Lake Powell Drying Up?

Interesting editorial--and something that all of us who boat there should read. It is also important to read the comments--which may give a different prospective. I had looked up the various stastics about silting up and the canyous a few years ago--and there is a very significant threat--the question is when?

Here are current stats on Lake Powell:
Lake Powell is 80.87 feet below Full Pool (Elevation 3,700)

By content, Lake Powell is 56.21% of Full Pool (24,322,000 af)
Total inflows for water year 2010: 3,116,378 acre feet

This is 77.78% of the April 21st average of 4,006,443 acre feet Total releases for water year 2010: 4,768,100 acre feet

This is 57.94% of the minimum required of 8,230,000 acre feet
During WY 2010, water storage has fallen by 1,783,631 AF and total outflows have exceeded total inflows by 1,651,722 AF
Reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 78.18% of capacity. Click for Details
Inflows for WY 2010 are 107.13% of WY 2009 Rivers feeding Lake Powell are running at 59.63% of the May 20th avg.
Click to expand...

Castle Rock Cut is still open with over 11 feet. Last summer we had about 5 feet going thru it in late July. But, it had been dredged 8 more feet.

The water wars go way back. My great grandfater was the first Federal Land Grants attorney in S. Calif. and we have his diaries. He commented in the late 1860's that water was a problem in the barren land. At that time the total population of S. Calif was less than 6,000 people. (Not sure that counted the indians). Currently the population of this same area is in excess of 16 million people! They all require water. This does not include the NV, Utah, AZ needs--or even touch Mexico, and the agricultural areas of the Colorado River Basin in Calif.

I understand that the city of Phnoex was thwarted in attempting to buy land in the valley where Salome AZ is located, just to take the underground water.

When will the lake silt up? It has been going faster than first thought--and the effects will be devistating. Will the dams be taken down? Can there be restitution of the habitat? When will S. Calif and Phoenix, Las Vegas etc, find other sources of water--or even stop the building? Lots to think about there!

Thanks Bill.
 
I am sure everyone has heard this, but I can never resist a good Mark Twain quote: "Whisky is for drink'n and water is for fight'n over.".

Seriously, this is THE big issue out here, but it's also the one no one wants to bring up. The SW will run out of water long before it runs out of oil, we have been drinking our reserves of underground water dry and making up the shortfall with Colorado River water, a situation that is not sustainable for more than the near short term. In the past few years we have done all our boating on the Colorado and we have grown to love it. There is everything from aquatic "cruising the drive-in" places for hot rodders and partiers to the incredible solitude of the remote coves and the wonderland of Lake Powell. It would be a huge loss to many many people if the water levels drop too far making the lakes unnavigable. Lake Havasu is already having issues upriver with sandbars and shallow water in the channel. Building the great dams was probably an ecological disaster, but at this point the whole river is an irrigation ditch "managed" from one end to the other. The cities need the water too badly to ever remove the dams as they have done in other states and there are no issues about spawning salmon as in the NW.

Still, with the return to traditional rainfall patterns (otherwise known as the current drought) the amount of water flowing into the system is going to be less than the total amount currently allotted to all the users so something has to change.
 
The Salt Lake paper regularly runs these commentaries by environmentalists opposed to Lake Powell. There is little counter commentary.

Environmentalists want Glen Canyon Dam torn down, nothing less will satisfy them. The commentary states that Lake Powell may dry up by 2021. These are radical people with a radical agenda and they make radical statements.

The management of the Colorado River has been heavily impacted by these radicals. There are regular large releases from Powell to "flush" the Colorado. These are of questionable environmental value, and they have the effect of reducing the value of Powell. This is one of the primary reasons Powell has less water. It still has more water than a few years ago.

At the present time the engineers are saying that Powell may be clogged with sediment in about 750 years. Most of the storage, something like 50% of the capacity is in the top 50 feet, it will be a long long time before sediment has an effect on storage.

The attacks on Lake Powell are pretty constant. The facts are that the Lake works, it provides energy, water and recreation to many people in this country.
 
I believe the expression, "Plan Ahead" has many and varied applications.

