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Hurricane Michael
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BrentB



Joined: 15 Jul 2006
Posts: 4214
City/Region: Greenwood
State or Province: IN
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject: Hurricane Michael Reply with quote

I hope folks in its path are prepared.
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thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 16147
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: thataway
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks as if it will be East of Panama City. I have contacted Marc Grove, and he is prepared at Wefings...several other friends have already evacuated and spider webbed their boats as best they could. Three counties have mandated evacuation zones. We are on the Western edge of Hurricane Watch in Pensacola. Tropical storm force winds expected. We already have about 18" storm surge.


Since this will be a Cat 3 in the gulf, they can change course and intensity at the last minute...so we are taking precautions with boats secured, and a short range Evacuation plan if course changes. Plenty of water and fuel stockpiled--have natural gas whole house generator and full storm shutters, if necessary.

Others such as Ken, I hope are prepared.

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Bob Austin
Thataway
Thataway (Ex Seaweed) 2007 25 C Dory May 2018
Thisaway 2006 22' CDory November 2011 to May 2018
Caracal 18 140 Suzuki 2007 to present
Thataway TomCat 255 150 Suzukis June 2006 thru August 2011
C Pelican; 1992, 22 Cruiser, 2002 thru 2006
Frequent Sea; 2003 C D 25, 2007 thru 2009
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Home port: Pensacola FL
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PaulNBriannaLynn



Joined: 26 Oct 2012
Posts: 558
City/Region: Savannah
State or Province: GA
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 22 Cruiser
Vessel Name: TBD
Photos: Lorelei
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Be safe Bob. I was thinking about you guys. Hoping it isn't as bad and they're just exaggerating like weather forecasters like to do. I just took the c-dory out of the water this morning here, as we'll potentially have tropical storm conditions. It was already getting rough at the docks and I wacked the side of the sling coming in with the starboard side. Just a lot of waves and tide moving right now.
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ken35216



Joined: 12 Mar 2013
Posts: 467
City/Region: Destin, Florida
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2017
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Lady Onyx
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thataway wrote:

Others such as Ken, I hope are prepared.


Thanks Dr Bob. Not much I can do as I live in Birmingham. The boat is in a secured building, on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay, in Niceville at Bluewater High and Dry Marina. Our townhouse was 4 feet under water during Opal in 1995 but no damage since then and I'm hoping none with Michael.

Hope no damage for you! If you need a place to stay in Birmingham I have an extra bedroom and you are more than welcome.

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2017 25 Cruiser 200 Yamaha (2017-present)
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ken35216



Joined: 12 Mar 2013
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City/Region: Destin, Florida
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C-Dory Year: 2017
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Lady Onyx
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very cool site to track windspeeds and waves.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=20.1;-83.7;5&l=wave
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BTDT



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 269
City/Region: Grand Lake Oklahoma
State or Province: OK
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 255 Tomcat
Vessel Name: C- Lark Wine Down
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It appears the gulf coast has a monster on their hands with a Cat 4 and 145 mph catastrophic winds. As of 7:00 am CST it doesn't appear it will weaken and in fact may grow to Cat 5.
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thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Got to watch out for media hype. Seriously this is a very dangerous storm. 4 out of the 16 models I follow show a Cat 4 for more than 12 hours. That is up from only 2 yesterday PM. The majority show it decreasing as it goes inland, but it is still very destructive.

We have had many well wishers contact us. We are fine and continue to stay put, with a nearby evacuation point on higher ground picked out if necessary. The storm appears to be making its curve to the East, which is better for us--but worse for all east of Destin.

We heard of a 65 foot power boat who lost their 14' RIB overboard off a swim platform when crossing Mobile Bay yesterday. So even re-positioning boats does not spare damage. Just this is why most yacht insurance policies require the boats be out of hurricane areas until at least the end of October. We met several on our recent river trip who were going to come down to the gulf coast anyway. I hope they didn't!!!
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BrentB



Joined: 15 Jul 2006
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City/Region: Greenwood
State or Province: IN
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like a lot of rain, storm surge is at low tide might help some, and wide spread power outages


Thanks for the updates
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RobLL



Joined: 05 Aug 2014
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City/Region: Bremerton
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 22 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Bucket List
PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are some well acknowledged inadequacies in issuing storm warnings.

The first is that wind speed is not a good indicator of potential damage. The all over ferocity of a storm also depends upon its size. Sandy was hardly a tropical storm when it hit NYC, but the storm energy was one of the worst.

