Is shutting down the economy worth it?

One of the issues with the shutdown is that it may have been too effective. My sister works as head of the ER in one of the local hospitals. Not only did she recently take a pay cut, the health group that runs the hospital had to furlough 300 people because the shutdown has cut their revenue so much. If the people that are on the "front lines" of fighting the pandemic have to take pay cuts and furloughs, seems like something's not right.
 
MartyP:

I honestly don't know Harborview's Covid+census; I last saw their numbers several weeks ago in an internal update. I believe at that time Northwest had the most among the hospitals in our system.

This site should provide a picture of the magnitude and trend in WA State. The Excel chart gives county-wide information as of 4/19 for infections and deaths. Other charts show the trend and demographics.
(I believe it's updated on Sundays):

https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus

On edit: I believe this is the update I referred to above. Unfortunately it doesn't reflect current numbers:

https://huddle.uwmedicine.org/sites/hud ... 282%29.pdf

It's now public info. Note that VM=Valley Med. Ctr; NW= Northwest; UWMC ML= UW Montlake (main hospital, where I work), HMC=Harborview.

Stay safe!
 
I just heard today that the highest death rate in the US for 24 hours was just yesterday. Yes some states are down but over all, more people died Saturday than any day so far. Lessening or loosening the Stay At Home practices may help the economy however that does not mean that the virus will be taking a break. It travels person to person.

Harvey
SleepyC :moon

IMGP2234.thumb.jpg
 
Marty,
Thank you, that is an outstanding article. I don't always agree with the New Yorker's take on situations, but this article is spot on.

Also reading the references at the bottom of the article are some excellent resources.

Westward, good stats, but wish they were more recent.

So many states/counties are relaxing the restrictions, it is gong to be a very interesting time. Hopefully if any re-restriction or further restrictions are done, they will be determined using scientific principles, not shotgun responses by politicians (of either stripe)

We have a 200 bed acute nursing home/rehab unit which had 50% infection rate and about a 15% hospitalization rate and 4% death rate. There is a second facility, with only 100 beds with almost the same percentage,, but a higher death count. Almost all of these will have comorbidity factors, even if it is just post op surgery.

Florida's governor sent a National Guard strike team (medical and public health professions) to investigate, report and solve the issue. That is common sense.

Today (Sunday May3) we have seen the highest number of new cases in Pensacola. Some of That may be cases uncovered by the National Guard strike team which is working 24/7 to resolve the long term care facilities issues.

Pensacola opens up restaurants tomorrow for 25% seating and outdoor dining. There was a "drive thru" farmer's market this morning. (distancing and masks required.). All retail stores 50% capacity open Monday. Gyms and Theaters, etc are still closed. We had a peak at around the first of April, then downward trend, but the last few days, an upward trend has developed. Most of these appear to be in the nursing homes. Florida has a state web site which breaks down all of the metrics by Zip Code. Not sure if WA and other states have the same metrics available. Good way of tracking what is happening in your area.

Hang on, the ride is not over...but watch the scientists not the moving lips!

Keep safe and go boating!
 
Harvey: you’re right, it’s absolutely the case that the virus is still active and potentially lethal. Re-opening will surely need to be done with best practices in place, because the virus will still be active and lethal this Summer, Fall, Winter and beyond. I have not heard anyone credible suggest it will be controlled prior to the development of a successful vaccine. Even then, it will unfortunately continue to cost lives, just fewer. Infection control is key.

BTW: What is your source for yesterday’s Covid death count? I didn’t see that
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This is the most reasonable way to determine "opening up" vs staying "hunkered"
w/o a vaccine or therapeutic medication. Difficult for some since it involves data
and science. It removes opinions, politics and guessing; hence reasonable. It also
can be calculated for the nation, states or smaller areas.

The Metric We Need to Manage COVID-19
Rt: the effective reproduction number
(Partial quotes from reference)
There’s one metric, however, that has the most promise. It’s called Rt – the effective reproduction number. We can estimate it, and it’s the key to getting us through the next few months.

Most people are more familiar with R0. R0 is the basic reproduction number of an epidemic. It’s defined as the number of secondary infections produced by a single infection. If R0 is greater than one, the epidemic spreads quickly **. If R0 is less than one, the epidemic spreads, but limps along and disappears before everyone becomes infected. The flu has an R0 between one and two while measles sits in the high teens. While R0 is a useful measure, it is flawed in an important way: it’s static.

