Geological Survey report - Climate change affects on coasts

[El and Bill]

This recent USGS scientific report may be of interest to those Brats who live or cruise our nation's coasts. Important sea level, storm and erosion changes are affecting and will continue impacting residents and boaters.

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.as ... RnAHx3AeYQ

 

[Lipidman]

Very frightening stuff. Thanks for posting it. I can only hope we have the political will to act in appropriate ways and quickly.

 

[Barry Rietz]

Several university researchers have been down on the "ice" (Antarctica) this summer doing "core drilling" to depths of 30 meters or more. Samples have recently arrived here at Canterbury (South Island New Zealand) and the assessment is not good! Examination suggests there is evidence of excessive concentrations of "tell-tale elements" in shallow samples from the past 50 years compared to deeper samples from 100 years or earlier!

 

[Levitation]

The Glaciers started melting 15,000 years ago.
They continue to melt to this day.

 

[Will-C]

I would think this might mean to suggest moving to higher ground would not be a bad idea. This might be part of a scam to sell more mountain property. I have been waiting for water front property prices to drop. Maybe this report will help make that happen. Insurance prices might make getting a morgage difficult in coastal areas. I guess I'll have to pay cash. I wonder what Al Gore's latest position on this might be?
No foul here just making light of a serious situation. Having a boat might finally be a plus.
D.D.

 

[rogerbum]

The Glaciers started melting 15,000 years ago.
They continue to melt to this day.

Actually, during that time frame there have been periods of both increase and decrease in glacier volume. What's different over the past few 100 years and in particular the last few decades is that the RATE of change in ice pack is MUCH higher than anything observed or inferred from geological evidence. Also, there are several other measured or inferred variables that are changing at an unprecedented rate - global temperature, CO2 levels in the atmosphere, ocean PH - are all changing more rapidly in the past 100 years than in any period of time from which we have measurements or can infer the variable from other data. It's this RATE of change that is a major concern.

Yes, it's true that ocean levels have gone up and down over geologic time scales and the same can be said for CO2 levels and temperature. Yes, it's also true that the range of change in these variables has also previously happened over geologic time. What isn't the case at all however, is that these variables have moved this quickly in any period from which we can infer the rate of change and the difference in RATE of change is not small or subtle. The rates of change over the past decade in many of these variables is 10's - 100x faster than historic rates of change. See for example this article where the scientist studying glaciers states "Things that normally happen in geologic time are happening during the span of a human lifetime". Better yet, read this more detailed report on climate from the National Academy of Sciences. Figure 6 in that report which shows greenhouse gas concentrations is particularly indicative of the rate of change in recent history.

This rate of change is of particular concern since all the plants and animals on the planet will have to adapt to a changing environment more rapidly than ever before. Am I concerned that everything on the planet will die? No, biological systems are very adaptable and many species will survive and even thrive when global temperatures and CO2 levels rise and ocean PH goes down. Am I concerned that life on earth as we currently know it will change? Hell yes. Small changes in ocean PH affect shell fish and there are already impacts on local oyster and mussel farms (some of which are actively increasing the PH in their local water just to keep producing product). Small changes in ocean levels will affect many low lying areas in which humans live and do business. Salmon returns, farming patterns etc. will all change as climate changes. Can we adjust fast enough when we need to? What will be the cost of these adjustments? Will that future cost exceed the current cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions?

 

[thataway]

I have downloaded these reports and will look at them, when I am not using my limited "time" on the MiFi.

In the geological time scale, we have only been making accurate measurements for a very very brief period--maybe equivalent to a second in a man's life time. This does not say that the studies are not valid--, but we are only relying on in-direct data for history--now we can monitor dynamic.

Also--some of the biggest "dangers" are not going to be US, Canada, Western Europe, but some S. America, Africa, Asiaian countries, who do not seem to have the care for the environment or human life that we do. This may be a far greater challenge than our own usage.

So far, the water in the bayou behind my house does not seem to have changed...but I have only been measuring it for 10 years, and the utility which has gauges on it only for 20 years....a microsecond in cosmic time.

 

[rogerbum]

I have downloaded these reports and will look at them, when I am not using my limited "time" on the MiFi.

In the geological time scale, we have only been making accurate measurements for a very very brief period--maybe equivalent to a second in a man's life time. This does not say that the studies are not valid--, but we are only relying on in-direct data for history--now we can monitor dynamic.

