Keep your heads down southwest Florida folks...

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JamesTXSD

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2007
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Mike, Judy, Jim, and others,

We see Tropical Storm Fay (likely to become a hurricane) is heading your way. While the national news guys are saying "just" a category one, we sure know what that can turn into. (Got the last of the house exterior stuff done today.) Hope all goes easy for you. We're thinking about you.

Best wishes,
Jim B.
 
Jim , the coverage is turning into a joke , I spoke with a dealer friend less than 100 Mi. and there was nothing . They are milking this .I fear we will start to ignore them when we shouldn't be soon. Just so weather channel can sell ads to Home Depot and Lowes and Jim Cantore and Stephanie whatshername will stay storm celebs . . ..
Marc
 
Thank you Jimbo for your concerns. But as Marc has pointed out the hipe is out of sight. I understand the need to error on the side of safety but between the Weather Channel folks and the bureaucrats you would think we were in for a cat 4 event.

I pulled Papillon yesterday and picked up around the house (it needed it anyway). Jim (Duck) pulled his boat today while I put the sailboat in the center of the canal tied off to the mangroves and the dock, hoping to avoid any dock rash should be have a strong surge and high winds. I took the main sail off and all the canvas from the boats.

We are expecting Faye to arrive in a few hours at the present rate and are as prepared as we can be based on our own Cat-1 prediction. I am somewhat surprised that it has not intensified in strength but I am not upset that it didn't.

Thank you for your thoughts and we will try to get you some pictures of anything that goes horizonal.
 
We can never loose site of hurricanes changing both direction and intensity rapidly. Sure there is a lot of hype. I like to look at Weather Underground, and the US Navy predictions about every 4 hours.

We have seen storms go from Cat 1 or less to Cat 3 overnight. We have seen the storms change directions 90 degrees overnight. Currently 2 Fay models show some skirting of the Gulf Coast--and if that happens, the storm could intensify rapidly. (The models have been changing dramatically during this afternoon--out about 48 hours prediction). There are lots of factors driving the course of this perticular storm (some are calling it "the Joker").

I would rather over prepare than assume that there will not be a serious problem. Probably our experience with Ivan and Dennis and tempored our views--but we have been very lucky--and some of our neighbors didn't take either of these seriously--and it cost them dearly. (And none of these were anywhere near the destruction of Katrina or even Rita).

We don't have the storm shutters up, but we do have fuel in the vehicles, and the boats ready to secure if the un-expected happens...All supplies are in order and hard drives are backed up and ready to be taken with us in the remote case we have to evacuate. (very unlikely--but our home is in a manditory evacuation area if there is a storm headed our way)
 
Thataway, Was raised where you live and went thru several hurricanes as a kid. Loved them because school closed and both of our parents were home all day.
Exciting to a kid. Also, the beaches were loaded with abandoned small boats and other stuff because of the very high tides. Source of my first small boat. Not every thing was bad. The first Pensacola was on Pensacola beach island but was swept away and then Saint Augustine was settled (so I was told).
Zelpha
 
Well guys, Fay has come and gone and all is well in doryland. Fay made landfall 15 miles down the beach from us at Cape Romano. We lucked out being on the left side of the storm. It produced lots of rain, but more on it's right side toward Miami.

We had extensive flooding around us and 38,000 lost power (Us Included) at 5:30 am and didn't get power back until 3:30 pm today. I am happy to report that the generator performed well and we were able to tough it out. It is around 7:00 pm now and we are still getting a nice breeze and a few gust out of Fay even now.

I do agree, Dr. Bob, with being prepared and ready to move out when one of these storms does what they do best...Change their minds.
 
Mike,

Glad to hear that you all made out alright down there.

Hopefully, this will be a quiet year with no big storms.
 
Glad to hear you came through unscathed, Mike. From the looks of it, Fay is now running NE and may go back out over water, then come back in around Jacksonville. Some of the computer models are showing her then running west... whoda thunk she could be a problem in the Panhandle from the shore side???

Weather Underground is one of my bookmarked sites that sees a lot of use this time of year.

I thought we might get the drywall work done today (from Dolly)... I am WAY too optimistic. :roll: On the bright side, we had a heavy rain today and that ceiling stayed dry! Maybe another few days of hearing: "We will be there at 2:00... it might be earlier than that or it might be later than that, but we will be there at 2:00." :amgry

BTW, Dolly was hyped... then she picked up steam right before landfall and sat over the top of our place for about 26 hours. She kicked a lot of butt around here. :cry:
 
Just a little Pensacola History: Penascola was settled by Spanish Colonists in August, 1559. Although the exact spot of the first settlement is not known for certain, it is well documented that it was on high ground--either Fort Barrancus or the Bluff near Bayou Texar, not Pensacola Beach. A hurricane swept into Pensacola Bay (then called "Bahia Filipina del Puerto de Santa Maria") on August 19th, 5 days after making the first landing of this trip. Ten of the 13 ships in the fleet were lost in the storm. Only a Caravelle and two Barks survived. Many supplies had been lost in previous storms in the Gulf during the 65 days at sea from Vera Cruz (Normally a 14 day sail). The colony had about 1500 colonists, and one ship was sent back to New Spain asking for food and help. By the end on one year the colony was abandoned, with only a few hundred souls surviving. Causes of the failure included disease, lack of food, and hostile Indians. The next new World Settlement did not occur until 1565 at St. Augustine. The flagship of this fleet has been found and the sight well explored--this wreck was near the bluff off Bayou Texar--most likely the settlement site.

Hurricanes have played a large role in the history of Pensacola--and many have been very severe--probably as severe as Katrina or Andrew and certainly more serverthan Ivan--the most damaging in recent history.-

There is little risk to the Gulf Coast from Fay, if the storm tracks inland--but at one point some of the models had the storm coming back over the gulf waters--and the storm is not finished yet.

Hopefully none of our members will be adversely affected by this storm.
 
About 4 days ago I wrote:
"We can never loose site of hurricanes changing both direction and intensity rapidly. Sure there is a lot of hype. I like to look at Weather Underground, and the US Navy predictions about every 4 hours.

We have seen storms go from Cat 1 or less to Cat 3 overnight. We have seen the storms change directions 90 degrees overnight. Currently 2 Fay models show some skirting of the Gulf Coast--and if that happens, the storm could intensify rapidly. (The models have been changing dramatically during this afternoon--out about 48 hours prediction). There are lots of factors driving the course of this perticular storm (some are calling it "the Joker").

Then it looked as if the storm would bo across Florida and up into the SE. Now the models are back showing Fay skirting the coast an Gulf coast--so far Fay has made 3 landfalls in Florida. If she made a 4th landfall, that would be a new record. So...Marc--hang on--probably not much wind, but still possiable lots of rain in the Apalachicola area. As for us--vehicles fueled up and boats secured.--a beautiful day--often the way it is before hurrricanes appear.
 
Powers is on , not too much wind or rain . Not what we thought . We are in the middle now . Counting our blessings . Still watching though .
Marc
 
No doubt about course deviations when it comes to hurricanes Thataway. I was on the Yankee Clipper for 10 days, 3 weeks prior to hurricane Mitch. Onasis Reyes was our First Mate that trip. Two weeks later, Onasis was assigned second mate and about 12 other crew members from the Yankee Clipper were assigned crew to the Fantome. The crew tried everything to dodge Mitch - disembarking voyagers in Honduras, then setting out for the western edge of Roatan to dodge Mitch. Not to be - in less than 12 hrs Mitch turned 180 degrees south & took the lives of 31 crew members and a $22 million vessel to the bottom.
 
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