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Predictive Wave Height Matrix Alternative To NOAA Forecasts
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C-Nile



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:15 pm    Post subject: Predictive Wave Height Matrix Alternative To NOAA Forecasts Reply with quote

I completed the design of a matrix, customized for the area of Long Island Sound we frequent, that shows the maximum potential wave heights dependent upon wind direction, velocity and fetch. All we have to know is the wind speed, direction and our intended destination, and we can use the matrix to predict the potential maximum Sea State with no surprises.

[url] http://www.c-brats.com/modules.php?set_albumName=C-Nile&id=Potential_Maximum_Wave_Height_Long_Island_Sound&op=modload&name=gallery&file=index&include=view_photo.php

We correlated our results with LIS buoy data and actual experience. So why go through the trouble to do this?

Over half the time, whenever we made future plans for boating on Long Island Sound, NOAA forecasts for wave heights did not reflect actual conditions -- on many occasions, even one hour before leaving for the shore! This has been totally unacceptable. We don't want to start a 60 mile trip going into a three foot head sea that could worsen, when we are expecting two feet or less. It's not a matter of safety, but rather a matter of comfort. Boating is supposed to be fun, and it is not fun taking 4 or 5 hours to go 60 miles in difficult head seas, and making constant adjustments. Accordingly, we began late last year to disregard NOAA predictions for wave height, paying more attention to wind velocity and direction at the moment we leave our house. When we arrive at the water, we will set the direction we travel based upon the wind direction and velocity at that time. We can also assess the Sea State visually based on the Beaufort Scale to further corroborate wind speed and velocity with NOAA current conditions. Generally, we will not venture out in conditions exceeding a three feet head sea (we would go out in three foot following seas, or head seas with long wave periods if the distance was reasonable), but as I said, this is more a matter of comfort than safety. The entire C-Dory family and its cousin, The Marinaut 215, are extraordinarily seaworthy boats.

What do you think about this, and has anyone taken similar action?

[/url]

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tpbrady



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have done the same thing in my head for the areas we frequent as I always thought the one NOAA buoy in that area was on a short chain. A significant wave height of 2 feet really meant 3-4 feet on average. Winds and their direction meant more than anything else.

Some of the guide books have some decent weather sections that discuss how to interpret local weather observations and forecasts, and some kind of gloss over it. The one I am most familiar with is: http://www.amazon.com/Weather-Climate-Prince-William-Sound/dp/B006OTVI0C. I got this after about 4 years of playing around in Prince William Sound, and it is a pretty good reference. Maybe you can add to your chart and come up with a book, but the chart is a good start. Local knowledge is everything and most often learned by experience. I would sure like to at least read about it first. It makes the experience not quite as surprising.

Tom

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C-Nile



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your feedback, Tom. You are right about local knowledge. Our home port is Niantic Bay on the Connecticut shore. Long Island Sound is extremely shallow, unlike the PNW. Nearly opposite from us to the Southeast is The Race, with swift tidal movements. Off to the Southwest is Plum Gut, with swift tidal movements. There is quite a fetch behind Plum Gut from the shallow waters of Gardner's Bay, which in certain conditions can kick up standing waves as high as 8 feet. Niantic is sandwiched between a major tidal river to our West (CT River) and the Thames River to our East. Wind direction can come from nearly all directions of the compass, but the predominant direction tends to come from the Northwest more often than not. I have asked a lot of people for advice (one with thousand's of hours of experience piloting boats of varied sizes) and they all tell me it is difficult to predict Sea State in our area of the Sound. This matrix is actually my giving up. It's too complex for a person of my limited experience. If the NOAA can't do it, yet they are very accurate for other areas, perhaps no one can get a handle on it. So my thought was to use wind speed and direction to determine maximum potential wave height, and adjust my plans accordingly. The thing we did get right is choosing our boat. The Marinaut and C-Dory line of boats are well-suited for shallow bays and rivers, and for the protected waters of our area.
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Foggy



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem I see with predicting sea state with your matrix for the duration of a cruise using wind speed, direction and your destination follows.

