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I am confused - not judging but confused none the less
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bobjarrard



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:29 pm    Post subject: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com
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ssobol



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:36 am    Post subject: Re: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

bobjarrard wrote:
Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com


Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").
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tsturm



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:26 am    Post subject: Re: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

ssobol wrote:
bobjarrard wrote:
Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com


Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").



You are both 100% right on the money. Thumbs Up
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rogerbum



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:48 am    Post subject: Re: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

ssobol wrote:
bobjarrard wrote:
Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com


Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").


I don't think it's that simple. I think that in general most people are unable to effectively do cost/risk/benefit analyses. E.g. people frequently underestimate risk about things that they are familiar with (driving a car, fire etc) and overestimate risk for things that are unfamiliar or less familiar (radiation, product ingredients that they cannot pronounce, air flight etc). Combine a poor estimate of risk with little understanding of the costs of a bad outcome and it becomes impossible to do a sensible analysis of whether proactive actions are merited.

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SnowTexan



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know the news likes to use footage of large ranch houses burning and interview people as they are trying to relocate cattle or fleeing burning neighborhoods of large and expensive homes, but many of the people displaced locally probably don’t own their homes. They certainly cant swing 1000$ a month in fire prevention. I spoke with a man a week ago who makes 16$ an hour and spends 12$ on childcare. He is not a 2nd home owner obviously, but is doing pretty well for his circumstance and is actually buying his home. In Bridgeport Many of the people displaced are migrant farm workers, seasonal renters, and retirees of limited means. Just my opinion, but, the greatest fire prevention some communities could do would be to patrol the woods and gather every jackwagon with a campfire, dragging trailer chain, truck parked in tall dry grass, target shooting into dry duff, or tossing a cigarette out the window and send them back to whatever village of idiots they came from. Thats the nicest way I can say it.

Bob your offer is a great one, and your approach no doubt applicable to many. It is certainly hard to be sympathetic to People who can easily prevent disaster and choose not to. I am similarly frustrated by new Construction in Texas and Oklahoma that does not incorporate tornado shelters into the building design, people who go to beach parties in pandemics, cable news, gasoline safety can lids that spill all over the damn place, people who cook without garlic or peppers, decaf coffee, new country music...i mean the list is endless.

“I am a passenger. And I ride and i ride.”
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Hunkydory



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:19 am    Post subject: Re: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

rogerbum wrote:
ssobol wrote:
bobjarrard wrote:
Forum Friends, I am confused as I watch the video news every night of the loss of homes and improvements, not a few but entire towns and neighborhoods. We have a second home in a fire danger area and we spend over a $1000 a month on help to fire-safe our eight acres. Every night I see videos of homes with no cleared to mineral soil perimeter, flammable junk everywhere, no roof or eave sprinklers, no private water source, no fireproofing of roofs or walls, and I cannot count how many pieces of rolling stock and vehicles burned because they were not moved to "high ground". If you or one of yours is at risk to loss by fire, earthquake, or flood, give me a call and I will come and give you a free review and plan of action. If you are a C-BRAT, I will camp out at your place for a week or so and get you started on the DIY part and on hiring the work done that is beyond your talent or capability. Insurance? Very few losses are truly covered 100% and you will be digging into your own pocket from the start to the finish. Most of us can finish this one: "An ounce of ________".
Bob Jarrard bobjarrard@gmail.com


Simple, the answer is "I know what can possibly happen, but it won't happen to me."

Most people think this about pretty much anything bad that could happen to them. Kinda hard to get out of bed each morning if you don't think that way. Evolution has programmed us this way. People who spend time preoccupied with what could go wrong are looked upon as oddballs (e.g. "preppers").


I don't think it's that simple. I think that in general most people are unable to effectively do cost/risk/benefit analyses. E.g. people frequently underestimate risk about things that they are familiar with (driving a car, fire etc) and overestimate risk for things that are unfamiliar or less familiar (radiation, product ingredients that they cannot pronounce, air flight etc). Combine a poor estimate of risk with little understanding of the costs of a bad outcome and it becomes impossible to do a sensible analysis of whether proactive actions are merited.


