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Help Please! Thoughts on Weather in Gulf over Next Week?
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Pat Anderson



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 8021
City/Region: Birch Bay, WA
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: Daydream
Photos: Daydream and Crabby Lou
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:36 pm    Post subject: Help Please! Thoughts on Weather in Gulf over Next Week? Reply with quote

We are in Demopolis, about to head down to Mobile, which is about a five day trip. Today (Tuesday, October 3rd) people in the TV room here at the marina were glued to the TV weather, which was talking about a tropical depression off the Gulf and the possibility of a tropical storm which might hit Saturday or Sunday. Winds in Mobile are very strong right now. We were going to leave Demopolis tomorrow, but have extended for one more day, and will play it on a day by day basis. We'd love to hear from anybody who has any thoughts on what their crystal ball says the weather in Mobile and the Gulf of Mexico for the next week or ten days might look like! Thanks!
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JamesTXSD



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 6915
City/Region: Tropical Tip of Texas
State or Province: TX
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: "Wild Blue" (sold 9/14)
Photos: Wild Blue
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Pat,

If I could predict the Gulf weather 10 days out, I would be buying lottery tickets. Here is my preferred tropical weather site...

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane

As of right now, there is no hurricane or tropical storms happening in the entire northern Atlantic. If you click further into that site for this...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/calm-next-atlantic-storm

There is still potential. They are saying the northwestern Caribbean shows the most risk of development currently, with a "near zero % chance of development before this Thursday, and a 30% chance of development through Sunday."

Not even the weather forecasters are making guesses further out than that.

The Gulf and most of the Atlantic is warmer than usual, making for the increased chance of development as lows form in that area. The best advice I can offer you is to check this site regularly. If something develops in the NW Caribbean, the eastern Gulf is more likely to be involved.

This calm that we are now experiencing does not mean that hurricane season has passed; October can still be active, and even into November. Don't spend the time worrying about this - just keep an eye towards the Caribbean.

Hope all goes smooth and easy for you on this last portion of your trip. The Florida Gulf Coast is a pretty area.

Best wishes,
Jim
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JamesTXSD



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 6915
City/Region: Tropical Tip of Texas
State or Province: TX
C-Dory Year: 2007
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: "Wild Blue" (sold 9/14)
Photos: Wild Blue
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking specifically at the Mobile area, here's the 10 day forecast...

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USAL0371:1:US

It is showing a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday, with the highest wind currently predicted to be 14mph ESE on Sunday. That does not equate to a tropical storm, but I generally don't trust weather forecasts much beyond 48 hours out. Once you get past Mobile Bay (which can be like Bellingham Bay depending on wind conditions), you are in mostly protected water as you head east.

Dr. Bob may have a more specific take on this, with his local knowledge. At this point, I don't see anything nasty in the near-term.

The Weather Channel is showing winds ENE @ 10 this evening.
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journey on



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3064
City/Region: Valley Centre
State or Province: CA
C-Dory Year: 2005
C-Dory Model: 25 Cruiser
Vessel Name: journey on
Photos: Journey On
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, as I see it, you have a few day window to get to Mobile Bay, depending on the forecast. Your ultimate destination is the Caloosahatshee Canal to load your boat and get the hell out.

And here are the options, you may think of better ones:

1. Stay put until hurricane season is over, up to a month's wait. Then complete your trip.

2. Get to Mobile Bay and wait for a week or 2 window to get to the Caloosahatshee Canal and complete your trip. This may take several weeks and Mobile Bay is on the Gulf Coast and may get hit.

3. Leave your boat where it is, go get your truck and return, load your boat and say the trip is complete.

You're going to have to go through the armpit of Florida after you leave Mobile. Protected water, yes, but good chance of storms there, I understand.

No-one can predict the appearance or path of a hurricane, at least until the season is over. Your trip is almost over, so why take chances now? Take option 1, rent a car and tour north of Demopolis, monitoring the weather until you feel comfortable. The C-Dory is a wonderful boat, but I'd hate to ride out a tropical storm in one.

Boris
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Gulfcoastjohn



Joined: 03 Oct 2017
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City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2010
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Vessel Name: CAT 'O MINE
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:50 pm    Post subject: ank Reply with quote

Pat,
We've been following your adventures, and this should be a non-event.
Just hang out north of the I-65 bridge, in one of the many ox-bows or inlets, and you'll be fine.
Any Tropical force winds will be down to 'damn the bugs' levels there.
We probably won't have any tropical storm winds at all...it will go into Central America.
Chill, have an extra sundowner on us, and relax.
As you know, I am always the outlier here, but I think you'll be fine.
We would invite you guys into our military marina if it was legal to do so.
Chill! Fun! No Worries!
you'll be fine!
John
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bobjarrard



Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 190
City/Region: Boulder City
State or Province: NV
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:04 pm    Post subject: Weather Underground 10 forecast Reply with quote

Well, Saturday and especially Sunday might be rough. Seems like you might consider moving day by day at your normal 50 mile per day rate. Maybe have a good plan for Friday. Here is the link I used (I am a subscriber for $10 per year but think it will work for you).
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/al/mobile/36601
If the radar page will open for you, I see very little in your area all the way down to Mobile. There is some weather east and west however.
Love the pictures of Baxter, did you try to teach him to use a mat on the bow?
Bob
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localboy



Joined: 30 Sep 2006
Posts: 3765
City/Region: Lake Stevens via Honolulu
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 2007
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Vessel Name: 'Au Kai (Ocean Traveler)
Photos: 'AU KAI
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I say just go for it! You only live once!! Imagine the thrills....
















