El Nino & 2006 / 2007 Winter - Early Spring Cruising

[Pat Anderson]

OK, here is an article on El Nino. For our weather experts - it says it will be drier than average in the PNW - I see NO evidence of that. I look back to the sunny, dry days of 2004, that was often frequently nearly perfect for cruising. The current conditions are very discouraging.

Nov. 9, 2006, 1:59PM
El Nino expected to continue into 2007

© 2006 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The unusual warming of water in the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino is expected to continue into winter, affecting weather in North America, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

The federal Climate Prediction Center said the result could be warmer than normal temperatures over western and northern United States and western and central Canada.

In addition, in a typical El Nino conditions would be wetter than normal in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida and drier than average in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest.

Other El Nino effects include unusually dry weather over most of Malaysia, Indonesia, some of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the tropical North Pacific, northern South America and southeastern Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions over equatorial East Africa, central South America _ including Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil _ and along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru, the agency said.

El Ninos develop every few years when tropical Pacific waters warm, changing wind and weather patterns and affecting air pressure, resulting in climate changes in much of the world.

The condition was named El Nino by South American fishermen, who tended to first notice the change near Christmas time. El Nino is Spanish for little boy, a reference to the baby Jesus.

The latest forecast calls for El Nino to continue into spring, the agency said.

[Sawdust]

Pat,

Measured gusts to 50 knots at Smith Island just a few minutes ago!

Dusty

[ckjackson]

I read an interesting article about two weeks ago in, I think, the Times. It pointed out that no two El Ninos are alike, and the most recent predictions were for a warmer winter in the PNW but a wetter one. However, with reports of snow above 3,000 feet in this latest storm, I don't see the warming.

Just finished a drive through downtown PT. WIth the high tide and storm surge, the floating docks are now level with the street in the boat haven. Gotta love it.

Keith

[SEA3PO]

Tis just another reason you you Northern folks to head south for a visit...
maybe we should do a Gulf cruise?

Joel
SEA3PO

[drjohn71a]

Keith, Do they think things will stay that way during the Christmas - New Years vacation slot??? I was hoping to explore your area then.

John

[JamesTXSD]

[Grumpy]

Jim B,

Love hearing about it but you are giving me cabin fever a bit early in the year. After the longest driest Summer we already have record rain for the month and are getting a wind storm every 2.5 days.
Keep on sending those pictures of sunsets............
Maybe we should have an annual migration of C-brats....

(Nah! it will be fine in a couple of days....)

Merv & Kathy

PZZ132-150000-
/O.CON.KSEW.GL.W.0089.061115T0800Z-061115T1800Z/
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2006...UPDATED




...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. WIND WAVES 2 OR 3 FT.

TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT RISING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT. RAIN DEVELOPING.

WED...S WIND 40 TO 45 KT...SWITCHING TO W WIND 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 7 OR 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. RAIN.

WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 4 TO 6 FT... SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT.

[drjohn71a]

OK... 'need some clarification here. I heard that "La Nina", a period of dryness, alternated years of "El Nino", a period of wetness. If both last year and this year are "El Nino", wet times, what happened to the "La Nina"?

John

[DaveS]

[JamesTXSD]

Greetings Grumpy Merv,

Looking at that forecast, I can certainly understand how that could make a person grumpy! Keep in mind that we have been gone from your area since early September, so I cannot be held responsible for the wrath Mother Nature has been unleashing on you folks.

Migrating? Yeah, those birds are on to something. We did it for years, heading south when the snow would fly; not much fun on the boat when the water gets hard. When Tom and Susan took us out in their 22 last January, we weren't sure what to expect, but even then the boating was spectacular. Of course, the protected cabin of their C-Dory had a lot to do with that.

We did go out for about 4 hours this afternoon. No new photos, but it was a real "Chamber of Commerce" day here today. We took Wild Blue into the Gulf (3-4 foot swells but spaced nicely), back into the turquoise water of the Laguna Madre, and dodged shrimpboats heading out as we were heading up the ship channel. We were home by sunset, and I was washing the salt spray off Wild Blue before meeting the Blonde for a sundowner on the deck that overlooks the boat.

We are supposed to see some bigger winds tomorrow (gusting to 40) as a front comes through in the morning. The weather weasels are calling it a "cold" front, but it will still be in the 70s. It's all perspective, I guess. Only supposed to last a day, though.

Sure hope Mother Nature eases up on you folks. I could not do the days of gray; without some regular sunshine, I'd go stark raving mad (Yeah, I know, some say I'm already there). Hang in there, brighter days have to be ahead... right?

Best wishes,
Jim B.

[Alasgun]

Weather predicting can be frustrating, no mater your geographical location.
I've adopted the following technique and never been disappointed on these maters.
1st. Wait until at least July to predict what kind of winter we JUST HAD, you can't do anything about the upcoming one.
2nd. If you get to your intended cruising location and the weather is too bad, it's a lot of fun to just camp in the boat in a parking lot as well! After all the boats are tall enough that you can spend the whole weekend looking down on your neighbors.
3rd. If your in this boat business you can probably afford it and you must have some semblance of health left so be thankful for that, the weather will change someday! Mike on Huda Thunkit

[drjohn71a]

Mike - I like your outlook! John

[Grumpy]

Up to 54Kts on Smith Island right now and still going up. Been on the generator since 3 am. Couldn't miss my daily dose of C-brat chat so I got a power cord and plugged in the 'puter.

Keeping a watch on the BIG Doglas Firs just South of me..... Have moved boat so that there is at least one house or a garage between it and any potential tree.. Got to keep you prioritites right !! Also makes an amazing emergency shelter.

Going to bundle the dogs up in car and go watch the waves

Merv & Kathy