It sure hasn’t been that simple for me. I’ve been a risk taker all my life, but usually only after careful analysis of the cost vs benefit, as Roger so rightly stated. Sometimes , if you’re prone to this kind of life, the analysis can only come after the risk of doing, due to the unknowns & hopefully you learn from it. If not “Darwinism” will likely sort out the ones that don’t.

Jay

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ssobol



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:32 am    Post subject: Re: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

Hunkydory wrote:

... If not “Darwinism” will likely sort out the ones that don’t.

Jay


The problem with your statement is the modern life has pretty much limited the effectiveness of “Darwinism”. This has not improved the gene pool.
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Hunkydory



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:01 pm    Post subject: Re: I am confused - not judging but confused none the less Reply with quote

ssobol wrote:
Hunkydory wrote:

... If not “Darwinism” will likely sort out the ones that don’t.

Jay


The problem with your statement is the modern life has pretty much limited the effectiveness of “Darwinism”. This has not improved the gene pool.




True, the push button to be rescued has turned loose a lot more of the clueless with consequences negated. It seems many of today’s technology advances have a dark side.
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smckean (Tosca)



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

......and all this imprudence raises the insurance rates for all of us. Boating is probably the worst example of this.
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Foggy



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Want a great insight into why you cannot understand some people?

Look up "The Dunning-Kruger Effect" (David Dunning) - about ignorance on a
particular matter, how prevalent it is, how invisible it is to those who have it;
being ignorant of their own ignorance.

It helps explain why some get absolutely furious about matters they really know
nothing about and try like hell to convince others they are 'right'.

Remarkable.

It's so easy instead to say, "I don't know".

Aye.

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ssobol



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In other words, stupid people are to stupid to know that they are stupid.
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starcrafttom



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really quick as a pass native of the California foothill and mt I can tell you that a lot of what you are asking for is not PERMITTED any longer, There was a time ( up until the 90) that you as a home owner and PG and E could cut anything they wanted away from your property. All brush trees and undergrowth. You could even cut bruch back so many yards from your property on public land. Subdivisions all had fire breaks around them. The forest service cut fire break and maintained logging road? forest service roads thru out the Mountains. All that stopped or was cut back in the 90s to the present. The forest service ran and promoted cutting falling timber and under brush, allowed far more grazing on public land in the high mountains for cattle which keep under brush down. What we have a a complete failure of forest management. On top of that or because of it people that live there are being charged " fire protection fees" that are thousands a year. A friend of susans and mine almost lost there house not because of fire but because of fees. They were left the house by their parents years ago and owe nothing on it. which is good because they are not even middle class. Got hi with a 10k fee a few years ago. They whole county did. They did not live in the forest they live just out side town in grass land and oak trees. Just a complete mismanagement that goes back 30 years . just my 2 cents from living there.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How appropriate: I am currently doing risk management. We have a hurricane (Sally) which will hit within 80 miles of us--maybe closer. Wind 100k potentially. We are under "voluntary" evacuation. So do we evacuate or not?

Right now, we have weighed the plus and minus--and decided to sit. The C Dory 25 may get water under it on the trailer--so it is tied to trees, just in case....The truck, car and RV are up on the same level the house is--about 10' above Mean high water. So we gamble that the water will not come up more than 10'.

We have done a lot of this in our sailing adventures. We could not obtain insurance for the size of boat, with only two people crewing, and going the places we wanted to go. But we went--again weighing the risks....

I also grew up in the foothills of S. Calif. The house and a sprinkler system on the slate roof. The brush was cut back--but most of the hill was steep and could not be completely cleared. My parents lived there for 25 years--about 3 years before they retired a fire involved the hill behind the house. I was in a position to be able to talk to the firefighters who were at the house holding the line...The house was saved. My mother had less than 30 minutes to gather what she could and evacuate.

