Is shutting down the economy worth it?

More Becker fits in here:

"...as life goes on we get a perspective on this and all these different versions of truth become a little pathetic. Each person thinks that he has the formula for triumphing over life's limitations and knows with authority what [is true], and he usually tries to win a following for his particular patent. Today we know that people try so hard to win converts for their point of view because it is more than merely an outlook on life: it is an immortality formula.”
― Ernest Becker, The Denial of Death
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Projection is as old as mankind.

Aye.
 
Interesting discussions going on here. One thing that I note looking in from the great white north on this thread and in the media is how political the Covid-19 issue is south of border. But, then your politics is generally more exciting and headline grabbing than our boring politics here in Canada usually is. We Canuks have been pretty good boy scouts and are for the most part doing as we are told and staying home. I am fortunate to have my ranch to hide out in, which is not much different than normal. Most of our snow disappeared about a week ago and the bison have dropped about a dozen calves in the pastures. The blue birds are back and the river broke up. One of my local lakes where I like to kayak still has a thick layer of ice on it. I only go to town about every ten days or so, basing my timing on when I run out of milk. In my county we are fortunate that there have only been five cases of C-19 reported, all travel related and three are now recovered. So it is a fairy safe place to hang out. We have my 88 year old mother staying with us for almost six weeks now. The Calgary region has has a lot of cases, the biggest percentage of which are related to the Cargil meat plant which is now closed. This plant normally kills about 4500 cattle a day. The JBS meat plant which is almost as big is down to one shift and may also close. These two plants process 75% of the beef in Canada. It is really a perfect storm working in these plants. I have toured the Cargil plant and 2000 workers stand shoulder to shoulder here. Like most people working in the meat packing industry, they are recent immigrants and refugees. Some of the problems stem from them working closely together, but much comes from them often living with several families in one house and car pooling to the plant. These people are for the most part young and healthy. Our biggest problem with the most deaths come from the nursing homes where 79% of the deaths have occurred. The private for profit homes seem to fare the worst. If there is only one thing we change out of pandemic is that we need to change how these homes are run. The for profit model has many of them running the homes more like a Walmart or Mcdonalds, with most of the staff only getting part time hours. Since most of these people are recent immigrants, they often need to work two or more jobs, often this means working in two care homes. This is risky business. I hope that before I have to put my mother into a home or definitely before Judy and I need to live in one, that changes are made to how we treat our elders in their final years. Something else that I need to advocate for in my retirement. There are now discussions beginning on how to reopen the economy, some provinces will open before others as places like Saskatchewan and New Brunswick never had many cases of C-19. The hotspot provinces will need to take is slower. We have been fortunate that the government has implemented many programs to help workers and businesses with financial assistance. For example if you are worker that has lost his or her job in a retail store or restaurant you are being paid $2,000 a month to stay home. Tourism is one of the hardest hit industries and will all the parks closed for an indefinite time and the borders closed as well, this sector is really troubled. all big events have been cancelled including the Calgary Stampede for the first time in about a century. I am guessing that most of the country will not open much before summer. My various vacation plans are all on hold. It will be interesting to see what the 'new normal' evolves into after this. I look at this event much like a war is in history. Wars are events that cause the direction of a society to pivot and often is the end of one era and the beginning of a new era. Centuries do not have beginnings and ends that begin or end with two zeros. I feel that the 19th century started with the Nepolionic Wars and ended with the first world war. The 20th century began with the first world war and maybe this is the end of 20th century. I don't think that we will be going back to the old ways, but hopefully we will forge some new ways that are more suited to the 21st century.

The Government of Canada today released the most recent modelling for the pandemic today. Some of you might find this interesting, so I am adding a link below. For comparative purposes the population of the US is 8.5X larger than Canada's currently.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... ocument/p2

Stay Safe, Stay Healthy
 
Peter & Judy-Thanks for weighing in from Canada. And thanks for reminding us that we are indeed "all in the same boat". All the best to our neighbors up north.
 
Enjoyed your post Peter. Attached is an interesting article that I believe summarizes our situation in the US. Makes one wonder if we have turned into a bunch of sheep. I spent over 40 years in a fairly high risk occupation so it really struck a chord with me. I’m planning to live life. Killed a nice Tom turkey with a friend this morning and headed to the lake fishing with a couple buddies tomorrow. Ken

https://fee.org/articles/no-policy-can- ... rce=zapier
 
kennharriet":xw3dbstm said:
... https://fee.org/articles/no-policy-can- ... rce=zapier
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Can't save everyone from everything. Most people would object loudly if you tried.

