09/26 - 09/28 - NC Gathering

[snal]

Just talked to Patrick and Donna...they are on the road near Hickory...no rain yet but they've heard that they'll likely hit it at Raleigh.

[Al & Pat Parker]

Hi Nick, Marcia, David, et al,
I had email contact with Tracy last nite a few times re: your situation.
We're located on the Neuse, about 8 mi. downstream from New Bern, and our boat is in Duck Creek Marina, across the river from downtown NB. Water was up there last nite, had hit a high level at about 4PM, was down a few inches when we ckd the boat at 7PM. Our levels may not be quite as high as Oriental, which is downriver about 25 mi. from New Bern. NE winds always create a "wind tide" as the mouth of the Neuse is at the SW corner of Pamlico Sound, and there's probably 75 mi. of open water to the NE.
We monitor a few websites to ck conditions, I'll paste them in here for interested folks. The best for easy info is the Oriental Town Dock site, they have webcams, the one at the Dock now shows Hodges Street, and the dock our 3 boats were at Sun nite, under water.
http://www.towndock.net/
You can surf around that site for fairly up-to-date weather info specifically on Oriental conditions.
the next on is a State of NC data site, info taken from a monitoring stn at marker #9 on the Neuse, which is probably 15mi. from Oriental, but will show water levers every 15 minutes, in the far right column. The actual number, a depth at that point, doesn't help much, but you can see how it has changed, peaking a few times since yesterday, and presently down maybe 3" from the peak.
http://nc.water.usgs.gov/qw/0209265810.txt
A lot of numbers there, but if you can sort things out it might help. Look at the column headings.
For actual wind strength and direction for this part of the Neuse, again it should be close to Oriental's, we watch a private monitoring stn near us. He shows wind speed that has run in the 25-30mph range since yesterday, with gusts well over that, and maybe a bit higher this AM.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNCNEWBE1
He has a webcam showing his dock on the Neuse, under water now.
Of course anyone can use Weather Underground, or whatever your favorite is, and punch in "Oriental, NC" and get their forecast and maybe present conditions.
Hope this will help you folks who are planning to head this way for the gathering. It does look like things will moderate, and wind direction will become more favorable for Sat. festivities, tho' it may shower some.
Nick, Marcia, and David, it was nice meeting you Sun., sorry you got into these weather problems, but glad you got to see Cape Lookout, Beaufort, etc., and stayed safe. Have a good "haul" back to Oriental, and enjoy the better weather that's coming.

[Dragonfly]

Larry, Don't go to the Ramp in Oriental tonight ! Go park on the back side of the Fire Dept on Straight road. Like your going to Whittakers Pointe. The Ramp as you have read is wet. They say it will be fine tomorrow but not tonight. If you have any problems call me. We don't want anyone else worrying over their trucks and trailers !
We will all park behind the fire station on Straight Road then shuttle the drivers to Whittakers Pointe.
Larry and I are coming down tomorrow . Here is Mobile East Marine's number 252-745-5615 and you have my cell number. Everyone please be safe and we'll see everyone tomorrow ! Yippee..

[snal]

Patrick just called again...Carrie had called him...and it looks like the Donna Marie and Thelma Lou will be anchored out in the parking lot at Mobile East marine tonight.
Seems as though the weather events will make this an even more unforgetable weekend...."We're on a quest to have fun!" (Chevy Chase)

[tsargent]

Carol and I have decided to head down early tomorrow AM. It's only four and a half hours for us, so we'll ride this one out tonight.

We plan to make a quick stop at Mobile East and then head on down. Should we still go to the Town docks to launch? Expect we'd get there around noon. I am anticipating I'll steer the boat over to the Marina and Carol will drive the truck and trailer there? Or are there other arrangements I should plan on?

[eNORMous]

Spoke to a friend of mine this morning who must have run into Nick & Marcia last night. He said folks from Ohio who owned a C-Dory were looking for a ride to Oriental stating their boat was getting bashed at the docks and their trailer was going to sink in Oriental. Not sure what watering hole you ran into "Luke" (I call him the UV-Man), since he generally makes rounds to all the local watering holes (Clawsons, Dock House, Rib Eyes, Spouter, Beaufort Grocery, Blue Moon Bistro, Stillwater, Sharpies, etc). Yeah, you can eat pretty good in Beaufort. Hope Valkyrie weathered the subtropical cyclone unscathed.

