Hi Nick, Marcia, David, et al,
I had email contact with Tracy last nite a few times re: your situation.
We're located on the Neuse, about 8 mi. downstream from New Bern, and our boat is in Duck Creek Marina, across the river from downtown NB. Water was up there last nite, had hit a high level at about 4PM, was down a few inches when we ckd the boat at 7PM. Our levels may not be quite as high as Oriental, which is downriver about 25 mi. from New Bern. NE winds always create a "wind tide" as the mouth of the Neuse is at the SW corner of Pamlico Sound, and there's probably 75 mi. of open water to the NE.
We monitor a few websites to ck conditions, I'll paste them in here for interested folks. The best for easy info is the Oriental Town Dock site, they have webcams, the one at the Dock now shows Hodges Street, and the dock our 3 boats were at Sun nite, under water.
http://www.towndock.net/
You can surf around that site for fairly up-to-date weather info specifically on Oriental conditions.
the next on is a State of NC data site, info taken from a monitoring stn at marker #9 on the Neuse, which is probably 15mi. from Oriental, but will show water levers every 15 minutes, in the far right column. The actual number, a depth at that point, doesn't help much, but you can see how it has changed, peaking a few times since yesterday, and presently down maybe 3" from the peak.
http://nc.water.usgs.gov/qw/0209265810.txt
A lot of numbers there, but if you can sort things out it might help. Look at the column headings.
For actual wind strength and direction for this part of the Neuse, again it should be close to Oriental's, we watch a private monitoring stn near us. He shows wind speed that has run in the 25-30mph range since yesterday, with gusts well over that, and maybe a bit higher this AM.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNCNEWBE1
He has a webcam showing his dock on the Neuse, under water now.
Of course anyone can use Weather Underground, or whatever your favorite is, and punch in "Oriental, NC" and get their forecast and maybe present conditions.
Hope this will help you folks who are planning to head this way for the gathering. It does look like things will moderate, and wind direction will become more favorable for Sat. festivities, tho' it may shower some.
Nick, Marcia, and David, it was nice meeting you Sun., sorry you got into these weather problems, but glad you got to see Cape Lookout, Beaufort, etc., and stayed safe. Have a good "haul" back to Oriental, and enjoy the better weather that's coming.