I am confused - not judging but confused none the less

[bobjarrard]

Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com

 

[ssobol]

Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com

Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").

 

[tsturm]

Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com

Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").

You are both 100% right on the money. :thup

 

[rogerbum]

Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com

Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").

I don't think it's that simple. I think that in general most people are unable to effectively do cost/risk/benefit analyses. E.g. people frequently underestimate risk about things that they are familiar with (driving a car, fire etc) and overestimate risk for things that are unfamiliar or less familiar (radiation, product ingredients that they cannot pronounce, air flight etc). Combine a poor estimate of risk with little understanding of the costs of a bad outcome and it becomes impossible to do a sensible analysis of whether proactive actions are merited.

 

[SnowTexan]

I know the news likes to use footage of large ranch houses burning and interview people as they are trying to relocate cattle or fleeing burning neighborhoods of large and expensive homes, but many of the people displaced locally probably don’t own their homes. They certainly cant swing 1000$ a month in fire prevention. I spoke with a man a week ago who makes 16$ an hour and spends 12$ on childcare. He is not a 2nd home owner obviously, but is doing pretty well for his circumstance and is actually buying his home. In Bridgeport Many of the people displaced are migrant farm workers, seasonal renters, and retirees of limited means. Just my opinion, but, the greatest fire prevention some communities could do would be to patrol the woods and gather every jackwagon with a campfire, dragging trailer chain, truck parked in tall dry grass, target shooting into dry duff, or tossing a cigarette out the window and send them back to whatever village of idiots they came from. Thats the nicest way I can say it.

Bob your offer is a great one, and your approach no doubt applicable to many. It is certainly hard to be sympathetic to People who can easily prevent disaster and choose not to. I am similarly frustrated by new Construction in Texas and Oklahoma that does not incorporate tornado shelters into the building design, people who go to beach parties in pandemics, cable news, gasoline safety can lids that spill all over the damn place, people who cook without garlic or peppers, decaf coffee, new country music...i mean the list is endless.

“I am a passenger. And I ride and i ride.”

 

[Hunkydory]

Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com

Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").

I don't think it's that simple. I think that in general most people are unable to effectively do cost/risk/benefit analyses. E.g. people frequently underestimate risk about things that they are familiar with (driving a car, fire etc) and overestimate risk for things that are unfamiliar or less familiar (radiation, product ingredients that they cannot pronounce, air flight etc). Combine a poor estimate of risk with little understanding of the costs of a bad outcome and it becomes impossible to do a sensible analysis of whether proactive actions are merited.

It sure hasn’t been that simple for me. I’ve been a risk taker all my life, but usually only after careful analysis of the cost vs benefit, as Roger so rightly stated. Sometimes , if you’re prone to this kind of life, the analysis can only come after the risk of doing, due to the unknowns & hopefully you learn from it. If not “Darwinism” will likely sort out the ones that don’t.

Jay

 

[ssobol]

... If not “Darwinism” will likely sort out the ones that don’t.

Jay

The problem with your statement is the modern life has pretty much limited the effectiveness of “Darwinism”. This has not improved the gene pool.

 

[Hunkydory]

... If not “Darwinism” will likely sort out the ones that don’t.

Jay

The problem with your statement is the modern life has pretty much limited the effectiveness of “Darwinism”. This has not improved the gene pool.

True, the push button to be rescued has turned loose a lot more of the clueless with consequences negated. It seems many of today’s technology advances have a dark side.

 

[smckean (Tosca)]

......and all this imprudence raises the insurance rates for all of us. Boating is probably the worst example of this.

 

[Foggy]

Want a great insight into why you cannot understand some people?

Look up "The Dunning-Kruger Effect" (David Dunning) - about ignorance on a
particular matter, how prevalent it is, how invisible it is to those who have it;
being ignorant of their own ignorance.

It helps explain why some get absolutely furious about matters they really know
nothing about and try like hell to convince others they are 'right'.

Remarkable.

It's so easy instead to say, "I don't know".

Aye.

 

[ssobol]

In other words, stupid people are to stupid to know that they are stupid.