Agree with Tom about forrest management. At least Floridia has a very effective program of controlled burns.

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robhwa



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

starcrafttom wrote:
Really quick as a pass native of the California foothill and mt I can tell you that a lot of what you are asking for is not PERMITTED any longer, There was a time ( up until the 90) that you as a home owner and PG and E could cut anything they wanted away from your property. All brush trees and undergrowth. You could even cut bruch back so many yards from your property on public land. Subdivisions all had fire breaks around them. The forest service cut fire break and maintained logging road? forest service roads thru out the Mountains. All that stopped or was cut back in the 90s to the present. The forest service ran and promoted cutting falling timber and under brush, allowed far more grazing on public land in the high mountains for cattle which keep under brush down. What we have a a complete failure of forest management. On top of that or because of it people that live there are being charged " fire protection fees" that are thousands a year. A friend of susans and mine almost lost there house not because of fire but because of fees. They were left the house by their parents years ago and owe nothing on it. which is good because they are not even middle class. Got hi with a 10k fee a few years ago. They whole county did. They did not live in the forest they live just out side town in grass land and oak trees. Just a complete mismanagement that goes back 30 years . just my 2 cents from living there.

You are completely right. In the 30+ years I taught forestry at U Washington I watched as Federal, and State (at least under Jennifer Belcher) forest land management went from professionals to lawsuits in the courts. Part of the problem is in Washington we elect our land commissioner, most Washington citizens think trees shouldn't be cut, and vote that way. I started teaching about 20 years ago that the actual management of USFS land, though not on purpose, would build fuel to produce catastrophic wildfire in the future that couldn't be controlled. I got that opinion from fire scientists. I can't remember a single nonpolitical forestry professional disagreeing. That has certainly become the case, as logging and thinning pretty much stopped on Federal land, but fires continued to be put out when possible. Fuel has now built up to the point that it is often impossible to control. Climate change has had an impact, but is not the main cause of these fires as Jay Inslee states. Neither is bad forest management the only cause, but without the fuel, the fires couldn't be this severe. I thinned and sometimes pruned my own tree farm in Okanogan County for many years, but I can't sell my timber since all of the mills have shut down nearby due to lack of federal timber. I have now mostly given up, since the adjacent USFS land has become a tinderbox, and there is no way that my own land would survive the fire that will produce approaching it. I also decided not to build a vacation home on that land, as I feel it could be destroyed in the near future.
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bobjarrard



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:24 pm    Post subject: Lot of great though here - thanks and............ Reply with quote

Thanks all of you for your taking time to give some thought and input. I lived in Bradenton, Florida and my girlfriend's parents had a jon boat tied to the back porch (sitting on the grass). You guessed it, they had several times used the boat to get from the elevated house to the nearest dry land.
So I am going to up the ante on helping. If you live in a fire zone, I will bring you a shuffle hoe (HulaHoe - the best!), a round nose shovel, a grubbing adze, and a pitch fork - to keep. Now here is the hard part. You buy the gloves and agree to work 8 hours a day or more clearing with me. Though I am 73 that you will quit before I do and I would rather work dawn to dusk to get the job done. If we cannot get a burn permit, we have to haul to the dump or bury the debris. All the junk goes to the trash, the propane and gas cans to a dry stacked cinder block enclosure, and a 275 gallon IBC tote for fire water is less than $80. If you don't have a bucket or two, I will bring you some. No better bilge pump/fire fighting device than a scared man with a bucket. Need some $$$$?? Cancel the Sat/cable TV, the expensive phone/data plans, no eating out, and find out who your friends really are, if they will not run a shovel for a day or two, they are not your friends or mine.
Same Old Bob at bobjarrard@gmail.com
PS: My dad used to say "Even us poor folk can afford to have good manners." which I have changed to "Do what you can with what you have to help others and yourself."!!!
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