Predicting the Weather

T

Trinity

New member
OK, we are kind of new at this and seem to be wrong more often than we are right. So this is what happened.....

The internet and radio predicted light winds and wind waves 1ft or less in the PNW. So we take off and things are a little breezy. But we figure we are going with the wind and the tide so we will be OK. Then we hit 3ft beam seas. Our tug, and captain, did just fine, but not so fun for the crew. Today, Monday, is supposed to be windy with 1-2ft wind waves. Calm and flat..... What is a boater to do?

What weather predictors is everyone using out there?
Is there anything you have on your boat other than the VHF radio for weather?
 
I usually keep an eye on the marine forecast online before a trip, and listen to the weather radio when on the boat, but things like tide, and underwater structure can affect the conditions of the water. If the forecast is good, you can usually expect it to stay fairly decent, and the reverse too, I've also canceled trips out to the coast for poor forcasts then my buddies tell me how it looked like a lake out there. Weather can and does change, but I've yet to run into really bad weather when the forecast was for flat sea's. It might be a little breezier, or calmer than forcasted which will affect the lumpiness factor. Did you maybe end up in a tide rip?

Sark
 
Sark,
Thanks for the reply. We may have been in a tide rip. Being by someplace called "Foul Weather Bluff".... The winds were a lot stronger than the forecast. Does that go to local knowledge, or do people carry barometers and wind meters on their boats? Do you monitor the marine radio all day or just occasionally?

Am I asking for a more exact science when there isn't one?
 
Garmin has a unit (378?) that allows you to monitor the XM Navweather service which is supposedly localized and "real time". I am considering buying the unit (its not cheap) and it would be interesting to hear if anyone has any experience with the service.
 
I have been aboard boats with both the XM and Sirius weather. Both are helpful. Check the Electronics board on the Hull Truth for various opinions. As I recollect the XM on Garmin does not do chart plotter overlay. The displays are impressive. but as anything else, I would want as large a chart display as possiable--or subscribe to the weather service on the cell phone, if it is range.

The most help is spotting thunder storm cells which are beyond your radar range--and using that for planning. It may give you more time to run in to seak shelter. There is a monthly charge--I think from $29 to $50, depending on the service.

I have never lusted for this type of weather instrument. I do my forcasts from computer information (including the NOAA weather charts, Weather.com and marine forecasts).

You have, what you have--and have to be prepared for it, or stay in port if there is a question.
 
Thanks Bob and Sarge-

Looks like we need to take a laptop with us to get the most accurate weather info. Still, a sharp eye and common sense should prevail.

Great web site Sarge! That is just what we are looking for.

Nancy
 
Trinity,
That same web site will also give you a dynamic view of the tides. Right now we are getting some quite large tidal differences and it doesn't take much wind against tide to produce some nice 3 - 4 ft washing machine chop in a number of well known spots around the Sound.
You will soon find out where they are and usually you can go around them.
enjoy

Merv
 
Well, once we get done with the Olympic regrade public works project and get rid of those snow capped hills out West of Seattle, predicting the weather will be much easier. We live on the water and awake every morning to noah on the clock radio. The high and low pressure's, wind and storms split and go around those darn hills and where they end up is not an exact science.
The worst small plane flight I ever had (almost my last) was with a pilot who could not bring himself to adjust the flight plan when things got rough. We always start out our day on the water with a plan "B" both in terms of destination and route. Fog wind and tide are all greater factors when you plan to cross open water or need to cross it again to get home.
 
I used to use the NOAA forecast but found that it isn't always very accurate or at least it doesn't give a good local idea of what's going on. There's about 4 things I look at when contemplating my offshore fishing trips. First is the swell height, then the period between them. A 6 foot swell at 14 seconds if nearly flat but a 6 foot swell at 6 seconds is no fun. Then I look at the predicted wind speed and direction. I prefer wind that's under 15knts. Then next factor is to look at the trend for the next day. If it's an improving trend I'm more confidant of what conditions to expect.

I use www.wetsand.com since they show graphical maps of all of the above mentioned factors. It gives a much better idea of what region might get 6 foot swells and what are might be getting bigger ones ect. Ignore the surf forecast since it doesn't correlate to boating very well. Here is a link to the washington coast.

To effectively use these features you click on the tabs "height", "period", "wind" and you can also click the day of the week. Clicking the days in rapid succession gives kind of a crude "movie" of changing conditions if you watch the color gradients move.
http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/swell ... ?CatId=292
 
Trinity --- I have been sitting here for some time trying to piece together a quick lesson on Puget Sound boating conditions. Unfortunately where you live can be the most difficult area to predict. I'm sure that you have heard of the "convergence zone". This is where the west wind comes around the Olympics from the north and south and meets somewhere near Edmonds. The wind has nowhere to go but up. Picture the currents doing the same thing. The Ebb comes south around Point Nopoint swirling around in a circle in Skunk Bay while the Hood Canal water comes out and meets this swirl head on, you guessed it, at Foulweather Bluff. No fancy electronic instruments can tell you of these idiosyncracies. Remember, when Steve Pool says the wind will come from the north or south, he is speaking only of overall trends. There are too many bays, islands, and mountains that affect the currents and winds. I have sailed these waters for over fifty years and have learned most of what I know by talking to other boaters and reading the charts and asking myself "What would happen if...". Common sense and the courage to turn back are very important. Sign up for the Anacortes gathering and we can continue this discussion. --- Cary
 