First, this seems it may be valid for short cruises only. My experience is wind speed varies considerably in local areas vs what is predicted and does not take into account whether the wind is building or ebbing. Then, as in bays and near shore, the affect of land masses with topography variation, proximity of land to windward for a sheltered route vs more unprotected open water could make you vulnerable.

And, your matrix does not take into account any information that may be helpful from weather radar, surface analysis with isobars or even VHF contact with mariners in your area of concern.

That said, we each are responsible for making our own decisions on when to depart. I applaud your efforts in attempting to simplify a complex phenomena. I'm not sure I'd bet my gingles on your matrix and I personally know of some who "took a chance" and never retuned. I prefer to "wait for weather". So, be careful out there.

Aye.

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C-Nile



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Foggy wrote:
The problem I see with predicting sea state with your matrix for the duration of a cruise using wind speed, direction and your destination follows.

First, this seems it may be valid for short cruises only. My experience is wind speed varies considerably in local areas vs what is predicted and does not take into account whether the wind is building or ebbing. Then, as in bays and near shore, the affect of land masses with topography variation, proximity of land to windward for a sheltered route vs more unprotected open water could make you vulnerable.

And, your matrix does not take into account any information that may be helpful from weather radar, surface analysis with isobars or even VHF contact with mariners in your area of concern.

That said, we each are responsible for making our own decisions on when to depart. I applaud your efforts in attempting to simplify a complex phenomena. I'm not sure I'd bet my gingles on your matrix and I personally know of some who "took a chance" and never retuned. I prefer to "wait for weather". So, be careful out there.

Aye.


Actually, my matrix does take into account water depth, land mass, length of fetch -- that is why I started that it was customized for and correlated to prevalent conditions in my area. Also, it lists maximum potential wave heights assuming that the duration of wind speed is long enough to achieve those results. Obviously, I'm going to take into account radar weather maps, frontal boundaries, general area weather discussions and head for the leeward side of islands -- all of which constitutes good seamanship. As for being safe, there are several good reasons why I will:
1. I have the discipline not to venture out when conditions do not meet my very conservative thresholds. That's the whole point of not making advanced plans.
2. Common sense: if I go out on a two-day trip, but know a cold front was going to push its way through on the day of my return, that would be pretty foolish of me to take that trip under those circumstances
3. My plans are not your plans; they are customized for my area based upon my local knowledge. If you boat on the Great Lakes, that is very dangerous waters indeed where storms can quickly whip up waves that could easily overwhelm small craft. Get stuck out in open water, and a person could perish. My area is highly protected, albeit the surrounding shores are nearly flat. It is a highly congested area with literally hundred's of areas to seek safe shelter within our 60-mile cruising area. If a surprise thunderstorm whipped up, we could duck into areas of safety in time to safely wait it out for as long as necessary.

This matrix customized for my area is only one of the many tools I have available that contributes to good seamanship. Really -- our boat is well equipped to mitigate boating risks. We use radar, listen for NOAA weather alerts, which they do get right, and we know our area.

I'll confess though that what I have learned was that I must never fully trust technology such as electronic charts, NOAA predictions -- even myself. There is no substitute for good seamanship as basically what you had stated as well as many experienced boaters on this site. So thank you for your feedback and concern for my safety.
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rogerbum



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just out of interest, have you ever tried Swellwatch to look at their wave height and period forecasts? That's what I use almost exclusively for my predictions out here and I've found it to be very accurate. See this link for the Long Island Sound area. At least out here in the PacNW, I've found their predictions to be good 3-4 days out (not so good after that). In particular, if they have a nice 3day window of low swells, I can almost be certain the middle day in that will be great (sometimes their predictions are off by 1/2 day when the prediction is several days out).
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Hunkydory



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Generally, I've found the weather reports to error wave heights to the high side of actual with a few very noticeable exceptions that cling to the memory making the reporting seem to be the opposite. In Southeast Alaska along with the present & future weather reports come at times actual wave heights & wind speed from ship & buoy reports, these I pay very close attention to especially when out or planning to head out into the outside open gulf of Alaska.