Speed a storm travels has a variety of effects.

Surge predictions are not always accurate.

Warnings properly need to be based on the worst possible cases, perhaps with the probabilities of it being catastrophic, merely worst, bad, so so, and false alarm.

Repeatedly I have had friends ignore wind warnings because it almost never happens as bad as the warning. If you knew a jetplane would crash 1 out of a hundred flights, hell, even one out of a thousand, most prudent people would never fly. But people regularly ignore wind warnings which have a 30-70% chance of happening.
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ken35216



Joined: 12 Mar 2013
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City/Region: Destin, Florida
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2017
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The big High and Dry marina in Panama City received extensive damage. EXTENSIVE.
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pat.jack



Joined: 01 Aug 2011
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City/Region: Rochester
State or Province: NY
C-Dory Year: 2003
C-Dory Model: 22 Cruiser
Vessel Name: C-renity
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I exchanged brief email messages with Marc Grove yesterday. He was heading out of the area. I have not checked the weather report today, but heading out of this storm's path seems like a wise decision. I hope are able to get to safety, the storm certainly blew up very quickly. Those warm water temps just seem to be fuel for these hurricanes in the Gulf.
Jack
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thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 16147
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: thataway
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No surprise on the dry stack storage damage. They were destroyed in Pensacola during Ivan and I got an almost new Century (with a hole in the bottom) for a good price at the auction. ( Easily repaired--just fell 35 feet!)

I expect extensive damage at Mexico Beach and Apalachicola. We were going to head that way in the boat---not now!

In Pensacola--a little wind and almost zero rain storm surge went down because of low tide at noon--maybe 3 feet at max. Most extensive damage to the East. I fear for many of these inland and the areas with recent heavy rains from Florence! It is not "over" yet for them
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gulfcoast john



Joined: 14 Dec 2012
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City/Region: PENSACOLA
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C-Dory Year: 2010
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Vessel Name: Cat O' Mine
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:09 pm    Post subject: Michael Reply with quote

Eileen and I have had more than our fair share of hurricanes (Michael #14, Katrina #13) and again I am a bit flabbergasted at how much difference 116 miles (in this case) makes (but not so much for a for Sandy or a Katrina).
One hour prior to landfall, we were taking our usual 2 hour power walk on the Trout Point boardwalk on Big Lagoon. You can see it on Google satellite view. The official airport report had winds from the north at 15 and gusts to 25, but felt more like 10mph and gusts to 15-20 to us. No whitecaps on Big Lagoon (unlike the past 4 days, when local conditions caused them). We were in the great green bands seen on radar, but it was just drizzle. Many families with young kids were on the boardwalk watching the distant huge cresting waves pound Johnson Beach just across the ICW.
We are not in an evacuation or surge zone and were perfectly safe. Always comply with local officials advice on evacuation and surge risk. I’m just commenting on the AMAZING difference it can make being just 116 miles (straight line) on the West side of an otherwise DEVASTATING Cat 4 storm with documented 155MPH winds.
Another hats off to Honda, our two 2000iu generators have not ever been started or run since Sept 15, 2015, but as soon as gas got to the carbs, both purred right up. Use only non-ethanol gas with Startron and drain the carbs if you don’t ‘exercise’ them monthly on a load. That gets tiresome when there are no significant storms between 2005 and 2018.
Our best wishes and prayers for those impacted as Michael tears along, esp for Marc Grove and the Wefings family as they recover.
Wefings strong!
John

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dave



Joined: 21 May 2005
Posts: 371
City/Region: Riverview
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C-Dory Year: 2006
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Vessel Name: Cocoon
PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just watched the weather. Hope Marc came through OK.
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Pat Anderson



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 8090
City/Region: Birch Bay, WA
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C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Daydream
Photos: Daydream and Crabby Lou
PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow! A year ago today we were at Bobby's Fish Camp, and a year ago tomorrow, we were at the Alabama River Cutoff. The following day we were in Mobile and the next day we were at Bob and Marie's in Pensacola! By the 20th, we were in Apalachicola enjoying Marc and Anita's hospitality! What a difference a year makes! We hope Bob and Marie and Marc and Anita (and everyone else) make it through this one OK!
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Pat & Patty Anderson, and Baxter! C-Brat # 62!

http://daydreamsloop.blogspot.com
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