Gustav - CAT 4/5

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eNORMous

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2007
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25 Cruiser
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Antibody
Just checked NOAA and satellite imagery - GUSTAV is now expected to be a CAT 4 (>50% probability) and will probably approach a CAT 5 before reaching Lousiana. The singular GOOD point (if there ANY good points) is it will make landfall during the daylight hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

We'll see how well the Army Corps of Engineers faired on the upgrades.
 
For any Brat folks in that area, NOW is a real good time to get out. I am a wuss when it comes to this stuff... if it has a name, I am packing. If it ramps up to an official whirley-girl, I am outta here. The cone of probability is still pretty big, and Fay should have taught anyone in that cone, that these weather predictions are educated guesses, at best.

Friends of ours stayed when Dolly was predicted to be "just" a Category 1. Yeah, it ramped up to a strong Cat 2 and hung around for almost 30 hours... 120+ mph winds and 22" of rain during that time. There is damn little you can do to protect yourself or your stuff in those conditions... and the aftermath of no power, water, or sanitation for a week or more isn't fun. Those same friends have now said they are absolutely leaving if it has a name, and going at least 300 miles inland.

Good luck to all the folks along the Gulf Coast. Gustav is currently 150 mph with gusts to 185. This is going to be ugly.
 
Most of us in Pensacola feel that we are reasonably safe. But we are always ready if there is a change. For us, this means that all affairs are in order, all vehicles are full of fuel, generators are in good shape and have fuel, hard drives are backed up, 4 days of food and water (at least) are on hand, as well as batteries, radios, etc. Of course we have had a lot of practice in the last few years.

WE have not put up the storm shutters yet. I believe that the path is fairly well defined on Gustav--but Hanna is another story. We may get a 1/2 punch. We can be on our way out of town in 4 hours, with the RV and boat in tow behind the truck--both vehicles have a "range" of over 600 miles, without picking up fuel.

We wish the best to our brothern to the West of us. If anyone needs a place to stay, we have plenty of room, room for RV's with hookups etc-plus we do have a "whole house" generator, so should have power even if the mains go down.
 
Mayor Ray Nagin orders New Orleans evacuated, calling Hurricane Gustav "the mother of all storms". You gotta love Ray - the "Mutha" of all storms. On top of the recent ground saturation (what, nearly 22"-26" in many areas of FL?), Gustav and Hanna could deliver enough H20 to float Disney World down to Havana, Cuba.
 
I sat there and let Andrew hit me. As long as I have a working vehicle, no hurricane will ever hit me again. I'm not scared of a marginal cat 1, but look what happened with Charlie. Wasn't a big bad storm, and wasn't going to hit Punta Gorda, until a few hours before it did hit, when it became a very strong storm. Look at what happened with Dolly in Jim's post above.

I have a couple of stories of people who stayed for hurricanes, and through some heroic action were able to save some (probably insured) property. I also know of injuries and deaths from that kind of thing. My advice: take anything money can't replace and leave if a hurricane is aimed at you. People in a panic packed expensive clothes and electronics and left behind family photo albums and insurance paperwork. Do that the other way around.

Gustav kind of fell apart leaving Cuba, and isn't looking too strong out over the warm water. Jeff Masters at wxunderground says there is cold water and wind shear ahead of it, both of which should inhibit the storm. I hope it's not too bad wherever it hits.

As for me, I went sailing between rain bands yesterday, and plan to again today. Hurricanes that are not aimed at you can be kind of fun as they go by.
 
For those who do have to leave and get hit, going back may be hard. You should bring a chainsaw with fuel and oil and a large pair of bolt cutters. Also bring a few of those fix-a-flat cans and a tire plugging kit. Make sure your spare tire is OK.

There is no such thing as enough fuel, water, or ice after the storm.

This is going to sound weird, but you might want a GPS or a map, depending on the character of your neighborhood. All of us in my old neighborhood in Miami got lost after Andrew right in our own neighborhood. Nothing looked like it used to, but it all looked the same, and there were no street signs. Addresses spray painted on the houses to aid insurance adjusters were the only clue which street you were on, and those appeared only gradually.
 
After Ivan, we had to go down a utility right of way about 3 miles and then with permission thru a person's back yard to a public road (from the farm I was staying at). The roads were blocked by fallen trees. But when there are hundreds of trees, it is probably best to let the folks who live near there handle them. We crossed many downed power lines--and since we were in a 4 x 4 with lift, we were able to go many places that even a pickup could not go. We had to swim.wade the last few hundred yards to our homes. Security was an issue--and even the first night after the storm, there were potential looters. To my knowlege only one shot was fired--and apparently the word was out. Our "you loot, we shoot" sign seemed to be effective.

In our case, Marie takes the RV towing a Honda Pilot with the "valuables". I have a truck and the boat. I return to the house as soon as possible. I do carry a small chain saw, several 200 foot dacron ropes, a block and tackle, a come-along, an ax and of course plenty of water and some food in the truck. Also good foot protection is essential. We also called our insurance company--just to get in line immediately when I got home (the phone lines still worked for about 24 hours until the batteries ran down at the switching stations. It was 6 weeks before we had phone service after Ivan.

We have our boats set up for a six to 8 foot storm surge and up to 50 knot winds...I doubt that we will get more than that in Pensacola.
 
I've been through hurricanes in LA, GA, NC and FLorida and anything approaching cat 2 and I'm outta here. When I was a kid in 1954 we lived on the ICW in Topsail NC and hurricane Hazel came. We had several old wooden fishing boats and my dad just pulled the outboards and pulled the drain plug letting them sink in the basin in front of our house to be protected from the wind. We had one old boat that was maybe 18' and had it in the yard bottom up and had been scraping barnacles off the bottom. It was about 10' from and old hickory tree and dad tied the bow off to the tree. I remember looking out the window at the storm and seeing that boat flop in the wind like a rag everytime a gust would come. It eventually pulled the stem loose and we had kindling for the next several years. I think that storm was only cat 2 when it hit us. Good luck to everyone in the line of the storm.
 
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