I sure agree with Tom in the local knowledge being key & gathering that knowledge from reading about it before hand most preferable, but then if not available, the challenge explorer types love to take on & then gain & share from the experience. I also agree with C-Nile on our boats being seaworthy & think with Jolee's
& my very limited boating experience & funds in 2003, the selection & purchase of the 22 foot C-Dory for the type of cruising we visioned, to be our best decision made involving boating thus far.

An example of local knowledge making all the difference between a safe & extremely dangerous cruising day in our many thousands of miles of cruising in Southeast Alaska is making the voyage around Cape Ommaney, which is the southern tip of Baranof Island & separates Chatham Strait from the open Gulf of Alaska. Weather reports in little Port Alexander can be for less than 15 knots with winds just a few miles away as you round the Cape blowing 35 to 40 into a notorious tide creating 10 to 15 foot standing waves & the features of the Cape causing the ripping tide to flow in the opposite direction, one without knowledge of this area would think, making a ebb tide the best choice into a northwest wind & as close to the rocks of the Cape preferable to giving it a wide birth. Small boats from the local fishing lodges still choose to round this cape most every day during their short fishing season, but on the day we first attempted this rounding without local knowledge two of them, even as experienced as they both were, broached, narrowly averting disaster. Their broaching shows even the experienced with local knowledge can push one step to far, but the information those captains & others from the long line fleet shared with us got us around on the 2nd attempt very smoothly.

C-Nile, it seems you've got this matrix thing working fine for you with the type of cruising you do combined with your local knowledge. For me & especially on our Southeast Alaska cruises I can't see even a variation working well, due mainly to the choice of cruising direction for the day not variable as you describe & advanced planning a must when on an extended cruise. Of course knowing the present wind speed & direction, sea conditions, the type of clouds, tides & times, fetch & capes or points along with conditions they can create on the planned route for the day all go into the decision on heading out or perhaps another day at anchor, especially if in a place where no weather reports are accessible at all.

Jay

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Will-C



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:59 am    Post subject: Predictive Wave Height Matrix Alternative To NOAA Forecasts Reply with quote

For me on the east coast Atlantic ocean wise if it's blowing 20 mph I would stay in off the ocean. You can go out if you stay close to the shore if the wind is coming out of the west. The shallow inlets along the Jersey coast can be a problem getting back in especially with the wind against the tide. The saying for our coast is west is best east is least. The wind is usually down in the early am and comes up higher by 11:00. We try to do any open ocean traveling early to avoid the almost always upcoming wind in the afternoon. I think to travel comfortably a bigger boat can't hurt. I know our boats are seaworthy but sometimes not so comfortable if your out when it's snotty or when it's extremely sporty Smile
D.D.

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Foggy



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

C-Nile wrote:
Foggy wrote:
The problem I see with predicting sea state with your matrix for the duration of a cruise using wind speed, direction and your destination follows.

First, this seems it may be valid for short cruises only. My experience is wind speed varies considerably in local areas vs what is predicted and does not take into account whether the wind is building or ebbing. Then, as in bays and near shore, the affect of land masses with topography variation, proximity of land to windward for a sheltered route vs more unprotected open water could make you vulnerable.

And, your matrix does not take into account any information that may be helpful from weather radar, surface analysis with isobars or even VHF contact with mariners in your area of concern.

That said, we each are responsible for making our own decisions on when to depart. I applaud your efforts in attempting to simplify a complex phenomena. I'm not sure I'd bet my gingles on your matrix and I personally know of some who "took a chance" and never retuned. I prefer to "wait for weather". So, be careful out there.

Aye.


