The C-Brats Forum Index
HomeForumsMy TopicsCalendarEvent SignupsMemberlistOur C-DorysThe Brat MapPhotos

Help Please! Thoughts on Weather in Gulf over Next Week?
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The C-Brats Forum Index -> Grand Adventures
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
LesR



Joined: 05 May 2010
Posts: 162
City/Region: St. Louis
State or Province: MO
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Intuition
Photos: Intuition
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pat,
I'd be inclined to stay in Demopolis until this particular system passes or no longer appears to be a threat. As you know, there are no nicer places to tie up between Demopolis and Mobile. I also expect Bobby's Fish Camp may get very busy if the storm appears to threaten the Mobile area.

Les
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
starcrafttom



Joined: 07 Nov 2003
Posts: 7878
City/Region: marysville
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 1984
C-Dory Model: 27 Cruiser
Vessel Name: to be decided later
Photos: Susan E
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just in.
Quote:
Tropical depression 16 has formed in the western Caribbean Sea... and is 25 miles SSW of San Andres Island with 35 mph wind and moving NW at 7 mph.
The depression is likely to become #Nate as it approaches the Gulf Coast this weekend. It could become a hurricane before landfall... then weaken quickly as it moves inland.
Savannah is in the cone of possible track. IF we feel any impacts... they would come Sunday into Monday... and could include minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes. Localized flooding rainfall and tropical storm force winds (40 mph+) are also possible.
www.wsav.com/weather

_________________
Thomas J Elliott
http://tomsfishinggear.blogspot.com/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 20778
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: thataway
Photos: Thataway
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Windy.com. because it gives you a choice of two Global models: it uses the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) as the default. This is the model which has proven to be the most accurate over the last 15 years.

The other model used by Windy.com is the( GFS): The Global Forecast System model /This is run by the US national Weather Service. It tends to be not quite historically as accurate as the ECMWF. If you compare the two tracks on Windy.com, you have a spread at landfall of several hundred miles, and a huge difference in intensity,

At a time like this, even the Saturday Forecast does not tell use much about which way the storm is going. Many models have it taking a fairly abrupt turn to the East. Some to the West.

There are also rapidly run models (Such as BAM) which use only segments of the earth's meteorology data, and can be run in a short time and are good for short term forecast, but tend to be less accurate for longer time frames.

The Global models take hours to run, for the World's fastest computers. We don't have a lot of data over vast stretches of Oceans--all of which will affect the local weather in one locality 5 days down the line.

Even a few miles change of the low's path a few days from now will make a large difference in place of landfall. If it goes thru the relatively narrow straits between the Yucatan and Cuba, it will remain over warm water. It it goes over Honduras, and then the Yucatan, it will be disrupted by the land masses.

One generally thinks of hurricanes as wide spread storms--but usually the devastation is limited to a relatively small area if the landfall is perpendicular. if the storm runs parallel or obliquely onto the coast, it can extend for many miles as Irma did. At this time, TS 16 appears as if it will strike perpendicular to the coast line.

Absolutely the safest thing is to stay up river several hundred miles inland.

_________________
Bob Austin
Thataway
Thataway (Ex Seaweed) 2007 25 C Dory May 2018 to Oct. 2021
Thisaway 2006 22' CDory November 2011 to May 2018
Caracal 18 140 Suzuki 2007 to present
Thataway TomCat 255 150 Suzukis June 2006 thru August 2011
C Pelican; 1992, 22 Cruiser, 2002 thru 2006
Frequent Sea; 2003 C D 25, 2007 thru 2009
KA6PKB
Home port: Pensacola FL
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Pat Anderson



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 8551
City/Region: Birch Bay, WA
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Daydream
Photos: Daydream and Crabby Lou
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks all! We are safe here in Demopolis, and this is where we intend to stay until we know how this storm will - or won't - develop over the next few days. This is a nice marina, and very reasonably priced, better safe than sorry!