 

[starcrafttom]

Really quick as a pass native of the California foothill and mt I can tell you that a lot of what you are asking for is not PERMITTED any longer, There was a time ( up until the 90) that you as a home owner and PG and E could cut anything they wanted away from your property. All brush trees and undergrowth. You could even cut bruch back so many yards from your property on public land. Subdivisions all had fire breaks around them. The forest service cut fire break and maintained logging road? forest service roads thru out the Mountains. All that stopped or was cut back in the 90s to the present. The forest service ran and promoted cutting falling timber and under brush, allowed far more grazing on public land in the high mountains for cattle which keep under brush down. What we have a a complete failure of forest management. On top of that or because of it people that live there are being charged " fire protection fees" that are thousands a year. A friend of susans and mine almost lost there house not because of fire but because of fees. They were left the house by their parents years ago and owe nothing on it. which is good because they are not even middle class. Got hi with a 10k fee a few years ago. They whole county did. They did not live in the forest they live just out side town in grass land and oak trees. Just a complete mismanagement that goes back 30 years . just my 2 cents from living there.

 

[thataway]

How appropriate: I am currently doing risk management. We have a hurricane (Sally) which will hit within 80 miles of us--maybe closer. Wind 100k potentially. We are under "voluntary" evacuation. So do we evacuate or not?

Right now, we have weighed the plus and minus--and decided to sit. The C Dory 25 may get water under it on the trailer--so it is tied to trees, just in case....The truck, car and RV are up on the same level the house is--about 10' above Mean high water. So we gamble that the water will not come up more than 10'.

We have done a lot of this in our sailing adventures. We could not obtain insurance for the size of boat, with only two people crewing, and going the places we wanted to go. But we went--again weighing the risks....

I also grew up in the foothills of S. Calif. The house and a sprinkler system on the slate roof. The brush was cut back--but most of the hill was steep and could not be completely cleared. My parents lived there for 25 years--about 3 years before they retired a fire involved the hill behind the house. I was in a position to be able to talk to the firefighters who were at the house holding the line...The house was saved. My mother had less than 30 minutes to gather what she could and evacuate.

Agree with Tom about forrest management. At least Floridia has a very effective program of controlled burns.

 

[robhwa]

Really quick as a pass native of the California foothill and mt I can tell you that a lot of what you are asking for is not PERMITTED any longer, There was a time ( up until the 90) that you as a home owner and PG and E could cut anything they wanted away from your property. All brush trees and undergrowth. You could even cut bruch back so many yards from your property on public land. Subdivisions all had fire breaks around them. The forest service cut fire break and maintained logging road? forest service roads thru out the Mountains. All that stopped or was cut back in the 90s to the present. The forest service ran and promoted cutting falling timber and under brush, allowed far more grazing on public land in the high mountains for cattle which keep under brush down. What we have a a complete failure of forest management. On top of that or because of it people that live there are being charged " fire protection fees" that are thousands a year. A friend of susans and mine almost lost there house not because of fire but because of fees. They were left the house by their parents years ago and owe nothing on it. which is good because they are not even middle class. Got hi with a 10k fee a few years ago. They whole county did. They did not live in the forest they live just out side town in grass land and oak trees. Just a complete mismanagement that goes back 30 years . just my 2 cents from living there.

You are completely right. In the 30+ years I taught forestry at U Washington I watched as Federal, and State (at least under Jennifer Belcher) forest land management went from professionals to lawsuits in the courts. Part of the problem is in Washington we elect our land commissioner, most Washington citizens think trees shouldn't be cut, and vote that way. I started teaching about 20 years ago that the actual management of USFS land, though not on purpose, would build fuel to produce catastrophic wildfire in the future that couldn't be controlled. I got that opinion from fire scientists. I can't remember a single nonpolitical forestry professional disagreeing. That has certainly become the case, as logging and thinning pretty much stopped on Federal land, but fires continued to be put out when possible. Fuel has now built up to the point that it is often impossible to control. Climate change has had an impact, but is not the main cause of these fires as Jay Inslee states. Neither is bad forest management the only cause, but without the fuel, the fires couldn't be this severe. I thinned and sometimes pruned my own tree farm in Okanogan County for many years, but I can't sell my timber since all of the mills have shut down nearby due to lack of federal timber. I have now mostly given up, since the adjacent USFS land has become a tinderbox, and there is no way that my own land would survive the fire that will produce approaching it. I also decided not to build a vacation home on that land, as I feel it could be destroyed in the near future.