And even if you could, the planet probably couldn't support all the extra people. Maybe we need treat Earth like any large venue and have an occupancy limit and a Fire Marshall. Once the limit is reached, one person has to leave before another person comes in.
 
Gene&Mary":n8o01nu3 said:
We all have biases. The writers of the article above and the organization they represent definitely has theirs.
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Looking for biases is a favorite of mine. I used to love watching the commentator Charles Krauthammer. He generally started out by building a straw man with a statement like "They want to insure that all welfare recipients eat steak every night." Those who shared his bias waited for his well reasoned refutation without even examining the premise. He would spend the next several minutes showing how wrong "they" are, despite the fact that "they" don't exist. What was fascinating was the number of times the straw man won the argument or at least reached a draw. He didn't seem to care as apparently just the way that he stated his premise was enough to get viewers agreeing with him.

My new favorite is a retired "judge" who gives legal opinions on one of the news show. A judge starts out as an attorney. When they retire, they return to being an attorney. An attorney advocates for a client. The bad public reputation of attorneys is usually because they are willing to present crazy arguments and novel theories on behalf of their client. If it isn't an outright lie (and that is sometimes difficult to assess), then the attorney presents it in the most persuasive light using their most authoritative voice. "I say, it is absolutely unconstitutional to blah, blah, blah."

So who is now this retired judge's client? It isn't very difficult to figure it out given the arguments that he makes on TV. There is a Code of Judicial Conduct which precludes a judge from publically opining on issues that may come before them. Obviously this "judge" doesn't intend to ever be a real judge again and is probably making more money advocating for his new client. The client gets viewership and advertising revenue, so everybody is happy.

We all have a bias as to which is more important, public health or personal wealth and it isn't an either or proposition. There is no doubt that Governor Inslee's shut down saved lives. It can be argued that the lives saved were not worth the damage to the economy, and we can then fall into claiming some of the deaths were not "real" deaths or that the damage to the economy was not "real" damage. We will never get to an apples to apples analysis since most of us probably believe that death is permanent and a recession isn't.

It is also likely premature to undertake an analysis of the damage right now. We are up against an invisible boogie man that we don't even understand completely.

Some are weighing the economy/public health impact based on the quick development of a vaccine. Instances where household pets are carriers of the virus might change the balance of the scale. Does your pet also need a vaccine? Herd immunity has worked in the past for some diseases and not for others. How do we know Covid-19 is one that responds to herd immunity? We are not even through identifying all the various ways that it kills. Finally, there are instances where a proven vaccination doesn't work for some asymptomatic carriers (as was the case with Typhoid Mary). What percentage of the population will that be? If you survived your first bout with Covid, what about your third or fifth?

Well on that happy note, I'll leave the unknown and unknowable elements of the economic recovery for a later date.

Today I am finishing my new cockpit curtains! $450 in material. All PVC (no moldy Sunbrella). All Dot twist fasteners (no moldy zippers). I snuck down the boat yesterday for a dry fit. I'll make a few changes today and be ready for whenever boating opens. I hope that they are Covid proof.
 
Gene&Mary":254mw48d said:
We all have biases. The writers of the article above and the organization they represent definitely has theirs. Not one I subscribe to. We're not talking about just one life here.

Here's an article that talks about the biases that their organization represents.

https://publicintegrity.org/politics/ko ... tarianism/
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The article quoted "No Policy Can Save Lives; It Can Only Trade Lives" was a direct quote from "Coronavirus shutdowns may be shortsighted" | Opinion
Updated: April 20, 2020 - 9:00 AM" from the Philadelphia Inquirer. The Philadelphia Inquirer is ranked as a "Left Center" publication....

No you are talking about a lot of lives--but put that in prospect of the economic damage, poverty, suicides etc...Maybe there is some merit to the article....

One cannot have tunnel vision.

Some states actually kept a lot of the businesses open. Here in Pensacola, we seem to have more than many other places, and open air dining seems to be on the palate shortly. The low income jobs need to open up--BUT, with the $600 a month "equity" payment, these minimum wage people are gong to stay un-emplyed, because they will make more money. The businesses will fire them, for not returning to work....then who won?