Also--some of the biggest "dangers" are not going to be US, Canada, Western Europe, but some S. America, Africa, Asiaian countries, who do not seem to have the care for the environment or human life that we do. This may be a far greater challenge than our own usage.

So far, the water in the bayou behind my house does not seem to have changed...but I have only been measuring it for 10 years, and the utility which has gauges on it only for 20 years....a microsecond in cosmic time.

Bob,
Good points. In regards to "In the geological time scale, we have only been making accurate measurements for a very very brief period--" - that's true and that's why I used the word "infer" (or "inferred") in my post. Temperatures back to about 8 thousand years ago can be inferred from the composition of certain isotopes in tree rings. Very old trees such as the bristle cone pines in CA which live to about 5000 years old + dead wood from such trees are used to estimate temperatures back to 8-9,000 years. The cellulose from dated tree rings is processed to look at the isotopic ratios of oxygen 18/16. The ratio of these two isotopes is related to the average temperature during that time. Ice core data can take us back several 100,000 years. Ice core data is the main source of estimates of CO2 levels and temperatures beyond about 8,000 years ago.

Of particular interest to some might be the levels of CO2 observed in ice cores over about 400,000 years. That data can be most easily found in this wikipedia article. During the past 400,000 years, the CO2 levels inferred from the ice core data fluctuate between 180ppm and 300ppm with the most rapid period of rise corresponding to about 100ppm over a period of about 5000 years - e.g. a rate of 1ppm every 50 years. If you compare the ice core CO2 data to the current CO2 data (figure 6 in the Nat. Academy report), you'll see a change from just under 280ppm to 380ppm in about 100 years with most of that occurring in the last 50 years. That's a 100ppm in 50-100 year or a rate of change that 50- 100x larger than anything that was observed in 400,000 years of data from the ice cores.

Not only that, but the current CO2 levels are rising at 2ppm/year a rate that's 200x what has been observed in the ice core data. AND, the current CO2 levels are about 390ppm, a level that's about 20-25% higher than any level seen in the ice core data.

 

[El and Bill]

Rogerbum - your posts are well-supported by geological research and scientific consensus. I personally conducted research on the effects of global cooling since Ice Age on groundwater storage in Nevada, and have friends conducting paleo climate and sea level change.

And, Thataway Bob, have you had time to search out the scientific evidence for rising sea levels yet? Geologists have gathered good scientific evidence of sea level changes during the past, and especially covering the past million years - gauges showing rise since the 1870's show a dramatic increase, as Rogerbum stated.

Sea level rise is related to many factors, but two well-measured are meltwater from glaciers and ice caps and thermal expansion from warming ocean water.

Lack of maintenance of our nation's waterways and coastal change due to climate warming may well impact the future of coastal cruising. Good to be aware of this possibility - perhaps there are steps we can individually or collectively take to help mitigate the impacts?

 

[C-Nile]

Greenland ice melt decreases salinity and stops the Gulf Stream. Antarctic seasonal ice melt increases salinity and crosses the world in great currents. Pollutants landing on Antarctica increase heat absorption by a factor of two. Global warming is not only the result of CO2 but methane release from agriculture and the warming of tundra. Global dimming the result of pollutants has resulted in a 20 percent diminution of sunlight surface intensity and mitigates the affects of global warming. Greenland glaciers are moving faster toward the sea due to ice melt at the glacier base that serves as a lubricant. Global warming will stop the gulf stream, which will lead to an Ice Age. Global warming will kick in ocean warming leading to a release of tremendous amounts of methane locked in ocean depths, extinguishing most life on the planet.

I have been following the above information for years from disparate sources, and in my opinion, the world is such a complex system, and with many checks and balances, that it is still beyond our ability to estimate our environmental impact and the speed to which any impact would be felt. This is particularly scary to me, as it should be to everyone, because if we don't know answers to these questions, how would we ever know if we went past the point of no return?

With respect to boating, we live in Connecticut, and have made a decision to keep our boat in a boat valet storage facility, which limits our season to five months. If we chose to go to a slip, our season could be up to 7 months, but our boat would be at significant storm risk. Regardless of whether or not one believes in global warming, it is undeniable that we have experienced major changes in our weather over the past twenty years. No one knows this better then property casualty insurers. My feeling, and I am sure others would agree with me, is that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. So our boat is going to remain in the confines of a boat valet storage facility and out of harm's way.

Rich