Paul Priest
Sequim
 
According to the US Bureau of Reclamation, the primary problem for maintaining water level in Lake Powell has been an extended drought, which began in 1999. ( http://www.usbr.gov/uc/feature/drought.html )

Inflow to Lake Powell provides a useful barometer of drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin. In the late 1990’s, inflow to Lake Powell was above average (based on the 30 year average for the period from 1971 through 2000) and the lake stayed full from 1995 through 1999.

As late as September 1999, Lake Powell was still 95 percent full. Inflow into Lake Powell from water years 2000 through 2004 was just above half of what is considered average. The 2002 inflow was the lowest ever recorded since Lake Powell began filling in 1963.

Unregulated Inflow to Lake Powell:
2000 - 62% 2001 - 59% 2002 - 25% 2003 - 51% 2004 - 49% 2005 - 105% 2006 - 73% 2007 - 68% 2008 - 102% 2009 - 88% 2010 thru Mar - 70%
Forecast, 2010 April to July - 63%

As of April 8, 2010 the storage in Lake Powell was 13.65 million acre-feet (56.1 percent of capacity)

Diversions of Colorado River water for use by the lower basin states (NV, AZ, and CA) are guaranteed by law, and water must be drained from Lake Powell to satisfy the regulations.

Researchers at Scripps (UCSD) completed a study of the hydrology of the Colorado River (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2 ... 6704.shtml), published in the journal, Water Resources Research, titled "When Will Lake Mead Go Dry?" and predicted a 50% chance that "minimum power pools will be reached under current conditions by 2017 and live storage will be gone by 2021 if no changes in water allocation from the Colorado River system are made".

This is the result "of climate change associated with global warming, the effects of natural climate variability, and the current operating status of the reservoir system".

"Make no mistake, this water problem is not a scientific abstraction, but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest.

It's likely to mean real changes to how we live and do business in this region," Pierce (one of the authors) states.

Of course, predictions are always uncertain. But, as a hydrogeologist, one of my research studies was to define the groundwater resource capacity in all the basins of central Nevada. It is to those basins that Las Vegas is now turning for their future water supply rather than the Colorado River.

As Paul says in his post, "Plan Ahead".
 
Bill,
Are not the basins also subject to the varities of natures cycles? What happens when these are tapped out? I assume that some of the basin water is currently being used.

In the SE we had some what of the same problem with Atlanta--Lake Lanier (never designed as a water supply, it was designed as hydropower and flood control)--became the primary water supply of Atlanta, and a prolonged drought had dire consiquences for both Atlanta,and down stream uses--such as the oysters in Apalachicola Bay.

My impression is that Powell is silting up faster than originally projected? Is this correct. What is your impression of "Restoring the Colorado River Ecosystem" by Adler?
 
We have been gaining about 10 feet a year for the last few years. This year doesn't look like it will be as good. Hopefully it's not a new cycle. They say a water year is about 20 feet off the top. It would be easy to test if the dam wasn't there, just turn off the switch for a week and see if anyone notices. California and Las Vegas would probably complain.
 
Regarding the comment about a water year being about 20 feet off the top of the lake - consider this:

If the lake had vertical sides, each foot of rise would mean the same amount of water added. Since the shoreline is largely (or mostly?) quite flat, each foot of rise takes a LOT more water than the previous foot.

My point is that if the lake has been going up about the same number of feet each year for a few years, then actually the amount of water being stored has been accelerating each year. Conversely, when it starts being drained, the elevation will drop slowly at first and then faster each year, assuming constant volume draining.

A better way to look at the lake capacity is to watch the total storage number in gallons or acre-feet or whatever units you like.

Of course our interest is often in knowing about the boat ramps or the Castle Rock Cut, so the elevation is of interest, too. It's just not a good way to monitor the capacity changes.

-Jeff
 
I have a solution but a huge political problem. Just pipe water from the Coluimbia River to California, New Mexico, and Arizona. It won't happen in my life time, but I predict it will happen some day. John
 
Yellowstone":3mpt3tjs said:
I have a solution but a huge political problem. Just pipe water from the Coluimbia River to California, New Mexico, and Arizona. It won't happen in my life time, but I predict it will happen some day. John
Click to expand...