It is vary complex issue. I hope the opening experiments work. NO ONE KNOWS who or what is / was the correct path. Or maybe the Communist Chinese do? :amgry
 
Apparently shutting down the economy is "worth it" here in WA, as our governor has just extended our shutdown indefinitely. He's now sniping at the State of Georgia rather than The Donald in his press conferences: super helpful Jay! Still no real plan for re-opening, save for a promise to have one "by Friday".

I suppose those who are able to work from home, or receive unemployment benefits in excess of their normal working wages, or who fall into the high risk categories, are in favor of continued shutdown for as long as possible. (They don't appear to have the same elevated level of safety concern for grocery and warehouse/delivery workers, or other service providers however).

Curiously, I see lots of folks driving alone in their cars, or walking all alone outdoors, or even bicycling, wearing masks, mostly of cloth. There has clearly been a lack of public education re: how droplet/airborne viruses spread, and about basic infection control principles. Are these the same folks who insist our COVID response needs to include extended quarantine time?

Just saw a note buried in the news about testing: The US has now administered more total tests than any other country, and more tests per capita than South Korea, an acknowledged world leader in COVID response. And yet, some "experts" feel we need to do significantly more testing prior to opening up the economy in any meaningful way??? (Article from /Business Insider today)

I sure hope our state doesn't become a "shutdown forever" experiment, guided primarily by doing the opposite of whatever the Trump admin. would have us do. If that's the case, we all lose. What's more, we'll be setting ourselves up for one hell of a rebound of infection.

Here's hoping for a scientific, thoughtful, educated, and effective return to increased economic, spiritual, educational, and social activity in WA state, and our country as a whole. I hope to be (legally) boating this weekend.
 
Ken, we’re thinking about the same. No hunkering down today or really any day, just can’t visit Grandkids in the Denver area. JoLee & I got up early to drive the 140 miles to 90 mile long Flaming Gorge Reservoir. We haven’t been there in the CD22 since 2005. Cruised 60 miles & then back home tonight. With ice still on our other favorite Wyoming lakes & Lake Powell still closed it made for a fine day on the water & a beautiful drive to & from. Not many other boats on the water or at the launch. Wyoming is still one of the few places where all can still work with most also doing a fair job of social distancing. Times like these sure make me glad we took the risk of moving here from Northern California. That was 39 years ago and in early winter into a one room log cabin with three young boys aged 3, 6 & 9.

Hoping Lake Powell opens back up soon along with Yellowstone & the Canadian border.

Jay
 
Jay, glad you are also getting outside. Me and some friends gave our wives a break yesterday and did some bass fishing on Dwhorshak Reservoir. It has boat launches and campgrounds operated by Corp of Engineers and State Parks. The camp grounds are still closed but tentative plans to open up May 15. Most of the boat launches never closed. Idaho Power announced plans to open some boat launches on Snake River dams May 1 and campgrounds on May 15. We are in the early stages of planning a pack trip into the Selway Bitteroot Wilderness in late May with the mules. We were fortunate to be able to visit grandsons in southeast ID before people’s fears were heightened.

Our son and his crew are assigned out of state in the southwest to staff a helicopter for fire standby, so they do not have the option to stay home. It is not practical for them to practice social distancing in an aircraft or ground transportation or masks but they take what precautions they can.

Just reading the latest stats on covid 19 related deaths in ID. 38 over 80 yrs, 12 in 70’s, 8 in 60’s, 2 in 50’s for a total of 60. Many of these were in end of life nursing home facilities. Each day more information seems to surface how many really died of other causes, but may have also had corona virus symptoms, but get counted as corona virus deaths. Any deaths are too many, but that is true of any fate.

We also left northern CA, 41 yrs ago with no regrets. Hope everyone has a great spring, Take care, Ken
 
Hoping Lake Powell opens back up soon along with Yellowstone & the Canadian border.
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Just a bit more information on opening the Canadian Border soon. Currently the border is closed until at least May 20. But there is a strong likelihood that it will remain closed for a longer period of time and not opened to general travel and tourism until at least July. Our National and Provincial Parks are closed until June and likely will not open until July at the earliest. When the border reopens it likely will only open in stages and for essential travel only. Crossing into Vancouver for lunch or going fishing in Alberta may not qualify as essential travel, at least not at first. The border currently is not closed to essential travel and trucks are crossing the border with food products and minerals, and manufactured goods. Health care workers are considered essential and every day over 1000 Canadian nurses are crossing into Michigan to work in US hospitals. Much of the initial spread in Canada came across the border. Canadians going into Washington state to fill the car with gas and Americans coming north to ski. Snowbirds coming home from Florida. This type of travel is likely the last to be allowed north.