Just kidding. Check the weather and be careful.

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hardee



Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 8621
City/Region: Sequim
State or Province: WA
C-Dory Year: 2005
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Vessel Name: Sleepy-C
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pat, Don't know know much stock you can put in the PNW weather guys, but just tonight KIRO 7 flicked to a view of the Gulf, and showed a Low system over Panama, and he said, This one bares watching. The Gulf water is still very warm, and the progression will be northward.

Guess it pays to be attentive.

Harvey
SleepyC Moon


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thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 15241
City/Region: Pensacola
State or Province: FL
C-Dory Year: 2006
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Vessel Name: Thisaway
Photos: Thataway
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like Jim,
I don't have a crystal ball. Today was one of the nicest days we have had this year. Didn't see any "strong winds"--maybe 10 knots.

You are 5 days from Mobile. As noted lots of places to hang out--if you really get stuck, we can get extra anchors to you, or even a trailer to get the boat out of the water.

I watch the Tropical weather daily--we are far more at any risk from a storm than folks in Demopolis.

The hurricane season lasts two more months--until the end of November. But storms can happen any time of the year. We loose more boats in Northers than in hurricanes on the average year in this part of the woods.

The "Armpit of Florida" geez..--come on Boris--have you ever even been here? We have lived in this area 25 years.. We consider it to be the best part of Florida.

We won't know exactly what will happen with Invest 90L for 5 days. There is a possible chance of tropical storm force winds. On the site I follow the most, there is only one model which shows winds over tropical storm force at 5 days--(one shows a potential Cat 2 hurricane but it is an outlier, which is rarely correct).

Current tracks show Invest 90L going to the West of Mobile--but this can change--and Windy shows it going ashore East of Panama City at 8 PM on Sunday (5 days). There is absolutely no way at this time to be 100% sure of where it is going if it is even going to be a significant storm, or even a storm...

My advice is to continue as you have planed coming South. Plenty of good holding in oxbows and creeks along the way. Keep in touch daily--I get a private report which is quite good, if we are under a serious threat.

Look at "Windy.com"--

At this time we are not taking any storm precautions in the Pensacola area. If we have a storm, in back of our house is one of the best places to ride out a storm if you want to speed up and get here sooner--or we would get you out of the water if necessary. There is a very good chance of some heavy rain--but that is all of the Gulf Coast.

The biggest body of water is Mobile bay, then Pensacola Bay, on down to the bays open to the East and West toward Fort Walton and Panama City. The latter are over a week away for you, The biggest weather concern is going to be when you make the jump to cross the "Big Bend"

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Thataway
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bobjarrard



Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 190
City/Region: Boulder City
State or Province: NV
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:53 pm    Post subject: Look at "Windy.com"-- Reply with quote

I had never gone on this site but lots of folks have mentioned it, great info. Appears it is free to register and it found my home right away,
Bob
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thataway



Joined: 02 Nov 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a generalization--the predictions of possible high wind velocities have been revised downward. Only one of the models shows winds slightly above Cat 1.

The most likely tracks have shifted eastward. Tracks can be all over the place at this distance (well over 1000 miles away)

More information will be available this PM after a Air Force Reserve aircraft does some passes thru this system--just named as Tropical Depression 16.

My advice would be to crank up the RPM and get on down. However I don't see any significant winds between you and us in the next 5 days from the information available currently.

Another beautiful day in Paradise here in Pensacola. The leaves are barely moving--the Angel is dry when she comes in the house after a romp on the grass. Temperature is 78.

We do have clear weather thru Friday. Saturday thunderstorms, with some rain, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The same forecast is in play for Mobile and Mobile Bay.
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B&B Burks



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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City/Region: Green Valley
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Vessel Name: C-Pearl
Photos: SEA PAL
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Guys,
I would enjoy Demopolis. No reason to rush into harms way. As the weather forcast updates you can make your plans for
continuing the adventure. Just my idea and way to solve the
situation.
Bob
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B&B Burks



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 94
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Vessel Name: C-Pearl
Photos: SEA PAL
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Guys,
I would enjoy Demopolis. No reason to rush into harms way. As the weather forcast updates you can make your plans for
continuing the adventure. Just my idea and way to solve the
situation.
Bob
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PaulNBriannaLynn



Joined: 26 Oct 2012
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forecast has is shifted further to the east today. Its reminiscent of hurricane Hermine last year, which came up over the panhandle of Florida as a hurricane and then directly over the top of us as a tropical storm. We'll be watching this one over the next few days.

I don't see any reason to rush. Should be to the north of you Monday or Tuesday and nothing behind it to worry about on the forecast. Inland water is the place to be not on the coast.

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2009 Parker 23SE sold 10/2017
2003 22 cruiser sold 3/2016
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JamesTXSD



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 6915
City/Region: Tropical Tip of Texas
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Vessel Name: "Wild Blue" (sold 9/14)
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The latest computer models...





Still too far out time-wise to make an "accurate guess" (oxymoron).
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