Matt Gurnsey
New member
Saw this on another site, and found it interesting:
According to Thom Dammrich, president of the NMMA, only 135,000 new boats of all sizes were sold at retail this year, down from over 400,000 just a few years ago. Of the 135,000 sales, about 82,000 were “non-current” inventory, which means that they did not have 2009 HIN numbers on their transoms. All of this means that dedicated boaters are still buying in the middle of the Great Recession, they are getting great deals on merchandise, and inventory is heading back to a more normal balance. Our own spot checking around the country with dealers indicates that in many sought-after brands, you may not be able to find the specific model you want in dealer inventory and it will have to be ordered. (Non-current models are often great deals.)
Only 53,000 new boats of all sizes were shipped to boat dealers this year, which is about 17% of what was shipped 3-4 years ago.
Soundings Trade Only industry magazine recently published the results of an RBC Capital Markets survey of boat dealers. This study indicates that dealers are in far better positions, generally, this year than they were in the fall of 2008, when the financial world almost melted down. According to the survey, fewer than 7% of the dealers responding stated that they had “way too much inventory,” as compared with 16% a year ago.
Another 21% of the dealers said they still "had too much", down from 34% a year ago. Interestingly, 17% of the dealers said that their inventory levels were now “way too low.” 35% of the dealers said that their inventories are currently “about right.” That means half feel they are too low or about right.
So, roughly speaking, 1/3 of the dealers are still over-stocked, 1/3 are under stocked, and 1/3 think their inventories are about right.
Still a Buyers Market
NMMA President Dammrich and other industry observers are not forecasting large sales gains in 2010, and most prudent industry veterans are banking on sales of about 135,000 to 150,000 in 2010. Most of these sales are for very small boats. Only about 33% of all boat sales are for units 21’ or larger, which means last year only about 45,000 boats 21’ or larger were sold new.
With industry-wide production at just 53,000 units this year and factories closed for much of the year, or on skeleton staffs, most observers are predicting only a modest increase in boat production for 2010 to further improve the balance of inventory in the field.
All of this means that for the short run at least, boat companies will be building to order and there will be very little building for inventory. We advise consumers planning on a new boat for next season to zero-in on the desired boat now, so that you won’t be forced to buy whatever is left in May.
Link here: http://www.boattest.com/Resources/view_ ... ewsID=3898
Random thoughts (in no particular order)-
Production will double in 2010 on new boats if sales match 2009, as most of the left over 2007 and 2008 product is gone. The problem will be getting factories back up to speed.
This means that for those wanting to buy a new boat, it will be a case of taking what the dealer has in stock (if he has one in stock) or plan on waiting 3-4 months for a boat to be built. I expect factories to be slow to rehire workers until they know for sure that a recovery is under way. This will create additional backlogs initially.
Parts will be another area of hold up. We have been told that trailer parts (frames, axles and other large components) may not be available at this point until after January 2010, and to expect a back log as orders get filled. The steel plant won't even produce some components until more orders are in place. Many manufacturers will sit idle from now until January.
The industry slump continues, and dealers are still feeling the squeeze. So much so that many dealers are not going to be doing spring boat shows, or will have much smaller spaces. Product sold for little or no profit (and even some losses), and the reduction of available dollars for flooring hasn't helped, and factory money to help pay for show space may be reduced. Often this money is based on units sold, and with sales down, factory co-op money is down.
The Vancouver Boat Show has been cancelled for 2010. The Tacoma Dome Boat Show has been cancelled for 2010. The Portland Boat Show has been reduced to five days (and looks like it is a smaller show than last year).
Seattle will still encompass two weekends (How I wish it would go to a 5 day show!
), and may be the most important show in the Northwest for viewing product. Especially for C-Dory buyers, as there is no dealer in Portland anymore. We will be at the show, but expect a smaller display than 2009.
Buyers may experience sticker shock, as prices return to normal levels as distress sale "old" product is now mostly gone. Since Seattle Boat Show only allows showing of current product, or immediate previous model year product (2010 and 2009 for this year), even if any remaining stock still exists, it won't be at the show, and since only 50,000 2009 boats were built, expect much of what you see at the show to be 2010 stock.
C-Dory was one of the few builders (under Fluid) that built much 2009 product, so there will still be some of this at the show, and very aggresive prices, I'm sure. The problem now may be getting enough 2010 product to fill gaps in our inventory in time for the show.
Yamaha has announced the discontinuing of the Century product line effective immediately.
Brunswick has announced the recall of employees to the Meridian / Sea Ray plant, and also to the Hatteras plant, so there is some good news in the industry.