Covid-19 in Canada has its hotspots and here in Alberta we don't expect to peak before mid to late May. There is talk here about plans to begin reopening the local economy, but we don't expect much to happen for at least a month or more. Opening up internationally will be slower. Currently our biggest risk of additional exposure is the US. With air traffic all but stopped, the threat from Asia and Europe is minimal. The US currently has many more cases per capita and the US death rate from Covid-19 is 2.5X higher in the US than it is in Canada. I don't think there is much mood in the Canadian Government or the Canadian population to open our borders any time soon. Trump would like to have the borders open now, but most of us Canuks don't agree with his ideas or plans.

It's not that we don't want Americans to come north, our tourism sector is decimated and could dearly use a few greenbacks, but health before money is the order for the day. Our hospitals are still under capacity and the government is providing good financial care for most individuals and businesses at this time. With Universal health care all Canadians have health coverage, so no worries about treatment for any of us. I personally had a US vacation planned for this fall, but that will have to be delayed. I am not willing to risk going outside Canada for the time being, at least until I have been vaccinated and this pandemic is under control. Also I am not sure if I would be get travel medical insurance at this time or in the near future. There are lots of great things I can do closer to home, I just have to dress warmer for part of the time.
 
Washington passed its peak deaths just 24 days ago, that was 42. It is now down to 10 a day or fewer. I think any reasonable assessment would not say we are being too slow in re-opening. The governor will announce tomorrow a continuation of at home social distancing along with some easements for getting back to work. Fishing, hunting, and park parking lots will reopen. I will report of this tomorrow. The UW site suggests it will be June 2 before we can relax those restrictions in any major way. Some citizens in our state would rather choose death, likely for others rather than themselves. Fortunately they are not making the decisions. We and other states continue to suffer with far few tests available than right-leaning think tank experts say we need to move to phase 2. The federal government has failed miserably in ramping of testing and protective gear. Sad.
 
RobLL":1tbtory1 said:
...The federal government has failed miserably in ramping of testing and protective gear. Sad.
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If the leader of the federal government doesn't think there is a problem, why would he have anyone do anything about it.
 
Rob:

About the only thing I agree with in your post is the last word. Sad. Statements such as: "Some citizens would rather choose death..." go beyond conversational hyperbole. They actually demonstrate a deficit of critical thinking on your part. An unthinking right-wing equivalent to your unthinking left-wing remark might be: "those who wish to continue the shutdown want to destroy the economy to assure Trump doesn't get re-elected". Doesn't go down quite as smooth, does it??

I'm a health care worker at UWMC, and sometimes work with Covid patients, so I have some ACTUAL experience: in this epidemic, in our local hospitals' ability to respond to it, and in disease transmission/infection control in general. Trust me when I say that not all in favor of a controlled re-opening are in favor of "death to others" as you indicate. True, the situation was scary initially, remains burdensome, and our Governor was quite correct IMO to close things down. But have you noticed we rapidly achieved the goal of shutdown: to keep our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed? Right now we are running very far below capacity, and it is absolutely not the disaster some would have you believe.

Remember: the goal was never to stay shut down until zero risk of Covid infection existed. How on earth would our City and State pay for education, health care, housing assistance, infrastructure, etc. with plummeting tax revenue + exploding costs? Just today I heard (KOMO radio) of a national study which indicated Seattle is the US city hardest hit by unemployment, and Boeing just announced at least 15K new layoffs. If you have a plan to maintain shutdown for several more months while avoiding long-term fiscal catastrophe, please do share it.

Your remarks about the federal gov't failing to ramp up testing and PPE production also seem to be at odds with the facts. May I suggest a little research in addition to your daily dose of CNN? The US now leads the world in overall testing, and ranks high in testing per capita. (More would of course be better). Maintaining adequate PPE stock for a disaster is a State/local responsibility. We have mandatory education in this regard every year, but at UWMC we were running short of PPE within the first week: not sure how that's Trump's fault? I get that it's comfortable to take shots at Trump (admittedly a buffoon), but at some point we may need to do as my mother, who shattered many glass ceilings, always says: "forget about the problem, work the solution"

Over and out.
 
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