 

[bobjarrard]

Thanks all of you for your taking time to give some thought and input. I lived in Bradenton, Florida and my girlfriend's parents had a jon boat tied to the back porch (sitting on the grass). You guessed it, they had several times used the boat to get from the elevated house to the nearest dry land.
So I am going to up the ante on helping. If you live in a fire zone, I will bring you a shuffle hoe (HulaHoe - the best!), a round nose shovel, a grubbing adze, and a pitch fork - to keep. Now here is the hard part. You buy the gloves and agree to work 8 hours a day or more clearing with me. Though I am 73 that you will quit before I do and I would rather work dawn to dusk to get the job done. If we cannot get a burn permit, we have to haul to the dump or bury the debris. All the junk goes to the trash, the propane and gas cans to a dry stacked cinder block enclosure, and a 275 gallon IBC tote for fire water is less than $80. If you don't have a bucket or two, I will bring you some. No better bilge pump/fire fighting device than a scared man with a bucket. Need some $$$$?? Cancel the Sat/cable TV, the expensive phone/data plans, no eating out, and find out who your friends really are, if they will not run a shovel for a day or two, they are not your friends or mine.
Same Old Bob at bobjarrard@gmail.com
PS: My dad used to say "Even us poor folk can afford to have good manners." which I have changed to "Do what you can with what you have to help others and yourself."!!!

 

[starcrafttom]

Bob the problem you are not seeing is that in a lot of places doing any clearing of brush and removal of trees on your own land could end up with you in jail, paying big fines or getting sued by your own government. There are so many crazy laws on the books that do not allow you to manage your own land or make it financially un feasible. One example. California passed a law that requires you to pay a tax of the timber you sell based on their "price" not the price you got at the mill. So you cut some trees and sell them at the mill for 100k. State comes along and says "hold on that is 500K worth of timber" so you end up paying almost if not more in tax then you got at the mill. They did this in the 90s once they cut harvest on forest land and the cutters and mills started looking for more sellers. All those 5 to 50 acres lots in the hills. cost more to cut small patches then big ones so they can not pay as much for the wood. state wanted to stop this so new law. Just one of the thousands of bs rules and regulations that have lead to a mismanaged forest over the last 30 plus years.

but all of this is a slide of hand if you are worried about the planet. Instead of passing laws and regulation that got rid of some of the bad forest practices of the early 1900s western states passed laws that destroyed the timber industry and the families that depended on it, which is a lot of people and towns throughout the west. But today american consumes more wood then every before and most if not all of it comes from Canada. out of site out of mine. But instead of transporting wood locally we are burning untold amount of diesel transporting the wood from out of country and at a huge job lost. On top of that all the C2o that is going into the atmosphere from these big unnatural avoidable fires. We as a country and the planet as a whole would be far better off if we used new methods from the timber industry and real science to bring back our timber industry right here in the USA. but what do I know I only predicted these fires 30 years ago.. , as did every one that has lived in timber country.

 

[smckean (Tosca)]

In other words, stupid people are to stupid to know that they are stupid.

No, that's not what Foggy's statement says. His statement uses the word "ignorance", not the word "stupid". These two words do not mean the same thing. For example, the statement with the word "ignorance" is something I agree with; the statement using the word "stupid" is something I do not agree with.

According to the Webster dictionary:

• ignorance = "the state or fact of being ignorant: lack of knowledge, education, or awareness"
  stupid = "slow of mind"

Education and curiosity can solve the one, but not the other.

Those are night and day 2 different things. What makes me sad is how this country in recent years has divided itself such that each side rallies around its own set of "facts".....alternative facts, if you will. The future looks dim if we all don't start looking at true facts first, and then forming our opinion; rather than the far too prevalent practice these days of having our opinion first, and then defining the facts in a way that supports that opinion.

P.S. Frankly, this thread is full of what I'm talking about.

 

[flagold]

Bob the problem you are not seeing is that in a lot of places doing any clearing of brush and removal of trees on your own land could end up with you in jail, paying big fines or getting sued by your own government. There are so many crazy laws on the books that do not allow you to manage your own land or make it financially un feasible. One example. California passed a law that requires you to pay a tax of the timber you sell based on their "price" not the price you got at the mill. So you cut some trees and sell them at the mill for 100k. State comes along and says "hold on that is 500K worth of timber" so you end up paying almost if not more in tax then you got at the mill. They did this in the 90s once they cut harvest on forest land and the cutters and mills started looking for more sellers. All those 5 to 50 acres lots in the hills. cost more to cut small patches then big ones so they can not pay as much for the wood. state wanted to stop this so new law. Just one of the thousands of bs rules and regulations that have lead to a mismanaged forest over the last 30 plus years.

but all of this is a slide of hand if you are worried about the planet. Instead of passing laws and regulation that got rid of some of the bad forest practices of the early 1900s western states passed laws that destroyed the timber industry and the families that depended on it, which is a lot of people and towns throughout the west. But today american consumes more wood then every before and most if not all of it comes from Canada. out of site out of mine. But instead of transporting wood locally we are burning untold amount of diesel transporting the wood from out of country and at a huge job lost. On top of that all the C2o that is going into the atmosphere from these big unnatural avoidable fires. We as a country and the planet as a whole would be far better off if we used new methods from the timber industry and real science to bring back our timber industry right here in the USA. but what do I know I only predicted these fires 30 years ago.. , as did every one that has lived in timber country.

