possibly do to this planet matters one whit. At some point, the earth will be swallowed by the sun, and this argument will finally be silenced. And, as obnoxious as many of these alarmists are, I can only pray that that day comes soon...

Until then, can we get back to talking about boats?
Your premise seems to be that we are so insignificant, we can't change the health of the earth. But somehow (even a couple hundred years ago) we managed to nearly completely wipe out a population of 60,000,000 bison in North America. We've also managed to nearly wipe out cod in many parts of the Atlantic ocean and salmon in many, many streams and rivers (due to both overfishing and dams). Without artificial production, there wouldn't be many salmon to catch in the U.S. With DDT we did severe damage to many species (especially eagles in the lower 48). Of course, I could go on an on with other example of over hunting, over fishing and pollution. I'd say the evidence is overwhelming that we can and have changed the health of the earth in many ways. One thing that is the case about the tragedies that I mention above, eventually we recognized the problem and changed some of our ways. Maybe the same will happen with CO2. But I'm willing to bet that there were some bison hunters who held onto the belief that human activity couldn't possibly affect bison levels for a very, very long time.
 
It funny that you mention bison because the huge herds that the evil white man killed off where most likely... artificial. There was a great article a few years ago about it. long story short there is no evidence of super herds on the plains prior to Europeans coming to america. Now Stop and think about when Euro trash first showed up (1492) and when we first started reaching the great plains. ( late 1600's). That left almost 2oo years for a) the vast majority of Indians to die of introduced disease and b) the herd that were now not hunted by 90% of the population that is now dead to explode and c) ( sorry that's three things) for a new and completely different society to develop from the survivors of the plagues. A mobile horse mounted hand to mouth hunter and gather small family group structure. We discovered a plains society that we may very well have caused and never got to see the true american Indian as he was in the great plains. There are one or two accounts by the Spanish of large wide spread cites and vast areas of farmed land in the Mississippi delta. Euro's never got back to that area for almost 200 years and by the time we did it was all gone. Same thing in the Amazon. The world is still a mystery in a lot of ways.

Oh and man made global warming is a lot of rubbish. They go the cause wrong. C02 is the after effect of warming not the cause. Sun heats the planet, oceans release the CO2 and the planet cools. That's why NONE of the computer models have been right. If they were we would be several degrees hotter then we are right now. We have had NO warming for 17 years now. Oceans are LOWER then they were in the early medieval by almost 30 ft. ( some thing I just learned). South pole has record snow cover and ice. etc etc etc. No I will not be checking back here for responses by PHD's and other's so don't bother. Man has not cause the earth to warm and has not caused it to cool. There is not a energy shortage just a storage of will to develop it. And just for the record I would be very willing to change to a majority clean electrical grid and away from coal and dams. Its called nukes and they are safe if you build new ones. Dont tell me about japan. That thing was designed in the 50's for christ sake.

Well off to go fishing with the family.
 
Kushtaka":23o87fzf said:
DuckDogTitus":23o87fzf said:
We've made it! Tomorrow is officially 3 seconds longer than today :)

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/a ... html?n=234

We get about 3 more MINUTES!!! Oh man, and after about a month we'll be gaining about 6 minutes a day! That really adds up!!!

considering our 8 and half hour days feel short, I am not going to gripe about you getting more minutes per day right now... looks like you guys are sitting closer to 5 1/2hrs. ouch!

I LOVE long summer days though. I think I'd be fine living with 24hrs of sunlight.
 
starcrafttom":2v33yykp said:
It funny that you mention bison because the huge herds that the evil white man killed off where most likely... artificial. There was a great article a few years ago about it. long story short there is no evidence of super herds on the plains prior to Europeans coming to america. Now Stop and think about when Euro trash first showed up (1492) and when we first started reaching the great plains. ( late 1600's). That left almost 2oo years for a) the vast majority of Indians to die of introduced disease and b) the herd that were now not hunted by 90% of the population that is now dead to explode and c) ( sorry that's three things) for a new and completely different society to develop from the survivors of the plagues. A mobile horse mounted hand to mouth hunter and gather small family group structure. We discovered a plains society that we may very well have caused and never got to see the true american Indian as he was in the great plains. There are one or two accounts by the Spanish of large wide spread cites and vast areas of farmed land in the Mississippi delta. Euro's never got back to that area for almost 200 years and by the time we did it was all gone. Same thing in the Amazon. The world is still a mystery in a lot of ways.

Tom, I'd love to see the references and research that show that the huge herds of bison were most likely "artificial" and the references that show that there "is no evidence of super herds on the plains prior to Europeans coming to America". I'm always interested in getting an education. I do realize that there is research to suggest that as native Americans succumbed to a combination of extermination and diseases from the europeans, there is evidence that the herds increased in size and there is a theory that perhaps the native americans were regulating the size of the population. But even that argument supports my overall premise that man (white or non-white) can and does have a significant influence over the environment. Also, the references I can find estimate that the pre-european size of bison herd was about 30,000,000 animals (see - Methane emissions from bison—An historic herd estimate for the North American Great Plains. Kelliher, Francis M. Agricultural and forest meteorology. ,2010,Vol.150(3),p.473 and references therein).
 
First I agree that subjects of great controversy--maybe even including twins vs singles with kickers :-)--are better left for other arenas of discussion. A post here is very unlikely to change anyone's opinions. In our local social group we informally ban certain subject discussions. Most of us know where the others stand on controversial issues. But we want social harmony, and by gentleman's agreement avoid any area which would alienate one of the individuals. This does not mean that one on one discussions do not occur.

However, I do have to make one point--and it is not just global warming or energy source, maybe even politics….that one action may have a number of unintended consequences which are either neglected or not foreseen. We all know this, but rarely think about it.

Presented as an example only--not for argument or if right or wrong: Ethanol from corn (or other food crop)--may or may not have helped the immediate environment. It has had a "Cost" in many ways. Subsidy, taking land for other food crops, using land which might have better use, water use, etc. But it did raise the price of corn significantly. As a result many millions of acres of forrest were removed world wide (often burned producing more CO2) to provide food stuffs for subsistence. In the CO2 Cycle, there are now less trees to absorb the CO2 and produce oxygen.

There is no real co-ordinated effective world wide regulation of carbon emissions, fisheries control, etc--the list can go on to include almost all of man's interface with the environment and various ecosystems.

I do believe that each of us needs to search for the truth. There are many vested interest groups who will try and sway your opinion. Hopefully we all can reach valid conclusions by reading and sorting thru the various studies--or relying on trusted scientific sources. (But remember that science does change--and sometimes very rapidly)

Don't forget the Fermi paradox. Those who do not know what this is and the arguments, should take the time to look it up.
 
thataway":kewmj3xp said:
Don't forget the Fermi paradox. Those who do not know what this is and the arguments, should take the time to look it up.

This discussion of daylight and winter time is quickly reminding me of Godwins's Law as well, haha. :beer
 
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