According to Thom Dammrich, president of the NMMA, only 135,000 new boats of all sizes were sold at retail this year, down from over 400,000 just a few years ago. Of the 135,000 sales, about 82,000 were “non-current” inventory, which means that they did not have 2009 HIN numbers on their transoms. All of this means that dedicated boaters are still buying in the middle of the Great Recession, they are getting great deals on merchandise, and inventory is heading back to a more normal balance. Our own spot checking around the country with dealers indicates that in many sought-after brands, you may not be able to find the specific model you want in dealer inventory and it will have to be ordered. (Non-current models are often great deals.)
Only 53,000 new boats of all sizes were shipped to boat dealers this year, which is about 17% of what was shipped 3-4 years ago.
Soundings Trade Only industry magazine recently published the results of an RBC Capital Markets survey of boat dealers. This study indicates that dealers are in far better positions, generally, this year than they were in the fall of 2008, when the financial world almost melted down. According to the survey, fewer than 7% of the dealers responding stated that they had “way too much inventory,” as compared with 16% a year ago.
Another 21% of the dealers said they still "had too much", down from 34% a year ago. Interestingly, 17% of the dealers said that their inventory levels were now “way too low.” 35% of the dealers said that their inventories are currently “about right.” That means half feel they are too low or about right.
So, roughly speaking, 1/3 of the dealers are still over-stocked, 1/3 are under stocked, and 1/3 think their inventories are about right.
Still a Buyers Market
NMMA President Dammrich and other industry observers are not forecasting large sales gains in 2010, and most prudent industry veterans are banking on sales of about 135,000 to 150,000 in 2010. Most of these sales are for very small boats. Only about 33% of all boat sales are for units 21’ or larger, which means last year only about 45,000 boats 21’ or larger were sold new.
With industry-wide production at just 53,000 units this year and factories closed for much of the year, or on skeleton staffs, most observers are predicting only a modest increase in boat production for 2010 to further improve the balance of inventory in the field.
All of this means that for the short run at least, boat companies will be building to order and there will be very little building for inventory. We advise consumers planning on a new boat for next season to zero-in on the desired boat now, so that you won’t be forced to buy whatever is left in May.
Link here: http://www.boattest.com/Resources/view_ ... ewsID=3898
Random thoughts (in no particular order)-
Production will double in 2010 on new boats if sales match 2009, as most of the left over 2007 and 2008 product is gone. The problem will be getting factories back up to speed.
This means that for those wanting to buy a new boat, it will be a case of taking what the dealer has in stock (if he has one in stock) or plan on waiting 3-4 months for a boat to be built. I expect factories to be slow to rehire workers until they know for sure that a recovery is under way. This will create additional backlogs initially.
Parts will be another area of hold up. We have been told that trailer parts (frames, axles and other large components) may not be available at this point until after January 2010, and to expect a back log as orders get filled. The steel plant won't even produce some components until more orders are in place. Many manufacturers will sit idle from now until January.
The industry slump continues, and dealers are still feeling the squeeze. So much so that many dealers are not going to be doing spring boat shows, or will have much smaller spaces. Product sold for little or no profit (and even some losses), and the reduction of available dollars for flooring hasn't helped, and factory money to help pay for show space may be reduced. Often this money is based on units sold, and with sales down, factory co-op money is down.
The Vancouver Boat Show has been cancelled for 2010. The Tacoma Dome Boat Show has been cancelled for 2010. The Portland Boat Show has been reduced to five days (and looks like it is a smaller show than last year).
Seattle will still encompass two weekends (How I wish it would go to a 5 day show!
), and may be the most important show in the Northwest for viewing product. Especially for C-Dory buyers, as there is no dealer in Portland anymore. We will be at the show, but expect a smaller display than 2009.Buyers may experience sticker shock, as prices return to normal levels as distress sale "old" product is now mostly gone. Since Seattle Boat Show only allows showing of current product, or immediate previous model year product (2010 and 2009 for this year), even if any remaining stock still exists, it won't be at the show, and since only 50,000 2009 boats were built, expect much of what you see at the show to be 2010 stock.
C-Dory was one of the few builders (under Fluid) that built much 2009 product, so there will still be some of this at the show, and very aggresive prices, I'm sure. The problem now may be getting enough 2010 product to fill gaps in our inventory in time for the show.
Yamaha has announced the discontinuing of the Century product line effective immediately.
Brunswick has announced the recall of employees to the Meridian / Sea Ray plant, and also to the Hatteras plant, so there is some good news in the industry.
