Nerd fight!!!
ActiveCaptain":26t8qw3f said:
The iPhone certainly has the attention of every developer right now because of two simple facts:
1. The very, very large base of installed units owned by people who buy apps from $0.99 to $4.99 in large quantities.
Agreed. But unlike the desktop computer market, smartphone adoption is far from ubiquitous. There is huge room for growth and consumer adoption. The potential market for these devices, is far larger than the installed base. In my circle of friends and family, smartphone adoption is pretty slim overall. Even more telling - I'd guess only 30-40% of my co-workers have them, all of whom are fellow nerds.
Point being - while the iPhone has an obviously huge advantage in numbers right now over other offerings, it does not have a stranglehold on the population as a whole. Looking at it from that perspective, its adoption is minuscule. If something better/cheaper comes along, there is still plenty of room for competition...unlike the desktop market.
And cost, will definitely be one of the determining factors in this battle. Even amongst those I know who are intrigued by smartphones, there are many who simply won't shell out the bucks - myself included. If these devices hit the sub-$100 barrier with no long-term contracts, they'll simply overtake 'dumb" phones. From a cost perspective, Apple won't be able to compete - they'll need to rely on the same model that makes then successful on the desktop, which is the unique and complete user experience - something I think is far tougher to stay on top of, in the smartphone market.
ActiveCaptain":26t8qw3f said:
I keep hearing that Android is going to take over because it's open source, etc. Makes sense. But then, how come Linux hasn't even overtaken the Macintosh in all of these years?
It has - and in fact it's overtaken Windows, Sun and every other OS out there, in a relatively short time. I'm only being somewhat facetious...I'm of course, referring to servers in the data center and embedded devices.
Point is, Linux on the desktop is a far greater challenge than in other areas. Applications drive hardware, not the reverse - and it's far more difficult to replace applications on desktops, than on centrally managed servers or for homogeneous hardware. Desktop computers also have another huge hurdle that prevents users from switching OS's, that doesn't exist on servers - peripherals. There are countless peripherals, that have Mac or Windows requirements.
Smartphones are an entirely different beast. Their support model is much more like servers, than like desktops...which makes the previously mentioned application and peripheral hurdles, far easier to overcome. Everything is centrally managed. Hardware is extremely limited, compared to desktops. OS's are far more simplistic than their desktop counterparts. All of these issues, point to an environment that has a far lower barrier to enter than desktop OS's.
And finally...Google has a huge advantage in the GIS/mapping arena, which is quickly becoming one of the more compelling reasons to pick up a smartphone. Jim already touched on how well Google's earliest developments in this technology work on the Droid, and it will only get better. Geo-locating is becoming an integral part of many applications. In this regard, nobody can currently compete with Google - they have far more data tied to maps, than anyone else.
If one agrees with the above, suggesting Apple's days of dominance in smartphone market are numbered, doesn't take a huge leap of faith.
ActiveCaptain":26t8qw3f said:
The development schedule for our next platforms of ActiveCaptain are: iPhone, Blackberry, and Android - in that order. I'm very willing to change things as the market tells me but right now, the market is speaking quite clearly.
Can't blame you in the least - that seems like a smart financial move. With an app as unique as yours, there's little risk in being late to the Android party if it does take off. For something more generic, or with more competition - being first out can have its advantages.