John- I've suggested that myself here earlier, but did so in jest, so the PNW Gang wouldn't hang me at my next Seattle Boat Show/ C-Brat Get Together, but it's a definite possibility, makes a lot of sense, and would perhaps only take a slightly smaller parallel pipeline running the opposite way with $$$ in it to make it happen, sadly.

Joe. :teeth :thup
 
Hi Joe - Here in Montana we have our own water wars. Montana has more water rights than water. I live outside of town with my own well which has a recorded water right going back to 1898. My water does not need treatment at all. But neigboring ranchers have law suits going on right now over the stuff. Interesting subject.
John
 
Many years back a serious proposal was made to 'export' water from the Pac NW to the SW. Hydrologists and engineers studied the proposal, but needless to say the NW screamed "halt" and it halted. Then, water managers checked out the Canadian side of the border and there was more serious talk about international export. That also, needless to say, was halted (but the discussion went on for a long time).

A hydrogeologist friend made a lengthy study of modern America's water needs - he 'discovered' that at that time (1970's) no modern US city ever had restricted 'growth' due to lack of water. When the water demand exceeded supply, the city was invariably large enough to have the $ and political muscle to get the water.

Vegas today is an example - started with artesian wells, then when the wellhead pressure dropped, the city was big enough to drill wells (causing parts of the city to sink as much as three feet, with resulting problems), then rich enough to run a pipe to the Colorado River and pump all they legally could (even enlarged the pipe when the city continued to grow), now considering piping many miles from central Nevada groundwater basins. No end.

When we first moved to Vegas household water wasn't gauged and we had a set monthly fee - use all you want (in the middle of a desert) for same low price (less than we paid in Wisconsin). Another hydro friend's study suggested the only way to control growth of a city via water was to charge the 'future' price of water to present users - thus restricting water use and encouraging conservation - but the lawyers for the Water District said, "No way - the public utility could not charge more than present cost."

Ah, water - we all boat on it (salt or fresh) - and in the SW particularly it is a major problem, and, as John says, virtually everywhere.

Thataway Bob - yes - variations in climate are very important for the groundwater basins in Nevada - but the effect is generally long-term. Most water in those basins is "fossil" water - left over from the wetter Ice Ages. The basins can be managed with present-day climate in mind - like developing ground-water recharge basins and restricting outflow to inflow (a nasty legal and political problem).
 
It is raining, and raining in Northern California....I just don't understand where all that water goes during the summer....seems like some of our flood water could be sent to Southern California...and turn off the imported water during the rainy season ...that would allow Powell some respite during the winter..

Also Southern California needs to have more winter storage for their water...

Santa Barbara has a fresh water desalinizing plant that has never been used....

Joel
SEA3PO
 
Although at a different end of the specturm, Catalina Island has had a water problem most of its modern populated existance. There is a "lake" with some pipelines, and a few springs. Avalon has long had a dual water system--salt for toilet and fire fighting and fresh for drinking etc. There have been desalanation plants there for many years--the first using waste heat from the power generating system (S. Calif. Edison Co).

This is an example of conservation of resources. There are also many communities, using waste water from sewage reclaimation for irrigation and even recycled into the domestic water supply. It is too bad that more cities don't use their resources more inteligently. Consider Phoenix--we have friends there who live on the last of the artificial lakes. Lakes in the desert, with large area for evaporation in a low humidity envoironment?

In the past there was talk of towing iceburgs down to S. Calif for fresh water--of course that never materialized.
 
Here in rainy Snoqualmie, WA, 100% of the sewage is treated to Class A standards in the low flow months and pumped to a a man-made lake to irrigate city parks, medians and a private golf course, saving immense amounts of potable water. The sludge is treated to Class A standards and distributed for, well, I probably still will not put it on my vegetable garden, but it WILL grow anything!

thataway":3ig4vuu0 said:
There are also many communities, using waste water from sewage reclaimation for irrigation and even recycled into the domestic water supply.
Click to expand...
 
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