Actually, my matrix does take into account water depth, land mass, length of fetch -- that is why I started that it was customized for and correlated to prevalent conditions in my area. Also, it lists maximum potential wave heights assuming that the duration of wind speed is long enough to achieve those results. Obviously, I'm going to take into account radar weather maps, frontal boundaries, general area weather discussions and head for the leeward side of islands -- all of which constitutes good seamanship. As for being safe, there are several good reasons why I will:
1. I have the discipline not to venture out when conditions do not meet my very conservative thresholds. That's the whole point of not making advanced plans.
2. Common sense: if I go out on a two-day trip, but know a cold front was going to push its way through on the day of my return, that would be pretty foolish of me to take that trip under those circumstances
3. My plans are not your plans; they are customized for my area based upon my local knowledge. If you boat on the Great Lakes, that is very dangerous waters indeed where storms can quickly whip up waves that could easily overwhelm small craft. Get stuck out in open water, and a person could perish. My area is highly protected, albeit the surrounding shores are nearly flat. It is a highly congested area with literally hundred's of areas to seek safe shelter within our 60-mile cruising area. If a surprise thunderstorm whipped up, we could duck into areas of safety in time to safely wait it out for as long as necessary.

This matrix customized for my area is only one of the many tools I have available that contributes to good seamanship. Really -- our boat is well equipped to mitigate boating risks. We use radar, listen for NOAA weather alerts, which they do get right, and we know our area.

I'll confess though that what I have learned was that I must never fully trust technology such as electronic charts, NOAA predictions -- even myself. There is no substitute for good seamanship as basically what you had stated as well as many experienced boaters on this site. So thank you for your feedback and concern for my safety.


You certainly do not have to convince me of your capabilities or that your matrix may be helpful for planning an excursion in your waters . Try out your matrix for a few seasons and report back to us.

As has been said, all the available weather forecasting methods are nothing more thans tools intended to help us make better decisions. Relying on any of these tools too much in place of using "sea sense" is "sea folly".

Nice work.

Aye.
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C-Nile



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has been a very informative thread. If there is one thing I learned from this exercise, is that we all sail in vastly different conditions.

Foggy's area can be downright lethal on Lake Michigan. Alaska is no joyride, either. When my wife and I were cruising the San Juan islands, we could not believe the water depths we encountered there. In our area, we stick to protected waters, and have no interest whatsoever in testing the Atlantic Ocean.

Tom said that the NOAA buoy data overestimates wave heights in his area of Alaska. The Central Sound Buoy over 40 miles away seems to underestimate wave heights in my area. Perhaps it is too far away?

Roger, I took a look at your Swellwatch link. I wonder if they are using the same data points utilized by the NOAA. I've noticed that similar predictive sites do a great job off of Rhode Island, but in my neck of the woods, they fall short.

D.D. Long Island Sound can get very nasty when the winds are coming out of the west. Easterly winds in our area may even be worse.

And Jay -- your area and Foggy's is a whole different kettle of fish than my docile neck of the woods. For me, 3 to 4 foot seas is an uncomfortable inconvenience, which I am trying to avoid to promote a pleasant boating experience particularly for my wife Betty. For those of you using our little boats in big water, your seamanship is not so much about comfort as it is for survival. We are so lucky in our area, because we have all this protected waters, and once we leave port, we have three directional choices: East, South or West. And we can even go North if we make it to one of the two rivers a short distance away.

We travel about 1,000 miles a year, so I will report on the success or failure of this matrix at the end of the boating season.

Finally, there is one more thing that I can't completely get a grip on: the pros and cons of a Permatrim. When head seas get to 4 feet, it is nearly impossible to make any headway, because we are going too slowly to keep the bow down. I know Permatrim would help in those particular conditions, because we could go around 5 or 6 knots and if we maintain the proper bow angle into the wave, and we could stay pretty level. We can maintain speed into 3 foot head seas with short wave periods relying on trim tabs alone, but once it gets over 3 feet, we have to slow down, and the waves control us. So when seas exceed 3 feet, I know we would fair much better with a Permatrim. I saw that with Steve and Eileen's Irish Queen. They have Permatrim, and just blew right past us when seas were rough. On the other hand, if we maintain the discipline not to venture out when it the seas are over 3 feet with short wave periods, do we really need a Permatrim? I think for those of you in big water where you have to travel longer distances and don't have the options available to you as to which direction to travel, a Permatrim is essential. We intend to go one more season without Permatrim. We want to get more feedback from Steve and Eileen on their Permatrim experience at the end of this year, and then make a decision on whether or not to install a Permatrim in 2015.