I have been on boats on the Chesapeake for 35 years...in shallow draft, wood, deadrises...slow...they can't get awayfrom weather.
Before all the now accepted weather warning things,i used to ask local watermen if i should cross to Baltimore, or go out in my river, for that matter...Sometimes it was sunny, flat caa'm, and then, two hours later, a boomer with six foot waves, short and close, and 60 mphwind for an hour...i learned to listen to them.
Now, i check NOAA, i talk to them, i listen to the radio, i check an iternet radar site, ...but most of all, i am not shy about turning back...last summer i had a group of four on my boat for a fun trip to Baltimore ..two hours across the Bay, dock, go to an Oriole's game, hit a bar, and return at midnight under a starlit sky...the weather changed, in a subtle way, and one of my watermen friends said.."Tom, by midnight we're going to have something pretty on the Bay" that night it blew over sixty, for about an hour and two boats were lost, two lives. Listen, and err on the side of caution..

terraplane
 
Wow,
Thank you for all the good advice, and tips.
Cary, we will try and connect with you in Anacortes. If we don't boat up we may just drive. Appreciate you being willing to spend some time with us.

Nancy
 
There a lots of people on this site who really know their stuff about weather. I am certainly not one of them so I'm not as sophisticated as many of the responders. I check the tides, currents where I'm planning to go, I use the Canadian weather site "The weather network" and get a daily e-mail of Haro strait (or many others but that's the one most useful to me), each day that give me winds and predicted wave heights in the strait for several times during the day. I also use the ferry weather site mentioned earlier plus the Washington Marine forecast, in my case for the San Juans area. if it appears there is going to be much wind I check the Canadian Current and Tides Atlas using this year's key. That shows direction and relative strength of currents throughout the San Juans/Gulf Islands in pretty specific detail. Putting that together with predicted winds I can get an idea of likely wind vs. current and thus ugly standing waves etc.

I think the best weather action and reaction is prudence. When we go out we're not on missions of mercy or winning a great race, we are planning to have a good and safe time so if the weather looks ugly, particularly, if for example 3-5 wind waves are predicted in our cruising areas, we'll just not go out. We're not out to prove anything. Admittedly, if I am alone I might push things a bit more to give myself more experience but if Patti or someone else is with me I'm much more prone to err on the side of caution.
 
Terraplane, your lucky! Here in Alexandria, there are no watermen. I'd have to ask a Washington bureaucrat and then have to wait until he consulted the polls! :cry

Allan
 
The old adage " Everyone talks about the weather . but no body does anything about it" Question is what are us boaters to do?
It seems to me that the weather forecast is wrong about 75 % of the time here in Florida. They ought to just flip a coin. Odds are better

Case in point: I have two good fishing buddies here in Florida. One lives in Panama City and the other in Ocala. The one in Panama is selling his boat. He says the weather is bad most of the time so he rarely gets out on his boat, He claims about 3 or 4 time a year is about all the weather windows he gets. Why pay slip rent of $300 a month just for that? He listens to the forecasts and determines it to be rough out there.
The one in Ocala listens to the weather and goes regardless of the predicted weather. When he gets out on the water and sees that it is flat as a pancake, he goes on off shore. He gets out fishing maybe 100 times a year. He would never get rid of his boat except to buy another.

In other words. Listen to everyone, but take a look for your self.
The cotton tail on the donkey: If it is wet its raining. if standing straight out it blowing if its gone its a hurricane.
I have learned the best way to Cross the Gulf Stream is to listen to the forecasts. But get on the radio and ask someone out there what IS happening. ( depends on what the word "is" is.).....sound familiar.... If it is to rough for you and passengers when you get out there .......turn around and wait for a better day.

I have no desire to go when or where others fear to tread. We are fair weather sailers and proud of it. Been fooled a couple times, but than we got to tough it out.
Found the boat can take more than we can.

I doubt there is a gem of info in this post, But what the heck its something to read.

captd
 
The marine weather forecast is ALWAYS wrong here (Birch Bay - NOAA's Camano to Point Roberts forecast), and if we did not go out when they were predicting winds and seas beyond our comfort level, we might never get to go out...(a slight exaggeration, but close). So what we do here is look out the window, look at the tree tops, and if all if good, we go to the launch and give it a try. We have almost never had to turn back. Of course if there is a big front that is region wide, we pay attention to that.
 
Capt D--I wonder about your friend in Panama City--about the same weather as we have in Pensacola. I find a lot of fantastic boating days a year. I have been out about every other day the last several weeks--and this is "winter"--with heavy rain today. Sure there are afternoon thunderstorms But that should not stop a boater--especially if you want to just play on the ICW or rivers. Our weather forcasts are fairly good in Pensaccola.
 
Hey I bought a C-Dory in part because I can go out in the rain. I actually really like it provided it isn't to heavy. It's nice to cruise by those high dollar center consoles with the triple engines and see the captain soak and wet. As far as weather forecasting many of the hard core fishermen around here use the smoke stack on the local powerhouse to plan their fishing trip. It's on the way to one of the more popular boat ramps. If the smoke is going straight up they go off shore otherwise they fish close to or inshore. Modern technology is nice but for me theirs a point when it takes the fun out of things.
 
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