_________________

DAYDREAM - CD25 Cruiser
CRABBY LOU - CD16 Angler (sold 2020)
Pat & Patty Anderson, C-Brat #62!
http://daydreamsloop.blogspot.com

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
journey on



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3593
City/Region: Valley Centre
State or Province: CA
C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: journey on
Photos: Journey On
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, Bob, here's what I used to make my statements. I still firmly believe that Daydream ought to stay put until the weather changes. The trip's too close to a nice ending.

1. I've been to Florida several times. Spent a summer in Ft Walton Beach launching rockets. Later I passed through Pensacola and cut through the Gulph to Tampa. Beautiful trip, dolphins/porpoises swam with us.

2. The roughest night I've ever spent on a sailboat was in your lovely town of Pensacola. But that was a norther. I was at the outer dock of the Pensacola Yacht Club and I came away with a lot of respect for the way Catalina sailboats are built.

3. For a C-Dory 25 avoiding weather, certainly stay inland, use the ICW and pass through the panhandle.

4. The first time I ever heard of the Florida Panhandle was when I saw this picture. Note the bright orange near you. I then read that the Panhandle has the most lightning strikes in the USA, or the World? Actually, that is what got us to take the Gulph route. Notice the orange and red in Florida.


The average number of thunderstorm days each year throughout the U.S. Courtesy of the National Weather Service.



5. And finally the way I remember the jingle is: "July rarely, September always, November, it's over". Or something like that. If you're saying that climate change has now extended the hurricane season, I believe you; I live on the West Coast, where it's colored blue on the map.

Boris


Last edited by journey on on Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:29 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
B&B Burks



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 122
City/Region: Green Valley
State or Province: AZ
C-Dory Year: 2006
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: C-Pearl
Photos: C-Pearl
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good choice
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 20778
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: thataway
Photos: Thataway
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No Boris, Collier County recently overtook Tampa Bay as Lightning Capital of FL.
Thunder storms are more prevalent and more severe in S. Florida.
The graphic does not really square with the statistics: Average number of days with precipitation in Pensacola is 76 per year. I would say that maybe a little over 50% of the days we have rain, it is accompanied by lightning. The average 66 inches of rain a year, keep our water table up, and the area green.
We like to say there is a reason they choose the location of Pensacola Air Station, and the home port of the Blue Angels. Good weather.

Pensacola Yacht club is well protected from Northers--perhaps the wind was out of the East. PYC is on the North shore--so no fetch. It is open only to the East, or South East.

November30 has always been the "end of hurricane season" officially. Out of the Top 54 cities in the US, Pensacola is 32nd. The top of the "least group". !8 storms since 1871. Again going to the Stats, November has as many hurricanes as July, August Sept (highest) and Oct. are the peak months. But Tropical storms hit every month of the year--the the only two months that hurricane have not formed in the US sector are Feb. and April. This year TS "Arlene" became the second Tropical Storm in April.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
South of Heaven



Joined: 15 Aug 2015
Posts: 1459
City/Region: Sharon
State or Province: MA
Photos: Blue Water
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good luck to all the Gulf Brats. This hurricane season is unrelenting.....
_________________
<><><> Jason <><><>

2005 Silverton 35 Motoryacht (Twin 385 Crusaders) (SOLD 6/20)

2000 Camano 31 Troll (Volvo TAMD41p) (SOLD 2/19)

2007 C Dory 25' Cruiser (200 hp Suzuki, sold 7/17)

2003 C Dory 19' Angler (80 hp Yamaha, sold 7/16)

1995 C Dory 16' Angler (40 hp Yamaha, sold 2/16)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Foggy



Joined: 01 Aug 2013
Posts: 1518
City/Region: Traverse City; Northern Lake Michigan
State or Province: MI
C-Dory Year: 2014
C-Dory Model: 26 Venture
Vessel Name: Boatless in Boating Paradise
Photos: W B Nod
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't figure out why Mother Nature is angry with the US,
especially this year.

Aye.

_________________
"I don't want any cake" - said no one ever.
If someone tells you they don't eat cake, unfriend them. You don't need that kind of negativity in your life.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
journey on



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3593
City/Region: Valley Centre
State or Province: CA
C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: journey on
Photos: Journey On
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mother Nature isn't mad, just carrying on business; could be as usual or changed. But she doesn't care.