What you're saying is correct and heartbreaking to those of us that lived it. I had my mining claims smack in the middle of all this. 30 years ago we got the first inkling of "roadless" initiatives in the forest - then entire swaths were closed off - so fuel was building for years - then we get massive fires and what's to blame: the weather has changed . . . OK so the weather changed (I'll bite). Even if the weather changed, not thinning the forest (logging) or cutting roads (fire breaks) will still result in massive fires that cannot be contained. Now you have pollution, and complete waste of a resource. How was that smart?

Edited to say: this isn't directed at anyone personally. Just needed to vent after reading Tom's post and having lived it. Such utter foolishness just cannot be ignored when so many are now dead and destroyed.

 

[Hunkydory]

As another one who has lived & worked through this, Tom you are right on. Where the largest fire in present California history is now raging, as a 18 years old, 54 years ago, I worked as a choker setter & on log landings. Three years later after service in the Army, I drove a logging truck in this area followed by working from laborer to foreman in a forest products particleboard plant, then in Colorado to Plant Manager in timber industry related waferwood plants. Logging for the most part was stopped roughly 30 years ago with plenty of timber still available to be logged on a stable basis, meaning no more timber logged then grown back to replace yearly. Now all that resource is going up in flames & I think, the still logging Canadians are smiling at their good fortune & lack of competition along with the large US forest products companies like Georgia Pacific & Weyerhäuser, who grow their own trees & now don’t have to compete with the timber sales from the US National Forest lands. And the Waferboard plants where I worked in Colorado were also shut down by the radical environmentalists continued appeal of forest service sales until no resource was left. Prior to the waferwood plants, the aspen trees had been managed by the forest service in a slash & burn policy to sustain their re growth in competing with conifer trees. Without fire or logging the aspen tree is slowly pushed back by the conifer tree types. Now it’s again pay for the slash & burn or suffer uncontrolled wildfires. The tourists & residents like the beautiful aspen fall color displays, but not so much the blackened forest from the wildfires.

 

[SnowTexan]

Thanks all of you for your taking time to give some thought and input. I lived in Bradenton, Florida and my girlfriend's parents had a jon boat tied to the back porch (sitting on the grass). You guessed it, they had several times used the boat to get from the elevated house to the nearest dry land.
So I am going to up the ante on helping. If you live in a fire zone, I will bring you a shuffle hoe (HulaHoe - the best!), a round nose shovel, a grubbing adze, and a pitch fork - to keep. Now here is the hard part. You buy the gloves and agree to work 8 hours a day or more clearing with me. Though I am 73 that you will quit before I do and I would rather work dawn to dusk to get the job done. If we cannot get a burn permit, we have to haul to the dump or bury the debris. All the junk goes to the trash, the propane and gas cans to a dry stacked cinder block enclosure, and a 275 gallon IBC tote for fire water is less than $80. If you don't have a bucket or two, I will bring you some. No better bilge pump/fire fighting device than a scared man with a bucket. Need some $$$$?? Cancel the Sat/cable TV, the expensive phone/data plans, no eating out, and find out who your friends really are, if they will not run a shovel for a day or two, they are not your friends or mine.
Same Old Bob at bobjarrard@gmail.com
PS: My dad used to say "Even us poor folk can afford to have good manners." which I have changed to "Do what you can with what you have to help others and yourself."!!!

A shovel for a day or two and a bucket? We have thousands of gallons of water above ground. Neighbors have handlines with pumps that could blow a hole through a c dory and shoot water into the next county. These are not campfires creeping through the damp Florida undergrowth, they are raging infernos that consume entire Mountainsides in minutes. The Omak fires last week were consuming land at 60mph. You cant fight that with a bucket, you’ll die of carbon monoxide and other chemical asphyxiation before you even see a flame. Sometimes there are no boot straps, just the natural world coming to overpower you. Best get out of its way.