After the quake, another consideration...

J

JamesTXSD

Active member
Our neighbor is a boat builder/dealer, and also does service work, including repowering. He writes a weekly article for one of our papers and this is taken (with permission) from his next to-be-published article...

Unfortunately, if you are in the market for a new motor or thinking about re-powering in the near future, you might want to push those plans ahead, because in the aftermath of the earth quake and tsunami in Japan last week, there’s bound to be a worldwide shortage of motors, including Tohatsu, Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha and Mercury. Once the supply of motors that are currently in-stock here in the US, or already in transit, are gone, it may be quite awhile before things get back to normal. Also, as supplies dwindle, you might not be able to strike quite as good of a deal on a new motor. It’s that “supply and demand” thing.
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The gist of his article was about getting better mileage with your outboard, and one of his recommendations was purchasing a new, more efficient motor.

So, with the horrific damage from the quake, this is but one of the situations on how it will affect boaters around the world.
 
The same might be applied to cars. several of the photos I saw were of large parking lots of identical new cars being swept away. I could not tell which brand. Add to that the lost of power in wide spread areas and some plants may not even be running right now. it pales in comparison to the lose of life.
 
Absolutely, Tom, I agree with you 100%. Interesting perspective amongst all the death and destruction. I've even read recent articles that say oil prices will go down based on reduced need from Japan. I ran businesses all my adult life, but I think I would find it hard to be analytical at this time about business. Perhaps because I no longer run a business? Tragic situation, tough times.
 
I suspect that industry will be back up and running shortly. The entire economy of Japan depends on production of goods. Electricity will be in short supply for some time--but it will come back--even if diesel driven.

I don't know how many of outboards are made in Japan--and probably many, but some are made in China, Mexico, Belgium etc. But this is a very good point. There will certainly be a period of some turmoil.
 
Charles Smith Hughes, a blogger I usually enjoy, has some interesting observations and opinions on the Japanese quake situation and its aftermath:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

At this moment no one knows what the outcome will be for Japan in the near term, let alone the longer term. Financially, Japan has managed to remain afloat after about twenty years of stunning debt. The Japanese attitudes of sacrifice, work ethic, and nationalistic spirit seem to prevail, and given the current natural disasters, may serve as a uniting force. We'll see.

Given the nature of the disaster The World will likely be receptive to lending assistance in various ways; and the Japanese will prevail, but it will take a while. Meanwhile we'll watch the US and various european countries try to manage their self-induced financial woes - but trying to do it without the inherent characteristics and Spirit of the Japanese.

My money's on the Japanese.

Best,
Casey
 
Interesting link. Yes, I think that Japan will recover--there is a relitatively small part of the country which is devistated--and TV always makes things seem somewhat worse...However the economics are troubling. Japan has had 2 decades of economic stagnation, hyper governmental spending, and deflation. It is a precautionary tale for the United States...

On the other hand, I am hearing that much of the loss in Japan may not be as well insured as in other countries. Thus one wonders were the money for rebuildng will come from--especially infra structure. As Japanese retire and come into the world cycle of economics, they will realize that the extremely low interest rates at home will not be conducive for their personal economic survival. Outside investers are less likely to loan money to Japan for rebuilding because of extremely low interest rates and deflation which had occured. (Paradoxically it ws predicted that Japan might break out of this cycle in the next couple of years. This natural diseaster may prevent that.

The other question we had, was what the effect would have been if this had occured during WW II--I believe it would have brought the end of the war much sooner, the Atomic Bomb might not have been dropped, and the world might have taken a different course....but that is only speculation.

I wish all of those affected well. It will be interesting to see my grandchildren's reaction to this. They are both imersed in a Japanese Language program (all teaching in the class room for all subjects is in Japanese)--thus they are also immersed in the Japanese culture--with all Japanese teachers....
 
This is the perfect time for the USA to declare an emergency and martial law...
1. Stop all importation of oil... Limit use of all vehicles on the roads to every other day, even and odd numbered days, based on the license plate (forcing pooling of rides to work, etc.) Multiple-car families will be forced to surrender extra plates to avoid gaming the system...
2. Pass mirror rules on imported goods - meaning, our importation rules will mirror those of each the exporting nations who are using these rules to strangle our exporting to them...
3. Inform all nations we are in debt to, that if they try to demand immediate payment as punishment for our demanding a level playing field on exports we will nationalize their holdings in the USA and repudiate the debt...
4. Immediately close all military bases outside of the USA and recall all troops and capital assets from all over the world...

There is more, but to keep this to a reasonable length let's stop with the 4 above and list a 'few' of the reasons for each item...

1. With warm weather coming fuel oil and CNG demand will drop rapidly here in the Northern Hemisphere... Cutting the gas use of every vehicle by half will further depress demand (literally collapse it - a tsunami of another kind)... Japan for a short while now is going to have a distinct drop in demand for oil products and gasoline further collapsing the market.. The futures market (nasty speculators) in oil will implode... The sudden stoppage of the flow of trillions of dollars out of the USA will temporarily collapse consumption all over the world leaving factories standing idle... Russia and Venezuela, and the Saudis/Emirates will see their oil income go essentially to Zero overnight ... And we become energy independent overnight... All of this has very desirable outcomes for the USA... Especially, when Putin has to deal with his enslaved countries demanding freedim and he has no money to pay the military...

