Hurricane Season

[El and Bill]

Our CO forecasting center has released it's 2013 hurricane prediction. Many have seen it on national news, but good to reiterate here for long-term planning purposes.

BAD SEASON predicted. Like all predictions, the scientific models aren't perfect so neither are the predictions. But, it is the best climatologists can do.
As prudent boaters, we should be aware of the increased risk, especially along the East Coast (but also the Gulf Coast).

So for those who boat or live near the coast, be aware. For those planning long cruises , beware. Monitor weather carefully and plan accordingly. Cruising during hurricane seasons, we have returned on land to our parked truck, driven ahead and parked it, returned to the boat and cruised toward the truck. Then, should a storm be predicted, the truck was not too distant and we could pull the boat and either trailer inland or find a storm-secure storage.

 

[journey on]

Bill, just out of curiosity, why is a Colorado institution issuing a hurricane forecast? Why not a Florida institution or even NOAA/NWS? Is this the "official" hurricane forecast for the US? Will NOAA issue their own later?

Glad to be on the West Coaast.

Boris

 

[El and Bill]

Boris-
Guess there are some researchers at local universities who 'love' hurricanes and long-term predictions. NOAA also has a major climatology center here. They probably fund the Univ. research and have their own experts who co-ordinate with them. Nice to predict natural hazards, and live far from them, eh? I don't know if this is 'official' NOAA forecast or not, but the prediction locally carries NOAA name as sanctioning the prediction.

And, about the West Coast...we have a major USGeol Survey office here in CO ... One that makes predictions regarding west coast earthquakes.

So -- pays your money, takes your choice. Hurricanes or quakes? Those predicting, 'hide out' here in CO.

 

[thataway]

We have now lived on the Gulf Coast for 21 years. We also lived in VA for 2 years, and in Texas for 4 years, plus cruised the East Coast another year. I have now been thru 10 major hurricanes, which were a direct hit or a nearly direct hit. Only one of those was close to catastrophic. (Marie has one up on me, since she was in Pascagoula, MS, during Camille)

Unfortunately I have found the hurricane seasons predictions of very little use. What we do is constantly track all of the storms and the models.

People who have not lived in these areas don't realize how relatively small areas that the direct hits are. The super high wind, is often 50 to 100 miles across max. some storms run along the coast, stall out, and give heavy rain etc, and can also cause a lot of damage.

For Example the center of Katrina, which did massive damage in MS, was 100 miles from our house--and we had no damage, and the storm surge was not enough to flood any homes in our area, but Dauphine Island (about 42 miles from us and 58 miles from the center track had significant damage). In 2004 Ivan came right over our house, with winds of 135 knots recorded in gusts 3 miles from our house--and over 50% of the houses on our street were not habitual and 25% were destroyed.. The next year the eye of Dennis was about 25 miles away, with no damage, even though there was 120 knots at the eye, and 100 knots i Pensacola.

This year the report says: "enhanced activity” this year, with a 47 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas.

They go on to say that there remains a chance of an El Nino which will moderate the activity.

"center predicts there is an 80 percent chance of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico this year, compared to the long-term average of 60 percent. There is a 96 percent chance of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the coast of the United States, compared to a long-term average of 84 percent."

So, would you change your boating plans based on this--absolutely not! With a hurricane, generally you have significant warning to get out of the way! You would be a prudent mariner and watch for storms as they form. Especially watch the areas where storms form which track thru the area where you are, and then take precautions if there appears to be a storm headed your way.

 

[El and Bill]

Forewarned is forearmed. Of course, don't change cruising plans based on predictions.

BUT - be aware of the increase in predicted risk and be even more alert if cruising the east and gulf coast this year. Hurricanes are extremely variable -- some impact a relatively small area, and others large areas (either way, if in the predicted path take cover). Climatologists study causes and affects, not based on 20 years experience, but on hundreds of years. I vividly recall the widespread (most of New England) affect of the '38 hurricane still clearly visible in the 1950's. Those 700 or so folks who didn't take heed paid for it with their lives.

Here's the news story in our area, based on climatologist's research at CSU:

Scientists predict busy hurricane season

A team of Colorado State University meteorologists predicts above-average hurricane activity in 2013.

The annual forecast issued Wednesday by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray calls for 18 named storms and nine hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin this year. That compares to averages of 12 named storms and 6.5 hurricanes.
Their prediction is similar to that of long-range specialist Joe Bastardi of the private meteorology firm WeatherBell, who predicted 16 named storms and 12 hurricanes.

The two forecasts also call for higher-than-average risk of landfall in the Carolinas.

Klotzbach and Gray said warm water in the tropical Atlantic and little chance of an El Niño condition in the Pacific Ocean are key reasons for their prediction.

They say warm Atlantic water tends to lead to weak trade winds and relatively low pressure at the surface. Both conditions are conducive to tropical storm formation.
Bastardi said those conditions also are likely to breed more of the long-lived Cape Verde hurricanes, which form in the eastern Atlantic and strengthen as they approach the Caribbean and North America.

These predictions are in advance of the annual forecast by the National Hurricane Center, which comes in late May. The hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is June 1-Nov. 30, with the most activity from mid-August into early October.

In their forecast, Klotzbach and Gray said conditions this year are similar to those in five years in the past century – 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. That is an ominous prediction for the Carolinas.

The 1996 season included Hurricane Fran, which caused devastating floods across Eastern North Carolina.

In 2004, six storms affected the Carolinas – Alex, Bonnie, Frances, Gaston, Ivan and Jeanne. Hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne made landfall in Florida, then curved northward and dumped very heavy rain in the Carolinas mountains

Klotzbach cautioned people in hurricane-prone areas not to focus on the number of predicted storms.

Klotzbach and Gray are coming off a not-so-stellar performance with their predictions in 2012. They forecasted 10 named storms (19 developed) and four hurricanes (there were 10). Those predictions were wrecked, in part, because an El Niño condition (cool eastern Pacific Ocean waters) never developed as expected. El Niño conditions send a west-to-east wind across the southern United States, disrupting the circulation in tropical weather systems.

Little or no El Niño activity is expected again this summer and fall, the Colorado State team says.