TSUNAMI - WARNING

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El and Bill

New member
TSUNAMI ADVISORY: CAL/MEX BORDER TO ATTU-AK

There has been a massive 8.8 earthquake early this am in Chile. Large destruction and tsunamis have been generated - measured along the coast of South America and there are concerns for the entire Pacific Basin, especially the Pacific Islands - Hawaii is under alert, and possible evacuation of coastal areas. Also Australia, New Zealand, and NOAA has issued an advisory from the Calif-Mexico border to the Aleutians. Be careful this morning along the Pacific coast until the waves have passed or we know there will be none.
 
Copy of the warning from this site:http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=tsunami advisory

COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO
BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA
958 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
ATTU ALASKA...

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27 SAND PT.-AK 1629 AKST FEB 27
CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 DUTCH HARBOR-AK 1638 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 ADAK-AK 1642 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 COLD BAY-AK 1709 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 SHEMYA-AK 1721 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV[/url]
 
There have been 18 earthquakes (in excess of 5.5, so could be felt at land surface) in Chile after the big one, and at various localities along the fault zone (so some are triggered release of built-up pressure distant from the epicenter of the big one).
I have now received 13 warnings of potential tsunamis in the Pacific in the past 5 hours, so heads up folks. Most are related to distant South Pacific Islands.
 
I heard/saw this @ 0500 hours while en-route to work. First thing I did was to find out what time, if it occurrs, would it hit Hawai'i. My family is far enough from the inundation zones that they'll be initially OK, but long term we'll have to see. Could cause panic, food/gas/water/toilet paper shortages etc. The State is very prepared and I'm sure the sirens sounded early and hopefully, citizens take it seriously. Remember the 1960 Hilo tsunami; we don't need a repeat or worse.
 
Thanks Bill and Larry.

On a quick read, I could not see what time HI should be effected...or, what rate of speed the waves travel. I am not up on tracking this kind of stuff. Appreciate your input, and, figure I will have to watch Fox or Headline news.

Hope all will be OK.

Byrdman
 
well with this much warning it looks like we should get video of it at many locations. looks like this area should be affected at 3pm pacific. Won't be much at all here but I might go to the ramp and have a look.
 
We're sitting in Kona woke to CD sirens at 6:00 am, been evacuated to higher ground. Bout an hour to go before it hits. Don't expect much here, estimates are for a 6' first wave. more later michael
 
David ( Anna Leigh) heads up buddy, On Maui, Haliokala is a safe bet.

Everybody coastal, pay attention, and our prayers for your safty saftey are ongoing.

Harvey
SleepyC :moon
 
live coverage on 8 channels with nothing happening. Its at times like this that newscaster show their total lack of knowledge. Some reported just asked what time is low time on a normal day?? Surf shop owner told him "well is different everyday" reporter "really ??" back to working on the boat.
 
OK - time for some scientific speculation. What triggers an earthquake? Well, the short answer is "we don't know." We have a good idea where most earthquakes have occurred and thus a good predictive tool of the risk of where they will occur.
We know the time frequency or 'return interval' of most earthquakes along active fault zones, so that gives us a statistical measure of the time periods between earthquakes. BUT, being geologists, you kinda have to watch out for us, since we talk in terms of "plus or minus" thousands of years.
So we have a pretty good idea of where and a rough idea of how often so a VERY rough idea of the 'odds' of having one over a period of time - say the next fifty years.
But - can we predict more accurately? Well, on some active fault zones (that are monitored and well studied), we are slowly developing more accurate methods.
Here's an interesting one, that often catches popular imagination - Earth Tides. Eh? Yep, the gravitational attraction of sun and moon we, as mariners, are all well familiar with as we consult our tide tables for coastal cruising. Well, the same attraction that pulls around the ocean's water also pulls on the planet earth - and can 'bulge' the earth inches! Very accurate GPS takes into account the tide in the earth.
Well, if pressure from the movement of earth's plates due to plate tectonic forces is building us along a fault zone - the straw that breaks the camel's back - MAYBE - could be tidal forces in the earth, aligned in the right (wrong?) direction, might be the trigger to cause the breakage. Hmmm: For Crescent City, CA:

Saturday 02/27/10 10:01AM 7.84 feet High Tide
Saturday 02/27/10 4:43PM -0.92 feet Low Tide
Saturday 02/27/10 5:21PM Moonrise
Saturday 02/27/10 6:04PM Sunset
Saturday 02/27/10 11:07PM 6.92 feet High Tide
Sunday 02/28/10 4:53AM 1.19 feet Low Tide
Sunday 02/28/10 6:34AM Moonset
Sunday 02/28/10 6:53AM Sunrise
Sunday 02/28/10 8:38AM Full Moon
Sunday 02/28/10 10:55AM 7.79 feet High Tide
Sunday 02/28/10 5:24PM -0.7 feet Low Tide

Hmmm - highest high tide today, Full Moon tomorrow. Was the earth tide also higher today in Crescent City and maybe Chile?

Some scientific studies seem to show a statistically significant relationship. There are other techniques used to try to predict earthquakes, but this is long enough.
 
Barnum and Bailey would have been proud of the news media hyped attempt to conjure up waves big enough for them to ride to the top up Mauna Kea with enough viewers to beat the competition.

As usual enjoyed your analysis, Bill.

Jay
 
El and Bill,

"...Here's an interesting one, that often catches popular imagination - Earth Tides. Eh? Yep, the gravitational attraction of sun and moon we, as mariners, are all well familiar with as we consult our tide tables for coastal cruising. Well, the same attraction that pulls around the ocean's water also pulls on the planet earth - and can 'bulge' the earth inches! Very accurate GPS takes into account the tide in the earth."

Possibly a significant factor in the timing of the eruption Mt St Helens in 1981.
I happened very close to the highest high tide of the year, actually about a day prior if I remember right.

At this time, the first major wave has apparently cleared Hawaii's Big Island, Hilo Bay, noticable but without major adverse effect.

Harvey
SleepyC :moon
 
At 12:30PM local time Sunday, 28 February 2010, on the east coast (South Pacific Ocean side) of the North Island of New Zealand there has been a minimal effect from the tsunami. It hit our offshore "Chathem Islands" 4 hours ago with approximately 3 meter waves and fortunately no property damage. Everyone here has been evacuated to high ground while we wait out the remainder of the day. There have been reports of damage to the Cook Islands, a New Zealand possession, but no loss of life! I'll provide an update later today if we experience an increase in severity.
 
What will be interesting to watch is the effects this will have on the smaller achipeligos/atolls in The Pacific. I've been on Majuro, for instance, and the highest point on the "island" (it's more a dry reef with grass, trees & people on it) is a man made bridge and it was something like 16' above sea level. :shock:

According to FOXNews, the warning back home was just officially cancelled and the all clear sounded. Whew....
 
starcrafttom":liwqbgjr said:
oh and there are morons on surf boards. :roll:
Click to expand...

And one news channel describing how they were wasting their time, cause if there were large tidal waves it wouldn't be the type they could ride. Then within no time they announced Hawaii would likely be hit with heavy surf during the next 24 hours due to the tidal waves.

Don't think they're going to get their waves, but personally I'm all for them having the freedom to chance going out their own way :thup :lol:
Given enough time the gene pool of that thinking will be reduced enough where the different minded won't have to belittle them. Ya I know, supposed to think about the responders in the mean time. I have and still would rather it be no responders and my choice then having responders and my freedom of choice taken away.

Surfboarders sometimes surf huge waves and with known sharks in the water. I don't want to do either, but will not be suggesting to them not to. Warnings :thup Freedom to do or not taken away :thdown

Jay
 
Today was very calm here, flat water all around, so I went down to Thieves' Bay about 1430 PST. Tied to the floating dock, my depth sounder stayed at 4.8-4.9 metres until I left at 1600. Lots of CG chat from Canadian and US waters on the standard warnings, but not much else. I think the crest would have come by 1600, unless it came as soon as I left. They considered strong current more dangerous than any surge effects, but tidal change this afternoon was small for hours, and wrack lines and turbulence at the corner were minimal. Even Port Alberni crowd was disappointed. Just as well :D .
 
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