2. Mirror rules are the silver cross warding off the vampires of the world... I can hear weeping and wailing from those exporting countries at the mere thought of it... Nothing but good can come from doing it...

3. Requires no explanation at all... It will force the currency manipulators to the bargaining table with their hat in hand - this includes China obviously...

4. With #1 we become within 24 hours, energy independent (buying hydroelectric from Canada will continue - in fact they become overnight our single largest trading partner)... The global futures markets whose very foundation is the milking of the USA, collapse overnight (yes riots and civil wars over there, so what.)... We no longer need the oil from Arabia to survive, so we stop bleeding hundreds of billions of dollars defending them from themselves... Bring the troops home, defend the nation at the borders... As Marie Antoinette said, "Let them eat oil."

Now, having said this, I am not a mindless isolationist... That won't work in the long run... But immediately doing the 4 above will force the world to come and sit down with us to bargain because they need what we have (coal and technology and military stability) and we need their markets... Item #1 is the keystone... Do that and within 6 months we will begin making TV's and cameras here in the USA again...
 
W O W !

...I'm trying to remember if Draconian is ordinarly capitalized, or not.

Denny-O I'll give you credit for having the most decisive response I've read; Anywhere(!), and I read widely.

Do you think these actions might engender a global counter-reaction? I suspect they might: (1) Within 24-hours China will flush aproximately $900B into the world economy, and simultaneously accelerate its sell-off of US bonds (at firehouse prices). The net effect would be a USD currency crisis beyond imagination. I expect the USD would quickly become, simply worthless. (2) Other nations will follow our "lead," and nationalize any/all US corportate investments. It would rapidly become a game of who-has-who by the short hairs. (Answer: As a result of globalization, the US has more assets "abroad" than foreign investors have 'here. Net loss for us.)

Still ... fun to ponder, in a wild-eyed moment, but I'm still eight hours from Happy Hour.

If nothing else you got my attention on a quiet Monday morning!

W O W !

Best,
Casey
 
Captains Cat":zkx6kjxj said:
:shock: :shock: Hang tight a few minutes, let me get out of what few equities I have left in my portfolio....
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:lol: Bye 401K...alas I will miss you. :wink: Hell I can still work patrol when I'm 85...but some people are gonna get away. :mrgreen:
 
nice plan ..if you like living in the dark ages.

Like a bass with a scared lip I will raise to the bait again.

to make it short... power hates a vacuum. why do people think that pulling away from the world and allowing others to have more influence is a good thing???
 
....and I foolishly thought I was going to retire the end of August this year. Mark, I'm with you buddy, you provide security cover for me 'til you're 85 and I'll mend your broken heart and put out your fires until I'm 102..... :roll: Wonder if I can still make it to the top of the Columbia Tower at 102? :shock: .
 
Casey,
An interesting and thought provoking article. One item it does not mention is current tensions with China. I don't hear of China giving aid.

Another list I am on has a number of people in the oil business who feel that the full potential of US oil reserves is not being utalized. Japan could get fuel from the US--not sure about supply--and refineries.

Also the Piracy issue is relitatively small, but there are two constrictions involved for Japan--one is the Indian Ocean, the other is the Straits of Malacca--where Piracy has not been as popularized, but still remains an issue.

One issue we were discussing at dinner, is what would have been the outcome if this catestrophy had occured during WWII? Would have Japan withdrawn? Would have the Atomic Bomb been developed as rapidly? What would have been the future of Nucular energy.

On the other hand, there are 55 nuculear power plants in Japan. We assume that at least 45 are still working at full capacity.
 
Thanks, Marty,
Certainly there has been some aid from China--as that report shows that China sent 15 SAR personal. Several thousand blankets, some cotton tents etc--20,000 ton of fuel, etc. But considering the amount of trade between the two countries (8% of chinese exports and 13% of imports, to Japan) and the proximity of the countries this seems minimal.

As for past history--the current generations have little direct knowledge of the brutality of Japanese occupation (mostly over minerals and fuel), and the way of the civilized world is to forgive and move forward with trade and aid when necessary.

The magnitude of the catestrophy on Japan and its economy is huge, and certainly has world wide implications. Of course on TV we always see the worse. But Japan still has the problem of getting fuel and raw materials, which they do not possess on the Island Nation of Japan from other sources. The transportation and power infra structure has to be restored and then the factory outputs can come back up to full power in those areas which were not badly damaged.

Of course thruout the world there is a re-evaluation of the use of nuculear power and its risks.

America still has the history of being the worlds biggest donor when diseaster strikes anywhere in the world.
 
Dr Bob said:

"....But Japan still has the problem of getting fuel and raw materials, which they do not possess on the Island Nation of Japan from other sources. "
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A very good friend of mine who is Japanese, who visits there regularly to see family, told me in a conversation just before this quake, that Japan has access to huge undersea oil resources that are untapped, and that we (USA) are still shipping oil to them off the north slope under a WW2 treaty arrangement for considerably less than our cost to pump it out of the ground. The reason for not accessing their own oil, ours is cheaper.

Admitted, I have not researched this, but it comes from his common knowledge from his home country. Seems like a reasonable business decision.

Harvey
SleepyC :moon
 
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