It's up to us to cope.

Boris
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Gulfcoastjohn



Joined: 03 Oct 2017
Posts: 78
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2010
C-Dory Model: 255 Tomcat
Vessel Name: CAT 'O MINE
Photos: CAT 'O MINE
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We retired in late July, sold the house of 22 years in Mississippi, and moved to a rental in Pensacola just outside the back gate of the NAS last month.
We've never taken Cat O' Mine out of the water before for a mere tropical storm (defined as constant 35-74 MPH, gusts to 70MPH) until yesterday, but it was mainly for practice and proficiency. It went very well in gusts to 20MPH, and with experience we'll manage more. One 24" scrape due to not putting out fenders for disembarking Eileen.
Humans have been talking about the weather for at least 2000 years, and will continue to do so (hopefully) for another 2000 years.
Thanks for the thoughts and prayers...although our typical vicious summer thunderstorm squalls can deliver 60MPH winds, golf ball size hail and waterspouts that are worse (although often for under 1 hour) than your run-of-the-mill Tropical Storm.
Happy Boating!
The Best Boat is always one you can heave onto a trailer and Boogy!
John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 20778
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: thataway
Photos: Thataway
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We always say "Never be near Jim Cantore during a Hurricane"--well, he is about 12 miles South of us (as the crow flies) on the Gulf in Orange Beach. So far this has been a "non event" for us in West Pensacola. It appears that Perdido Bay may get less surge than Pensacola Bay.

We have seen about 20 knots of breeze, and gusts to 30. Storm surge is a couple of feet; Very little rain. I am sure there will be more as the night wears on, but it appears that some dry cooler air has infused the center of the storm, and as it has made the first landfall is not intensifying. There are many days that we have higher chop on the bay during "normal" conditions.

We hope that these mild conditions are what Pat finds up the way during the next day. The models show the wind decreasing rapidly as it makes landfall. The private service says it will rapidly become a tropical storm, and shortly thereafter a depression, caught up in the advancing cool front.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Pat Anderson



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 8551
City/Region: Birch Bay, WA
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Daydream
Photos: Daydream and Crabby Lou
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is hoping you are right, Bob!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
JamesTXSD



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 7444
City/Region: from island boy to desert dweller
State or Province: AZ
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: "Wild Blue" (sold 9/14)
Photos: Wild Blue
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just watching Jim Cantore - he is confirming what Bob is seeing, with winds 75 G 89 at the first landfall and expecting that to diminish as it makes the second landfall.

Assuming you don't have TV on the boat, Pat. The discussion seems to be more on the potential storm surge right at the coast. Very dry on the west side of the storm (Hurricane warning for New Orleans cancelled); if the storm moves NNE as anticipated, it should put you on the west side of the center of the storm. There is a tornado currently anticipated well NE of your position.

You may be able to sleep, but I would advise taking turns with "anchor watch" (dock watch?) and catch up on your sleep tomorrow and Monday.

Stay safe.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 20778
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: thataway
Photos: Thataway
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I mentioned Tornados on the other thread. We just were put under a Tornado warning (either on the ground, or high potential) via our cell phones. By going to a Tornado web site we were able to get the warning exactly as it was issued by the weather service. I also turned on a I phone app which monitor's fire and EMS services in our area. If there is a tornado on the ground they will spot it. We also monitor the ham 2 meter frequencies of the EOC where spotters call heavy weather. We determined that the potential tornado was about 8 miles away and moving North of us

Local TV stations will also carry the specifics of tornado threats. We often carry a small portable TV on the boat, to allow us to get these special weather projections.

Heavy bands of rain on the other side of Perdido bay are about 4 miles away, with light rain here.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The C-Brats Forum Index -> Grand Adventures All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Page 2 of 3

 
     Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum



Page generation time: 0.1158s (PHP: 82% - SQL: 18%) - SQL queries: 33 - GZIP disabled - Debug on