The landing you stated is where I'll drop ANTIBODY in tomorrow to head up to Oriental via the "ditch". If you happen to need any decent wood at a decent price, Atlantic Veneer is right across the street from that landing on Front Street (across from the old Menhaden plant) - I was over there this morning snooping out some Teak and Mahogany.

[Dragonfly]

Hi all,
As far as I know we will still try to launch from Oriental ramp then park at either Whittaker Pointe Marina or on the backside of the fire dept on Straight road. Just add my number and Mobile East Marine's number to your cell phone so when who ever drives to Fire station can call to get a ride to Whittaker Pointe Marina. The have a guest car and Carrie said they will be driving folks around as well. We will leave early tomorrow it's a 3 hour drive so we will be there by noon at the very least. Everyone please be safe driving and boating ! Tracy
Mobile East Marine 252-745-5615
Tracy 919-708-8434

[Al & Pat Parker]

Hi again,
The water has gone down several inches in Oriental since 10AM, and there's even a little blue sky showing on the "mobile cam" set up on Hodges street at the Town Dock.
http://www.towndock.net/
if you click on "slide show" and select the last 3 hrs, you can see the progression. Move your mouse arrow over "latest mobilecam pic" to get it to change.
"every little thing is gonna be alright"

[marvin4239]

Wind seems to be dying down here in MHC and the water is actually calm compared to what it has been. Nick came by and we had coffee. We will be leaving sometime tommorrow for Oriental. Gonna stay one more night to get some more of this great seafood in MHC.

[Dragonfly]

Just talked to Bob on Hunk E Dory in WV/MD. They will be leaving very early tomorrow morning. Paula will have fresh shrimp for all of us tomorrow night ! Something to look forward to. Glad Nick dropped in on Marvin, hate to have his first visit here in 30 years to be so uh unforgetable before the gathering even begins ! LOL Ya'll take care, Tracy

[tsargent]

[Dragonfly]

Ok Thomas we will see you all in the morning ! Can't wait to see everyone tomorrow.. Tracy

[eNORMous]

Well, my official NVDC USCG documentation arrived today, and I am extremely excited about getting ANTIBODY in the drink!

However, I hate to say this, but this sub-tropical cyclone is going nowhere and from all looks of things is not going to move out until at least tomorrow late afternoon or evening. Seas are expected to be 6'-9', many tornadoes expected in the area throughout tonight and possibly throughout the day tomorrow. You only need to look at NOAA and the RADAR imagery to see this thing isn't moving, and bringing tons of water in from the ocean on the bad side of the cylone e.g. Neuse River northward. This is no north easter, this is a stalled out subtropical cyclone - reminds me of Ophelia - and moving at a miserable 10mph NWxNNW. Winds predicted between 15-25kts.

And, with Kyle right behind it. ARGH!

Stay dry....be safe....they're predicting flooding up through tomorrow evening.

[Dragonfly]

Looks the water level has really dropped down this afternoon in Oriental to me. This came from the Oriental weather site..

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
Tonight...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Windy. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph...Becoming east 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday...Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the middle 60s. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening... Becoming light and variable.

Saturday...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the middle 80s. Light and variable winds...Becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Sunday...Partly sunny. Highs in the middle 80s.

[eNORMous]

You're in a very unique zone. I'd prefer to trust the NOAA buoy, pressure and satellite data. I want to be in the water, but I don't want to get pounded either.

I make my decisions on boating between Hatteras and Cape Lookout based upon this site only (and because the NOAA station is less than one mile from our house). Use your own judgement. Inside the sound tucked into Oriental you'll fair better than outside of the Neuse on the coast.

Keep your eye on it. If it turns any further N than W, it will get much worse.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/zone/east/mhxmz.htm

Here's the latest GOES of the Neuse River - note the demarcation between the innner bands and the outer bands. Just use good judgement is all I'm offering.

Here's the H20 vapor loop. The Neuse is dead between the two H20 vapor zones of the cyclone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

AMZ100-260915-
554 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

SYNOPSIS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL CONTINUE PRODUCE
STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W-NW TODAY...THEN INLAND
TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WELL E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZ156-260915-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
554 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY

TONIGHT
SE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT...BECOMING S
20 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 9 SECONDS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY LATE.

FRI
S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 8 SECONDS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

FRI NIGHT
S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SAT
SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SAT NIGHT
SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.

SUN
SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

SUN NIGHT
SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

MON
NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING E. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

TUE
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.