Tracking Rt also lets us know when we might loosen restrictions. Any suggestion that we loosen restrictions when Rt > 1.0 is an explicit decision to let the virus proliferate. At the same time, if we are able to reduce Rt to below 1.0, and we can reduce the number of cases overall, the virus becomes manageable. Life can begin to return to ‘normal.’ But without knowing Rt we are simply flying blind.
http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-n ... -covid-19/
Click to expand...

See https://rt.live for current updates.

Aye.
Oh, "flying blind" is akin to opening up while the virus is spreading exponentially;
driving your boat in dense fog at WOT.
 
Saw an article today where the French are monitoring the Paris sewer system for Covid virus. They feel that evidence of the virus will allow them to predict whether opening back up is working.

Very troubling that the virus seems to be transmittable by fecal matter. Not a pleasant thought, but day care centers are ground zero for this type of transmission. Couple that with asymptomatic toddlers and this could be hard to trace.

I was reminded again of Typhoid Mary again. She was finally identified because of the sleuthing of a "sewage engineer" (Typhoid is also transmittable by fecal matter). It seems Mary never read the sign that employees need to wash their hands before returning to work. Either that or she was a really s**tty cook.
 
This crisis is on a par with the great depression and WWII. For us old folks with great retirements it is an inconvenience. I cannot begin to compare my 'suffering' (no gym, no wider family gatherings etc) with what you younger people are experiencing. Nor with those with very limited incomes or homeless. I have greatly increased my contributions to such. Also I need to contribute to the Community Clinic (this was President Bush II's great initiative). I use them as one of my primary care places. Their workers are all great people.
 
RobLL":szn44y2c said:
I need to contribute to the Community Clinic (this was President Bush II's great initiative). I use them as one of my primary care places. Their workers are all great people.
Click to expand...

Community Health Centers were an initiative Lyndon Johnson's Great Society In 1968 or 9 I went to Louisville on a USPHS grant to document the development of the one there, a joint effort of the Louisville Courier-Journal, the American Friends' Service Committee, & Dr. Harvey Sloane, who later became Louisville's mayor, and others. It was a golden time of American health care with the onset of Medicare in 1965, TitleXVIII of the Social Security act, and Medicaid, Title XIX during the ensuing 5 years.
 
We've known for a while a lot can be learned about someone from what
they put in their trash.

Turns out lots can be learned from what we flush down the toilet (that
may help with COVID-19 detection).

Surely many will now cry "invasion of privacy!". To them I say try keeping
everything in your house.

Aye.
 
Jay, One might say that Los Angeles had wide spread diseases by March 19, the date of the "Lockdown". Would have it been worse--like New York--if there was not a "lockdown"? (I have a daughter who lives in Culver City, but very close to Los Angeles city areas). On the date of the lockdown there were approximately 300 laboratory proven tests of COVID 19 and 4 deaths. Last Stats about 45 days later show 28,749 laboratory confirmed cases and 1,369 deaths "reported". The first case in LA was speculated to have been in Feb. The first reporting in March was on the 4th with 6 cases. But the number known grew far more rapidly than any other city in Calif. There is the lead time between infection and symptoms/positive test. Plus the lack of testing. This was at least 6 days and may have been longer. My son in law (who lives in LA county) most likely had the COVID 19 the end of January. He had exposures to South Koreans on a daily basis. He then flew across the US and attended the Super Bowl (where the symptoms appeared). He then flew back. No one had a clue that he may have been infected until some time later. Repeat this story many times. That give the infection rates. Our Stats are all off, because we did not recognize the problem earlier (No blame to any specific people here).

I am not arguing for or against the lockdown.
 
An update on Kitsap County and its several naval installations and many people working all of the time. We have had only two deaths, 150 or so cases, and only one diagnosed so far this month. Everyone continues to be careful and respectful of others. Acute phase is now in the past, and we are in phase 1, next three phases are expected with 3 week intervals. Even in phase 4 social distancing is recommended. Especially for us 80 year olds. Parks, fishing and hunting are open. Kid tracked down N95 masks. I will wear them if I am closer to other people.

Today I went to one of our Heritage Parks, almost like old growth forest. Then tried to phone bro- phones were not wanting to work - remember the old days, you just picked up the phone, and dialed and it worked (actually I remember when you told the operator who you wanted to talk to.
 
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