For those of you who are interested, check out this chart of our area showing the complexity of the tidal movements to a degree, and the location of the weather stations.

http://www.c-brats.com/modules.php?set_albumName=C-Nile&id=Long_Island_Sound_Tidal_Flows_and_Weather_Stations&op=modload&name=gallery&file=index&include=view_photo.php
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AK Angler



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the picture that C-Nile referenced above...


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rogerbum



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

C-Nile wrote:
<stuff clipped>
Roger, I took a look at your Swellwatch link. I wonder if they are using the same data points utilized by the NOAA. I've noticed that similar predictive sites do a great job off of Rhode Island, but in my neck of the woods, they fall short. <stuff clipped>


I'm sure that they are using the same data from NOAA but I think they re-process it to do their own predictions of swell height, wave height and swell period. I've found it to be more accurate and detailed (both in time and space) than the corresponding graphical forecasts I get from NOAA out here. Of course, your mileage may vary.
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Will-C



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:49 am    Post subject: Predictive Wave Height Matrix Alternative To NOAA Forecasts Reply with quote

I have run across from Block Island to Montauk under small craft advisory conditions. I'd have to say that was the worst conditions I have ever been in as far as boating is concerned. The next day also small craft advisory conditions we ran from Montauk over to Cockles Harbor on Shelter Island that was no day in the park either. I'm well aware of how rough it can be up there. We made the mistake of listening to someone (a pilot) about a weather window etc. Like I said if it's blowing 20 mph and we are not on a river or the inter coastal we wait. We have learned that we like boating a lot better traveling in 15 mph or less wind conditions. That's our matrix. My wife and I have agreed no more traveling under a small craft advisory conditions. She really does not like it when she is too scared to be sea sick. The hell with the schedule. Good luck with fine tuning your matrix
D.D.
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C-Nile



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Predictive Wave Height Matrix Alternative To NOAA Foreca Reply with quote

Will-C wrote:
I have run across from Block Island to Montauk under small craft advisory conditions. I'd have to say that was the worst conditions I have ever been in as far as boating is concerned. The next day also small craft advisory conditions we ran from Montauk over to Cockles Harbor on Shelter Island that was no day in the park either. I'm well aware of how rough it can be up there. We made the mistake of listening to someone (a pilot) about a weather window etc. Like I said if it's blowing 20 mph and we are not on a river or the inter coastal we wait. We have learned that we like boating a lot better traveling in 15 mph or less wind conditions. That's our matrix. My wife and I have agreed no more traveling under a small craft advisory conditions. She really does not like it when she is too scared to be sea sick. The hell with the schedule. Good luck with fine tuning your matrix
D.D.


My wife and I agree with you 100%, albeit if the wind direction is favorable, we can travel in greater winds to sheltered locations close by. We will not ever go out in small craft advisory warnings, and if the seas exceed 3 feet, we will not venture out either. The matrix will give us an idea of potential maximum wave heights based on wind speed and direction, so in many cases, it could make the decision not to venture out that much easier. It is also a good predictive tool to project wave heights on forecasted wind speeds and directions. While the NOAA seems to get it wrong for wave heights, they seem to be more accurate on predicting wind speed and direction into the future.


Last edited by C-Nile on Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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C-Nile



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rogerbum wrote:
C-Nile wrote:
<stuff clipped>
Roger, I took a look at your Swellwatch link. I wonder if they are using the same data points utilized by the NOAA. I've noticed that similar predictive sites do a great job off of Rhode Island, but in my neck of the woods, they fall short. <stuff clipped>


I'm sure that they are using the same data from NOAA but I think they re-process it to do their own predictions of swell height, wave height and swell period. I've found it to be more accurate and detailed (both in time and space) than the corresponding graphical forecasts I get from NOAA out here. Of course, your mileage may vary.


I hear what you are saying. It might be worth my while to test Swellwatch out this season, particularly since it has the potential for being a good forecasting tool.
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